Patna: Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD) president Upendra Kushwaha’s meeting Thursday with Union Home Minister Amit Shah has fanned speculations about the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cobbling up an alliance in Bihar ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP called it a courtesy call, with former state unit chief Sanjay Jaiswal telling ThePrint, “The meeting was not about alliances, It was a courtesy call because Upendraji had expressed his desire to meet Shahji.” Sources said it was a part of the BJP’s strategy to tie up with smaller parties to contest against the Mahagathbandhan or the grand alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
Jaiswal, who attended Thursday’s meeting, said the BJP will have alliances for the 2024 polls, “but the decision will be taken by the parliamentary board and I am not competent to comment on it”.
Another senior BJP leader told ThePrint on the condition of anonymity, “Alliance talks for the 2024 Lok Sabha have already been initiated. We have held the first round of talks with Chirag Paswan (Lok Janshakti Party), Mukesh Sahani of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and Upendra Kushwaha.”
“There have been no talks so far with Jitan Ram Manjhi of the Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S). These smaller parties have the support of one caste. They enjoy influence over one caste and will play a key role in attracting its votes to the BJP,” said the leader.
HAM-S is a part of the RJD-led grand alliance. However, Manjhi also met Shah earlier this month, though he claimed later that he did so to seek a Bharat Ratna for Dashrath Manjhi – the man who carved a 22-km road through the mountains.
Party sources said to ThePrint that the BJP is seeking to re-adopt the 2014 Lok Sabha strategy in Bihar when it fought without the JD(U), with smaller parties as allies. The NDA won 31 of the 40 seats in Bihar that year. CM Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) contested independently then but now is a part of the grand alliance.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP allied with Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and Kushwaha’s then outfit, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP). It won 22 of the 30 seats it contested, while the LJP won six of the seven seats it contested. The RLSP won all the three seats it contested.
On the other hand, the Tejashwi Yadav led-RJD and the JD(U) contested independently. The RJD won four seats while its allies won three – the Congress two and the NCP one. The JD(U) managed to win just two of the 39 seats it contested.
The BJP got 29.4 per cent votes, while the LJP got 6.4 per cent, and the RLSP got 3 per cent – a combined NDA secured 38.8 per cent of the votes. The RJD and allies managed 29.6 per cent of the votes. The JD(U) managed just 15.8 per cent votes, according to the Election Commission data.
In the 2020 assembly polls, things changed drastically. The BJP-led alliance – including the JD(U), the VIP and the HAM-S – won 125 of the 243 seats while the grand alliance – then comprising the RJD, the Congress, and Left parties such as CPI, CPI (M), and CPI (M-L) L, won 110. The AIMIM won five seats.
In terms of the smaller players, the LJP under Chirag Paswan contested 135 seats, winning just one but bagging 5.66 per cent of the votes. The HAM-S contested seven seats and won four. The VIP contested 11 seats and won four, getting 1.52 per cent of the votes. Kushwaha formed a third alliance with the BSP but failed to win even one of the 99 seats it contested from.
The number of sitting BJP MPs is 17, leaving 23 seats open. Even though the BJP has indicated that it would like to contest most of the seats itself, it appears open to stitch together an alliance with a caste affinity.
Kushwaha & BJP no strangers
Kushwaha, who quit the JD(U) to form his own party earlier this year, is no stranger to the BJP. In 2014, his then party, the RLSP, was a part of the BJP-led alliance. Kushwaha even became a Union minister in the first Narendra Modi-led central government.
He left the alliance before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, alleging he was ignored by the BJP. While he is a face of Kushwaha leadership in Bihar, the BJP has propped another Kushwaha leader, Samrat Choudhary, as its state unit chief.
Political analysts feel Kushwaha does not have an option but to go along with that and BJP insiders said it will further strengthen the party’s claim on 6 per cent Kushwaha votes, which had largely remained with Nitish Kumar in 2014, according to media reports.
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Other smaller parties
There are a number of other smaller political outfits in Bihar that the BJP is eyeing to tie up with to counter the Nitish Kumar-Tejashwi Yadav alliance in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
In 2014, the LJP switched sides and joined the BJP-led alliance because Paswan alleged his party was ignored by the Congress in seat-sharing.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA – consisting of the BJP, the JD(U) and the LJP – won 39 of the 40 seats. The JD(U) got 16 out of 17 seats, BJP won all its 17 seats and so did the LJP which won all its six seats. Their vote percentage was over 53 per cent.
The Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, the Congress, the HAM-S, RLSP, the VIP, and sundry Left parties, secured just the Kishanganj seat which the Congress won. The combined vote percentage of Mahagathbandhan was 30.76 per cent, according to EC data.
Today, the LJP is split between Paswan’s brother and Union Minister Pashupati Kumar Paras and Chirag Paswan. However, Chirag drew huge crowds in Mokama, Gopalganj and Kurhani bypolls last year when he campaigned for BJP candidates, and is reported to have swung 6 per cent Paswan votes in favour of the BJP. In fact, the BJP went on to win both Gopalganj and Kurhani while the Mokama seat went to the RJD.
Chirag was given Z security cover by the central government earlier this year, virtually indicating how important he was, for the alliance.
Chirag and his uncle, Paras, are still engaged in a war of words. “We do not care what the BJP does with his (Chirag’s) uncle. The alliance talks are yet to be initiated. But one thing is clear. We will not be a part of an alliance which includes Nitish Kumar,” said LJP (Ram Vilas) spokesperson Ashraf Ansari to ThePrint, making it clearer which way the party will head in the 2024 elections.
Mukesh Sahani – known as ‘Son of Mallah’ – was not a full-fledged politician in 2014 but campaigned for the BJP. He shared the stage with Narendra Modi in public meetings and became the face of the fishermen community.
In 2018, he formed the VIP and a year later, joined hands with the RJD for the Lok Sabha elections. The VIP was given four seats but it failed to win even one. In the 2020 assembly polls, he was back in the BJP-led NDA, won four seats and even became a minister in the Nitish govenrment.
But his misadventure in Uttar Pradesh angered the BJP due to which he was eased out of the ministry. In UP assembly elections last year, Sahani fielded candidates from 55 seats and openly declared that his aim was to remove the BJP from the helm. The party failed to open its account in UP.
However, in the 2022 bypolls in Bihar, he proved that he had the support of at least a section of Mallahs. In Kurhani bypolls, for instance, where Sahani fielded his candidate against the JD(U) and the BJP, the VIP got more than 10,000 votes, believed to be from the Mallah community.
Sahani was given Y+ security by the central government weeks after his meeting with Amit Shah early this year. Although both the BJP and the Sahani camp are tight-lipped about alliance talks, sources said the VIP was hopeful of going with the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Mallahs constitute around 3 per cent of the population, according to the census data.
Meanwhile, former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi has had a love-hate relationship with the JD(U). Manjhi was in the JD(U) in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and lost his deposit when he contested from the Gaya reserved seat. Post 2014, he was made the CM by Nitish Kumar who had stepped down, taking responsibility for the party’s dismal performance in the Lok Sabha polls.
Manjhi rebelled against Nitish and formed his own party, the HAM-S which was a part of the BJP-led alliance in 2015 assembly polls but only Manjhi managed to win his seat. He belongs to the Musahar section of Dalits.
He was a part of the grand alliance in 2019 and his party lost all the four seats it was given. By 2020, he was back with Nitish Kumar and his party won four seats in the assembly elections.
Lately, his public outbursts have kept him in the news. He said recently that his wife had told him never to leave Nitish, describing the latter as ‘PM material’, said media reports. After a few days, he threatened to sit on dharna against the dry liquor laws. “If Sachin Pilot can do it, why cannot I?,” he reportedly asked.
Last Wednesday, he remarked that the appointment of teachers during the RJD era is much better than that during Nitish’s tenure. JD(U) sources told ThePrint that Manjhi may be seeking a better deal in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. His frequent outbursts are, however, keeping the JD(U) on guard about his future moves. Musahars constitute four per cent of the state’s population.
Amit Shah, while addressing a public rally on 2 April, hinted at this future development. “Nitishji aapki party ke log line mein khade hain (Nitishji, leaders of your party are queuing up at our door).”
Sitting MPs are likely to migrate to the BJP, said sources. There are at least two sitting JD(U) MPs who originally belonged to the BJP. There are several JD(U) lawmakers who are not sure their seats will be retained or will go to the RJD. There is at least one former RJD MP in touch with the BJP, said party sources to ThePrint.
(Edited by Smriti Sinha)
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