From time-tested friends to foes — how BJD, YSRCP fell victim to BJP’s expansion plans

BJP ended 24-year BJD rule in Odisha after alliance talks failed, while NDA ally TDP dislodged YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh. Both BJD & YSRCP had backed BJP’s legislative agenda.

File photos of PM Modi with Jagan (L) and Patnaik (R) | Representational image | ANI

New Delhi: Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP were among the parties that stood firmly behind the Narendra Modi-led NDA government in its second term without entering into a formal alliance with the BJP.

The two non-aligned parties voted in favour of NDA presidential nominee Droupadi Murmu and opposed the no-confidence motion brought against the Modi government in 2023. They also supported most of the BJP’s legislative agenda in Parliament, from the Delhi Services bill and CAA to Abrogation of Article 370. The BJD had also supported demonetisation.

That is not to say that the two parties did not oppose any legislation proposed by the BJP. On the triple talaq bill, the BJD supported the law while the YSRCP opposed it. Similarly, both parties had opposed the land acquisition bill in 2015.

Now, both the non-aligned parties find themselves fending off either against the BJP or its ally — Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, as is the case with the YSRCP.

With BJP now relying on allies TDP and JD(U) to remain in power at the Centre, opposition parties have pointed to how it expanded its footprint at the cost of regional allies, from Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) in Bihar and undivided Shiv Sena in Maharashtra to Akali Dal in Punjab and JJP in Haryana. While it engineered a split in the Sena and dumped the JJP just before the general election, the BJP is said to have used LJP (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan to weaken ally Nitish Kumar in the Bihar assembly elections.

Odisha: BJP & BJD

In Odisha, the BJP dislodged the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD government by winning 78 of the total 147 assembly seats, just four above the majority mark, as against the BJD’s 51. With this, the BJP is now positioned to install its first chief minister in Odisha.

In the assembly, BJD’s vote share now stands at 40.22 percent and BJP’s at 40.07 percent.

Even in terms of Lok Sabha seats, the BJD despite having been in power in the state since 2000, was not able to win a single seat. This marked its worst performance in Lok Sabha elections since the party’s formation. It did, however, secure 37.5 percent of the votes polled in the state in the Lok Sabha elections, compared to the BJP’s 20 seats and 45 percent vote share, and the Congress’s 1 seat and 12.5 percent vote share. 

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJD had won 12 and BJP 8 seats in the state. While in the assembly elections held simultaneously that year, BJP won only 23 seats as against the BJD’s 112. 

Though BJP and BJD held multiple rounds of talks in a bid to formalise a pre-poll alliance, BJP sources said the talks did not materialise since Amit Shah and the Odisha BJP were opposed to it on account of anti-incumbency against sitting BJD MLAs.

In the early days of the campaign in Odisha, Modi had praised Naveen Patnaik as the ‘most popular CM’ in the country.

However, by the time the campaign entered its final leg, Modi made indirect attacks on the BJD by taking aim at Patnaik’s close confidant and former IAS officer V.K. Pandian, who quit the service and officially joined the BJD last October. Modi even went to the extent of saying that if the BJP is voted to power in Odisha, it would “constitute a committee” to look into the reasons behind Patnaik’s deteriorating health. Patnaik responded by saying that if Modi was so concerned about his health, he should just pick up the phone and dial him.

Amit Shah, too, cited Pandian’s ethnic background as a Tamilian to appeal to voters’ Odia identity. Pandian’s involvement in state affairs, along with the issue of the keys to the Jagannath Temple Ratna Bhandar, were among the key highlights of the BJP’s poll campaign in the state.

In response to a question about the BJP dumping its allies after expanding its footprint in a state, a party leader from Odisha told ThePrint, “In politics, alliances are made for the expansion of one’s own party and to share power in terms of governance.

“When Patnaik thought he could win a mandate without us, he dumped BJP in 2009. Sushma Swaraj had told him then that he would repent his decision. He ruled the state without BJP from 2009 till 2024. BJP has now emerged as the single largest party in Odisha. What is wrong in it?”

Giving his assessment of why alliance talks with the BJD failed, BJP leader and former Union minister Jual Oram said, “There was massive anti-incumbency against the BJD. We had opposed an alliance with the BJD from day one, sensing that there was momentum in favour of the BJP. Why would BJP then make a concession by aligning with the BJD?”

Andhra Pradesh: TDP, BJP & YSRCP

Similarly, in Andhra Pradesh, BJP ally TDP dislodged the YSRCP by winning 135 of 175 assembly seats and 45.6 percent vote, compared to the YSRCP’s 11 seats and 39 percent vote. TDP allies BJP and Jana Sena won 8 and 21 assembly seats, respectively.

The YSRCP had swept the state in the 2019 assembly elections, winning 151 seats as against the TDP’s 23. In the Lok Sabha polls held simultaneously that year, it won 22 of the 25 seats in the state, while the TDP won only 3.

This time around, TDP also improved its Lok Sabha tally by winning 16 seats followed by YSRCP with 4, BJP with 3 and Jana Sena with 2 seats.

The new ruling alliance in Andhra Pradesh will be led by TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu, who during a public meeting in 2019 had called Modi a “terrorist”. This was a little over a year after the TDP walked out of the BJP-led NDA over differences with the Modi government.

Though they were not formally allies until earlier this year, the BJP did not take a position after the Andhra Pradesh CID arrested Naidu in September 2023 in connection with the alleged multi-crore skill development scam. It was only in March this year that the BJP sensing a statewide sympathy wave for Naidu formalised its alliance with the TDP.

Asked about the alliance with TDP, a senior BJP leader from the state told ThePrint, “For the past year-and-a-half, Naidu and Kalyan had been pushing for an official announcement of an alliance but the BJP leadership said it was too early in order to not annoy the YSRCP.”

“The party was even considering an alliance with the Jagan-led party but the YSRCP was not ready to align with the BJP out of fear of losing its Christian vote. Ultimately, after Naidu’s arrest, BJP sensed a groundswell in favour of Naidu and decided to officially join hands with the TDP,” the leader added.

The BJP leader also admitted that the party has in the past allied with regional players, the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu for instance, with an aim to expand its footprint in a particular state.

(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)