Patna: Does Lalu’s Y factor hold as strong as it has in previous elections? This is one of the most widely discussed issues in the Bihar’s political circles.
The Y factor refers to the Yadavs, who are 14 per cent of Bihar’s population and who have backed Lalu Prasad Yadav since 1990. They, along with Muslims, constitute the core support base of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).
But in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Lalu’s monopoly of the Yadav vote was challenged, with the BJP gaining sizeable support, particularly among younger members of the community.
There are already signs that the BJP may make more inroads into the Yadav vote in these Lok Sabha elections.
“This election is not about Laluji becoming the PM or even Tejashwi Yadav becoming the CM. It is about who will run Delhi,” said Vinod Kumar Yadav, a primary school teacher at Bachhwara in the Begusrai parliamentary constituency, where the fight is between Giriraj Singh of the BJP and the former JNU student union president Kanhaiya Kumar.
While Vinod insisted that it was his personal opinion, he, however, added, “But there are many in the caste who think the same way.”
The RJD, which is contesting only 19 of the 40 seats under the Grand Alliance in Bihar, has fielded eight Yadav candidates. But even its most prominent ones — such as Sharad Yadav in Madhepura and Lalu’s daughter Misa Bharti in Pataliputra — are up against strong Yadav leaders of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) like Dinesh Chandra Yadav and Ram Kripal Yadav respectively.
The party fielded non-Yadav candidates at Ujiarpur and Madhubani, which have already voted, where the BJP backed its state president Nityanand Rai and Ashok Yadav respectively, who are both Yadav leaders.
The duo has been claiming that the Yadavs in Ujiarpur and Madhubani voted for them.
“It is only where an RJD Yadav candidate is pitted against a non-Yadav NDA candidate, does the community show its loyalty towards Lalu. Elsewhere, the Yadavs are split,” a BJP leader claimed.
Also read: RJD & Congress yearn for Lalu Prasad as son Tejashwi ‘disappears’ from campaign trail
The test case at Pataliputra
The satellite town of Maner is known for the magnificent Mughal-era structures constructed in the 17th century. It is also known for its ladoos made with ghee.
In these elections, Maner, which falls under the Pataliputra parliamentary seat, is crucial for the RJD as it may provide an indication of Lalu’s grip over his community. The RJD has fielded Lalu’s daughter, Misa Bharti, who is pitted against Union Minister Ram Kripal Yadav, a former Lalu aide who has since joined the BJP.
“There are over a lakh Yadavs in Maner alone. In the Lalu heyday, when Maner was in Ara parliamentary seat, the RJD used to lead here by over 50,000 votes,” said Ranjan Prasad Yadav, a friend-turned-political foe of the RJD chief. “Now this lead has dropped to just 25,000. It is a sure indication that there is disillusionment among Yadavs for Lalu.”
Pataliputra parliamentary seat was created after delimitation in 2008 and it has three assembly segments that were once with the Patna Saheb seat. There is a belief in Bihar that segments unfavourable to the BJP in Patna Saheb were added to Pataliputra, in effect strengthening the RJD here.
After the creation of Pataliputra, there are around five lakh Yadavs in the constituency.
Yet, in 2009, Lalu Prasad Yadav lost to Ranjan Prasad while Misa was defeated by Ram Kripal Yadav in 2014. Apart from the Yadavs, there are an estimated three lakh upper caste Bhumihar and two lakh OBC Kurmi voters in Pataliputra who are perceived to be hostile to Lalu and the RJD.
Such is the battle this time around that Misa has been evoking her father’s name during campaigning. On the day she filed her nomination papers, she carried a photo of Lalu Prasad with her.
“No speech is complete without him as he is the biggest mass leader Bihar has ever had,” she said, dubbing her chacha Ram Kripal Yadav as a political opportunist.
Former CM Rabri Devi has also had to step out to campaign in Maner. She has been alleging that the Centre is out to finish off Lalu.
Ram Kripal Yadav, on the other hand, is confident of winning again.
“The RJD is not about Yadavs. The RJD is about a family. In 2014, I was denied a ticket as Misa happens to be the daughter of Lalu,” he told ThePrint. “More and more, Yadavs are realising that the RJD promotes just a family and will be finished one day. This battle is between a person who lives in a palace and a person who lives in a hut.”
Pataliputra votes in the final phase on 19 May.
BJP’s out to woo the Yadavs
Over the last five years, the BJP has made efforts to make a dent in the Yadav vote.
During his speech at the Hunkar Rally in 2013, his first in Bihar, the then prime ministerial aspirant Narendra Modi declared that he had a natural claim over the Yadav vote as he hailed from the land of Dwaraka, the home of Lord Krishna.
It is perceived that a chunk of Yadav votes, particularly those of the younger generation, went to the BJP in 2014.
In 2015, however, the community reverted back to the Nitish-Lalu combine.
In these elections, the BJP has an impressive list of Yadav leaders — Nand Kishore Yadav, Nityanand Rai, Ram Kripal Yadav and Hukumdeo Narayan Yadav to name a few.
But they only have pockets of influence and are still dwarfed by Lalu Prasad.
NDA leaders are, however, claiming that there has been a breach in the Yadav votes in the 19 Lok Sabha constituencies that have already voted. “The break is more substantial than in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls,” claimed deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi.
The RJD disputes the claims. It says that Lalu being in judicial custody in Ranchi has helped it to once again consolidate Yadav votes. “The NDA is daydreaming about Yadav votes,” said the Maner RJD MLA Bhai Birendra.
Also read: Being Tej Pratap — Lalu’s problem child, RJD rebel and Tejashwi’s family baggage
Lalu yadav started his political career as backward forward BHURA BAL and in 1994 nitish kumar taken up kurmi politics and Once upon time lalu known among poors but on root he only earns for his family and finally lost his vote bank however result awaited which clarified his vote bank
Lalu calls himself the Messiah of the downtroddens of Bihar. And look what this so called Messiah ha done. He has indulged in corruption at a very large level and amassed wealth, grabbed land and buildings for his fit for nothing children. As a restult of this he is rotting in the jail.
If he really had concern for poor people why he did not share this loot with the poor. He is a congenital liar whose only interest is to settle his useless progeny.
Jaise aalu bina samosa bekar hi same usi trah lalu prassad yada bina politics bekar hi. Log khate hi garibo ke masiha koi hi ti oo lalu yadav hi
Caste politics have been the primary reason for the underdevelopment of Bihar, and the biggest factor in it has been laloo Prasad yadav and his family.