Does ABVP’s Delhi University sweep augur well for BJP in 2019? Precedent says yes

ABVP leaders after the election victory | Manisha Mondal/ThePrint.in

The RSS student wing has won three of DUSU’s four central panel posts, up from last year’s two.

New Delhi: The Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) won three of four posts of the Delhi University Student Union (DUSU) central panel in Thursday’s election, leading many to suggest that it was a big boost for ideological sibling BJP ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

But why, some might ask, is a university poll being projected as a barometer for a national election? The answer lies in precedent.

The DUSU election is different from that of any other Indian university because the voters, estimated to be close to 50,000, are students from all over the country — from the Northeast and Bihar, to Kashmir and south India.

The winners of the DUSU elections celebrate their victory at the Vivekanand Swami statue on the Art Faculty North Campus in Delhi | Manisha Mondal/ ThePrint.in

The National Students’ Union of India (NSUI), the Congress’ student wing, and the ABVP have been the main players of the DUSU election. Results of the election in the year preceding the Lok Sabha polls have traditionally reflected the outcome of the latter, and proved to be an accurate measure of the youth’s opinion.

Which way the wind blows

In 2003, the year before the Congress came to power at the head of UPA-I, the NSUI won all four seats of the DUSU central panel.

An analysis of the last 15 student union elections shows that the NSUI dominated the election from 2003 to 2007, winning three or all four seats each year. This stint coincided with the first four years of the Congress-led UPA administration.

Between 2008 and 2012, the NSUI and the ABVP alternately came to power. But in 2013, the year preceding the BJP’s landslide in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the ABVP won three of the four central panel posts.

From 2014 onwards, the ABVP’s position has been as strong in DU as the BJP’s has been in the country.

In 2014 and 2015, the ABVP won all four posts; in 2016, one seat went to the NSUI, but the ABVP retained the president’s post. The NSUI seemed to be making a comeback in 2017, winning two seats in the central panel, but it is back to one seat this year.

‘A positive mandate’

“Student politics has always left its mark on the mainstream national politics,” said Shriniwas, the national joint organising secretary of the ABVP.

“In the coming days, we will see how results of Delhi University’s student elections impact the larger politics in the country and the society at large,” he added.

Rohit Chahal, the national media in-charge for the Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha, the BJP youth wing, added, “The ABVP’s win certainly means that students are thinking of larger issues, and want to see the party that has shown results in the country work with them in the university as well.”

“It is a positive mandate and it certainly sets the mood for the upcoming general elections,” he added.

The NSUI, however, had a different opinion, with members saying university elections were won more on the basis of the issues that affect students and how each party campaigns.

“Sometimes, it’s also about the popularity of a student that makes him or her win a student election,” said Fairoz Khan, NSUI national president.

“But it’s mostly to do with how they connect with the students,” he added.

Khan also sought to point out that one shouldn’t set much store by Thursday’s outcome, alleging that the election was not conducted in a fair manner as the data for seven EVMs was missing.

In an unprecedented turn of events, the DUSU election vote-count was marred by reports that as many as six of the estimated 700 EVMs deployed malfunctioned. The row got murkier as the Election Commission claimed later that the EVMs were not provided by the poll panel.