By including two MLAs who were present at protests supporting Kathua rape-murder accused, the BJP has tried to reclaim the narrative that it fights for Jammu’s rights.
New Delhi: Monday’s long-delayed reshuffle in Mehbooba Mufti’s council of ministers in Jammu and Kashmir is a clear sign of two things. First, the PDP-BJP alliance is on its last legs – the divorce will happen; when, remains the question.
Second, in the Kathua rape-murder incident, where an eight-year-old was allegedly kept in confinement, raped and killed, the BJP has finally found a way to revive its floundering political fortunes in the Jammu region.
It’s also clear that the reshuffle has an RSS stamp.
PDP-BJP alliance to end?
Political exigency – the lure of finally coming to power in a state that has always been part of its electoral narrative for the BJP and stopping the National Conference from retaining power for the PDP – brought the two “unnatural” allies together. From day one, even when the soft-spoken, politically much-savvier Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was head of the government, it was very clear that the two parties were never going to think alike. Adding to the perception was the fact that the PDP had won almost all its seats in the Muslim-majority Kashmir region, while the BJP had emerged the predominant voice of the Hindu-majority Jammu region.
It was thus natural that while its core vote bank expected the PDP to persist with its pro-separatist line, the BJP voters, especially those who saw in the party’s rise to power – even if in an alliance – the possibility of more political voice to the Jammu region, hoped the party would not pay second fiddle to the partner from the Valley.
But, the BJP ministers and MLAs let the people down, with many in Jammu holding the opinion that the party gave away too much to the PDP for the sake of remaining in power. The anger with BJP ministers, many of whom were clearly not in control of their own departments, was rising with each passing day.
The PDP was facing a similar charge from its voters in the Valley, with Mehbooba being accused of being too close to New Delhi for the sake of retaining power.
However, Kathua changed it all. By taking a strong stand on the issue, including setting up an SIT of the crime branch, the PDP, which had lost much of its political capital since coming to power, sent out a clear signal that BJP couldn’t be the predominant voice in the government.
On the other hand, by allowing two of its then-ministers, Lal Singh and Chander Prakash Ganga, and half a dozen MLAs to participate in protests organised by the Hindu Ekta Manch, which was seen as being in support of the accused, the BJP was clearly trying to regain lost ground.
The removal of deputy chief minister Nirmal Singh, often accused of being soft on Mehbooba, has sent a clear signal that she will have to contend with a stronger and vocally more aggressive ally.
Now that both parties have regained some composure and think they may have made their voters somewhat happy, both will look for the perfect opportunity to end the alliance. Considering the stakes, this will not happen immediately. But it will happen, eventually. There is no way Mehbooba can go into the 2019 Lok Sabha elections or the next assembly elections with her party in alliance with the BJP.
Has Kathua actually helped the BJP?
Yes; the party may not have actually thought so, but the protests and the sharply-communal discourse on social media, and, in some cases, even the mainstream media, has only worked to help revive, or at least stem the fall in the BJP’s political fortunes.
The polarisation that has happened is something that is comparable to the 2008 Amarnath Yatra land agitation. This is the main reason why the clamour for justice for the rape victim is muted while voices seeking justice for the accused are reverberating in the corridors of the Supreme Court too.
For a party which was losing support almost on a daily basis, with the main charge being that it was playing second fiddle to the Kashmiri leadership, the protests came as godsend.
Many voters, disillusioned due to the poor performance of the elected MLAs of the BJP, are suddenly no longer unhappy. They are elated the party has shown some spine in standing up to the “Kashmiri” PDP – forgetting that the decision to hand over the rape case to the crime branch was taken by their own government.
Many are also sure that the case will eventually be transferred to the CBI, something that they feel will finally show Mehbooba her “real place”.
By including two MLAs who were also present at the spot when Lal Singh and Ganga made the speeches that allegedly led to their ouster from the government, the BJP has again tried to reclaim the lost narrative that it fights for Jammu’s rights.