Srinagar/Anantnag/Shopian: In Bijbehara, hometown of the Muftis in Jammu and Kashmir’s Anantnag district, Mansour Khan, sitting under a tree next to the grave of former chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, believes the election of Mehbooba Mufti from Anantnag-Rajouri seat is crucial for the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
“Bohot, bahot zaroori hai (very, very important),” says Mansoor, a businessman who has been with the party since its inception in 1999.
Mansour’s assessment comes from the fact that over the last five years, ever since Mehbooba, Mufti’s daughter, lost her last election from the constituency (previously just Anantnag), a lot has changed for the PDP.
The party’s leadership has practically hollowed out with an exodus led by former minister Altaf Bukhari, who now has his own outfit — J&K Apni Party.
Further, the PDP was deserted within the INDIA bloc when its rival National Conference (NC) and the Congress decided to go ahead and announce their seat-sharing formula for J&K’s six Lok Sabha seats. Add to this the fact that Mehbooba — in her stronghold of Anantnag— came third in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Yet, Mehbooba remains a factor in the constituency that cannot be taken lightly. Her extensive campaigning has put her in stiff competition with her main rival, the NC.
Sheikh Rashid, another PDP supporter, strongly argues that a win is certainly important for the party to revive from down south towards north in the Kashmir Valley. “We need a person like Mehbooba Mufti to be our voice in Parliament,” he says.
He believes that the PDP is likely to get a lot of “sympathy votes” for being written off, attacked, and sidelined by the NC.
NC leader Omar Abdullah had in an 8 March press conference announced that his party would contest from all three Lok Sabha seats in Kashmir and not leave any for its INDIA bloc partner, the PDP.
The two parties were also part of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), formed in the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, but is now said to have fragmented.
After NC leaders attacked the PDP during the Lok Sabha poll campaign, Mehbooba was quick to portray herself as a victim.
“We had left the (seat-sharing) decision to Farooq Abdullah. We would not mind even if they had contested all the seats, but they should have at least consulted us. They should not have demeaned our party and workers by saying that they would see our behaviour in the Lok Sabha polls before deciding on an alliance for the assembly elections (due later this year),” she said in early April, while announcing the PDP’s three candidates for Kashmir’s Lok Sabha seats.
Fruit seller Omer, from Shopian district, says that for him and his family there is no other choice but the PDP. One of the factors that still hurts the PDP is its past alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from 2014 to 2018. However, Omar says, “all have been hand in glove with the BJP at some point or the other”.
Another shopkeeper is quick to point out that Mehbooba was strong at one point, but her support in Shopian, after her alliance with the BJP, dropped.
Political analysts from J&K as well as leaders from the PDP and some other parties agree that Mehbooba’s chances would brighten only if high voting takes place in south Kashmir, which comprises Kulgam, Anantnag and Shopian districts.
In the previous Lok Sabha poll, Anantnag had seen a voter turnout of just 9 per cent.
Political analyst Zafar Choudhary, commenting on the prospects of Mehbooba Mufti, told ThePrint: “These elections have come as an opportunity for Mehbooba to rebuild her party. More than the prospect of winning, the dumping (sidelining) of her by the PAGD and INDIA bloc has helped her weave a narrative around victimhood.”
“The PDP’s decision of aligning with the BJP (post-2014 J&K polls), raising the PDP flag after Mufti Sayeed’s death (in 2016), then returning to the BJP without any condition and handling the (unrest) situation in 2016-17 had left the PDP deeply fractured. Mehbooba has been able to resurrect some structure for the party in central and south Kashmir. Whether she wins or loses elections, she has been able to bring the PDP back to some relevance,” he added.
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Why NC has an edge
NC workers, on the other hand, are very confident about the victory of Mian Altaf, who is pitted against Mehbooba from Anantnag-Rajouri.
The NC’s cadre in south Kashmir, which remains intact despite little political activity over the last five years, gives the party an edge. Add to it support from the Congress which finished second in the previous election in the erstwhile Anantnag constituency.
“I am getting good support across districts. In Rajouri-Poonch, there is a lot of support. Even in south Kashmir, there is enough support. Today, G.A.Mir of the Congress was campaigning for me in Dooru. In Kulgam, (CPI-M’s) M.Y. Tarigami is bringing a lot of votes, too,” Mian Altaf told ThePrint.
Tarigami and Mir hold substantial following in their areas and can make a significant impact in the election.
