Exit polls show Shiv Sena is losing ground to BJP, will win fewer seats than its ally

Exit polls show Shiv Sena will manage a strike rate between 43.47% and 73.9% against BJP's 76% to 84%. Sena contested 23 seats, while BJP fought on 25.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray | Twitter: @ShivSena

Mumbai: The Shiv Sena played hardball and eventually extracted its pound of flesh from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) before forging an alliance in Maharashtra, but several exit polls indicate that the party may have ended up with a poorer strike rate than its ally.

Most exit polls have predicted the BJP-Shiv Sena to dominate Maharashtra once again, but with a slight dip in their overall tally. Further, several of them have anticipated a steeper drop for the Shiv Sena than the BJP.

The India TV-CNX exit poll says the BJP is likely to win 20 of the 25 seats it contested, amounting to a strike rate of 80 per cent. The Shiv Sena, however, may win 14 of the 23 seats it contested, a strike rate of 60.8 per cent.

This poll has also anticipated a higher vote share for the BJP at 25.18 per cent, down from 27.56 per cent in 2014. The poll expects the Shiv Sena’s vote share to drop to 17.71 per cent from 20.82 per cent.

Similarly, the Republic TV-Jan ki Baat poll pegs the BJP to win 21 seats and the Shiv Sena to win 17, with a strike rate of 84 per cent and 73.9 per cent, respectively.

Another exit poll by Sakal-Saam suggests the BJP will win 19 of the 25 seats — a strike rate of 76 per cent — while the Shiv Sena will win 10 of the 23 it contested — a strike rate of 43.47 per cent and a significant drop from its 2014 performance.

The ABP-Nielsen exit poll anticipates 17 seats each for the BJP and Shiv Sena, indicating a better performance by the latter.

In 2014, the BJP won 23 seats, the Shiv Sena won 18, while another then-NDA ally, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana got one, bringing the total tally to 42 out of the state’s 48 seats.

Shiv Sena confident better results than predictions

A Shiv Sena MP who did not wish to be named said the party is expecting to win at least 20 to 21 seats of the 23 it contested.

“There could be a slight problem in Parbhani where there was some infighting among our leaders. We are also not confident about Maval, where the NCP has fielded Ajit Pawar’s son Parth, and Raigad to a certain extent. At all other places, we should win easily,” he said.

Another senior Shiv Sena leader and also an MP said the party expects to win a minimum of 17 seats. “There are few seats that have intense competition and there’s uncertainty. These are Mumbai South, Maval and Raigad, among others,” the leader said.

“Overall, the Shiv Sena will be on a better footing in this NDA government. It is the biggest party after the BJP in the alliance. We are on better terms with the BJP now than we were in 2014, and there should be more cabinet representation too for us in this government,” added the second leader on condition of anonymity.

BJP’s growth outpacing Shiv Sena’s in Maharashtra

The BJP and Shiv Sena first forged their alliance in 1989 and initially grew on the back of each other. But, over the past 15 years, the BJP’s growth has outpaced the Shiv Sena’s threatening the latter and causing the bickering between the two allies to increase.

The Shiv Sena has especially lagged behind the BJP in assembly elections over 15 years.

In the 2004 assembly polls, the BJP won 49 per cent of the seats it contested, as against the Sena’s 39 per cent. In 2009, these figures were 39 per cent and 27.5 per cent, respectively. In 2014, when the parties fought solo for the first time in 25 years, the BJP had a strike rate of 47.5 per cent against the Sena’s 22 per cent.

The Shiv Sena’s strike rates were better than the BJP’s in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections. However, the BJP’s performance was stronger in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in which the party contested 24 seats and won 23, posting a strike rate of 95.8 per cent as against Shiv Sena’s 90 per cent. The Sena won 18 of the 20 seats it contested.