New Delhi: With less than a month to go before the seven-phase Lok Sabha polls, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is yet to come out with even its first list of candidates, with factors such as defectors, allies, downsizing and winnability weighing it down and thus delaying the decision.
The party was expected to declare its first list Saturday, but despite hectic and prolonged parleys held by its top leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it failed to arrive at a decision. The BJP had won 282 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha in 2014.
According to highly placed sources in the party, besides the winnability criteria of candidates, what is making the distribution of tickets particularly difficult are factors the BJP did not have to grapple with as much in 2014 — a string of rebels, some powerful, from rival parties and more space to allies — all of which requires careful, calibrated downsizing of the party’s own aspirants.
Sources in the party, however, claim the rule of not giving tickets to those above 75 years is no longer going to be adhered to.
The rebel factor
The BJP, particularly in the last few weeks, has inducted a hoard of defectors from rivals, especially the Congress. From Gujarat to Maharashtra, West Bengal, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and other states, this has been part of a thought-out strategy by BJP to beat the opposition in mind games.
However, with the defectors bringing in their set of expectations, the burden of accommodating them is now on the BJP, thus reducing the kitty of tickets for its own aspirants.
“The party brought in rebels as part of a planned electoral strategy as we believe they add to our strengths, particularly where we had gaps. But this also means we need to give them tickets,” said a highly placed source in the party. “This is easier said than done since the party leadership has to ensure this is done without upsetting our own people.”
For instance, in Maharashtra, the BJP inducted Congress leader Sujay Vikhe Patil, son of the Leader of Opposition, who had quit his party because he wasn’t getting a ticket from the Ahmednagar seat. BJP already has a sitting MP — Dilip Gandhi — from the seat but does not believe he is strong and hence, brought in Patil. The dilemma for the party, sources say, is to not antagonise its own leader.
“You can’t just deny tickets to people who won the last time. You have to think about it carefully, pacify them or accommodate them somewhere to prevent them from turning rebel,” the source added. “All this is leading to delays.”
Also read: Former BJP leaders running UTs, once an IAS preserve, exempt from model code
The allies
With its position turning relatively vulnerable owing to incumbency, desertion by allies such as the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and issues like rural distress and lack of job creation, the BJP top leadership went out of its way to fit in difficult allies, agreeing to concede more than expected. Giving away more seats to allies, therefore, has meant less space for itself.
In Bihar, for example, the party is contesting in only 17 seats — having handed over seats to allies such as the Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party — even though it won 22 in the state in 2014. In Maharashtra, the BJP and Shiv Sena have agreed on a 25:23 formula, as against the 26:22 in 2014.
“The BJP has the extra baggage of managing allies this time. We have conceded more seats in some cases but even in others where seat-sharing formula may not have changed, we will have to accommodate our allies and can’t bulldoze our way through,” said another party leader also on condition of anonymity.
“Our ticket aspirants in these seats will then have to be managed. Deciding and fixing all this takes time. The list is, therefore, taking longer than usual.”
Also read: BJP likely to drop Shatrughan Sinha from Patna Sahib & field Ravi Shankar Prasad instead
Downsizing on winnability
Sources say the party is being “extra cautious because it can’t afford to make any mistakes”. Thus, the winnability of candidates, including incumbents, is being studied in detail before arriving at a decision.
“With every cut in its number of seats, the BJP bleeds a lot given we maxed out in several states in 2014 and may not necessarily be able to repeat those numbers,” said the first source. “The top leadership has to be extra cautious. We can’t afford to make mistakes.”
The party also plans to change a chunk of its candidates in key states like Uttar Pradesh — where it won 71 of the 80 seats the last time. The performance and popularity of its current MPs have been analysed and the poor performing ones — particularly in UP — will need to be replaced and fresh ones brought in.
“A combination of all these factors is making the process complex and prolonged,” the source added.
If the party secures a second term, it will be at the head of a genuine coalition. That requires a change of mindset. Allies / coalition partners will have to be afforded more autonomy than has been conceded to the seniormost ministers. A difficult transition. The conventional wisdom has been that PM is his own man, will not be able to function without his own majority. Hence some colleagues have started fancying their chances. 2. Somehow, one does not visualise the great man crisscrossing the country in peak summer, as he did five years ago, drumming up say 175 seats and then handing over the crown to someone else, possibly a colleague who has not added ten seats to the party’s tally. Much is made of truculent allies – the Shiv Sena heading the list – who will exercise a veto, as Nitishbabu had tried to do in 2013. If one hundred MPs are required, there will be a long line of carpetbaggers, each with ten to fifteen horsemen, who know the difference between being part of the government and warming the oppobenches for five years. A buyer’s market.
Every quote citing anonymity. Then why not the anonymous as the byline.?
The quotes are authentic. They provide a clearer insight into the party’s thinking than a column that distils the essence of many conversations and is written as an essay.
What is new insight into these quotes? A few months ago, Prashant Jha, a senior journalist in his book on the BJP has already written all this. At least Jha ji could be quoted as his writings have been distilled in this post.