Sources close to Altaf told ThePrint that he began campaigning with the view that Mehbooba would have strong support across the three districts of Kulgam, Shopian and Anantnag. “However, while campaigning we found that her support is largely restricted to Bijbehara and a few parts of Anantnag,” said a source.
While the NC’s traditional voter base gets its strength in south Kashmir, a candidate like Mian Altaf, with a significant following among the tribals of J&K, especially the Gujjar-Bakerwal community, gets an edge in the region.
The Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat comprises five districts. Anantnag, Kulgam and parts of Shopian district in Kashmir, and Poonch and parts of Rajouri district in Jammu division.
Together, the five districts are estimated to have 19 percent Gujjar-Bakerwal population, according to the 2011 Census. However, the twin districts of Rajouri and Poonch alone have 35 percent population from the community.
While some PDP members have alleged that the NC has used religion to secure votes, the latter is banking on the Gujjar-Bakarwal vote. Though he comes from Ganderbal in central Kashmir, Altaf is from a family with religious and political influence.
In early May, when election to the Anantnag-Rajouri seat was postponed from 7 May to 25 May owing to weather conditions, NC leaders had alleged that it was done to stop the Gujjar-Bakarwal community from voting. The community tribals usually migrate from the plains to the mountains by that time.
Calling it a conspiracy, Omar had said: “This decision is a well-thought-out conspiracy because they want to snatch the vote of our Gujjar-Bakarwal brothers… They thought the Gujjar-Bakarwals would take their cattle and go higher, and the National Conference would not get their vote.”
The Centre’s decision to grant Scheduled Tribe status to Pahari people is also said to have upset the Gujjar-Bakarwals. The Apni Party has fielded Zaffar Manhas, a Pahari, from Anantnag-Rajouri.
The Paharis make up 8 percent of the J&K population and comprise both Muslims and Hindus, with the latter estimated to be marginally better in terms of their numerical strength. The nomadic tribes of Gujjar and Bakarwal follow Islam and were declared as Scheduled Tribes in 1991.
Choudhary told ThePrint that “the demand jointly coming in from Apni Party, BJP, People’s Conference (PC) and DPAP (Democratic Progressive Azad Party) for rescheduling of polling from 7 May to 25 May was quick to trigger suspicion among the Gujjar community”.
“Many in the community alleged that elections were sought to be deferred to exclude the Gujjars from polling, as early May is the time when the Gujjars and Bakarwals begin moving to the upper reaches of the Pir Panjal as part of their annual migration,” he said.
“Activists have silently worked on urging the community to delay migration or return to cast their vote. This appears to have worked.”
The Gujjar-Bakarwals have found themselves in an important position this election, with delimitation giving them a sizable vote in the Lok Sabha.
Where the BJP stands
While the BJP has not fielded candidates on Kashmir’s three Lok Sabha seats, its local leadership has been busy campaigning for the Anantnag-Rajouri candidate of the Apni Party, which is considered close to the BJP.
However, the BJP’s absence was barely felt in the campaign as all parties were busy accusing each other of being hand in glove with the BJP.
Omar Abdullah has termed the PDP as “BJP’s C team” and has called the parties of Altaf Bukhari, Ghulam Nabi Azad (DPAP) and Sajjad Lone (PC) as “BJP’s B team”. Azad, too, has called the NC and the PDP as the “BJP’s B team”.
Bukhari’s candidate is Zaffar Manhas, a Pahari. While there is no official alliance between the BJP and the Apni Party, the former is actively campaigning for the latter.
When asked about BJP workers supporting him, Bukhari in an interview told ThePrint: “We have no alliance (with the BJP), but we have appealed to everyone for support because we are a new party. Our narrative has been accepted and therefore, people are voting in such large numbers.”
He went on to call the BJP a “natural ally” for Apni Party in the current circumstances.
Meanwhile, BJP leaders campaigning for the Apni Party, especially in a bid to attract Pahari voters, have little confidence in Manhas’ victory.
A BJP leader from the constituency told ThePrint: “It seems to be a close fight between Mehbooba Mufti and Mian Altaf. We tried very hard but our vote is not getting transferred to the bat (Apni Party poll symbol). The Hindus of Rajouri-Poonch and the Paharis wanted a person on the symbol of the lotus (BJP). But they have been disappointed. Many Hindus might not even turn up to vote, who otherwise would have.”
The leader added that “this Lok Sabha election is important for the PDP’s revival”.
(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)
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