Mumbai: Closer to every major election, there is always one lingering question — which side will Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and its chief Raj Thackeray pick.
In almost every alternate election, Thackeray’s MNS has swung from aggressively campaigning for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or against it, coming up with compelling justifications for its stance each time.
This time, the leader seems to be preparing the ground to align with the BJP. Thackeray Tuesday met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi along with his son and MNS leader Amit Thackeray at a time when the ruling allies in Maharashtra — BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) — have been negotiating seat sharing for the upcoming parliamentary polls.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday morning, MNS leader Sandeep Deshpande said: “Whatever decision Raj saheb takes, it will be one that benefits Maharashtra, Hindutva, the party and the Marathi population.”
Although Raj and Amit Thackeray were tightlipped about the development, the latter shared pictures on his Facebook page saying he was witness to a “great meeting”.
A senior BJP leader who did not wish to be named said the two parties discussed potentially joining hands for the election. “The MNS has demanded two seats. Today’s meeting was preliminary. There will be further discussion on what is possible and what is not,” he said.
The MNS, founded in 2006, tasted quick electoral success in the 2009 assembly elections and the 2012 Mumbai civic poll. However, it has been on a downward spiral since the 2014 Lok Sabha election and has wildly swung from stance to stance, depending on where the window of opportunity for the party lies.
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Raj Thackeray’s wavering stances
In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the MNS contested independently although it strongly supported the candidature of Narendra Modi for prime minister. The party fielded 10 candidates, all of whom lost their deposits.
In the 2014 assembly elections in Maharashtra, Thackeray had chosen to slam all other players in Maharashtra, be it the undivided Shiv Sena, the undivided NCP, the BJP, or the Congress. This was a crowded state election with both the ruling and Opposition alliances of the Congress-NCP and the Shiv Sena-BJP, respectively, having split.
The MNS fielded candidates on 219 of the 288 seats, winning just one. It had to forfeit its deposit in 209 seats.
Then in the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha election, Thackeray was seen to cozy up to Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar and his undivided NCP, wanting to be a part of the Opposition alliance for the poll. The Congress was, however, against the idea considering the MNS had strongly targeted Mumbai’s north Indian migrant population — a key vote bank of the Congress — in its early years.
The MNS ultimately sat out the polls but created a stir by campaigning hard against the Modi government, giving some heft to the Opposition’s otherwise lackluster campaign.
Thackeray addressed a series of rallies across 10 of Maharashtra’s constituencies in his quintessential firebrand style, donning the role of an ‘investigative politician.’ Armed with facts, figures, newspaper clippings, videos, and a bit of old-fashioned research, Thackeray went about exposing the Modi government’s alleged failures. His phrase “Lav re toh video” (play that video) took almost the form of a tagline for the parliamentary elections in Maharashtra, inspiring many memes.
But, while these ‘exposes’ drew large crowds and earned Thackeray accolades from the Opposition camp for speaking up, it made hardly any dent in the electoral prospects of the ruling BJP-Shiv Sena camp.
Then, in the months before the 2019 assembly elections, Thackeray tried to build an anti-BJP consensus nationally by starting a campaign against Electronic Voting Machines. The efforts, though, didn’t go too far, and in the state poll that year the MNS found itself seeking votes from people to help it sit in the Opposition and become a strong voice of dissent. The party, however, got only one seat.
Raj Thackeray in the post-MVA era
After the 2019 Maharashtra assembly election, a lot has changed in Maharashtra’s political landscape, and with that, the MNS, too, has changed its stance from time to time. After the 2019 assembly election, the Shiv Sena, then undivided, joined hands with the Congress and the undivided NCP to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
At the time, Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray was facing flak from the BJP as well as a section of Maharashtra’s population about having allegedly abandoned the Hindutva agenda by tying up with the NCP and the Congress. Sensing an opportunity, the MNS that year changed its flag from blue, white, orange, and green to complete saffron while Hindutva ideologue Vinayak Damodar Savarkar’s portrait found a place on the party’s stage.
Raj Thackeray tried to project himself as Shiv Sena founder Bal Thackeray’s real successor, taking up issues such as banning loudspeakers atop mosques. And with that, the party started visibly moving closer to the BJP.
After the vertical split in the Uddhav Thackeray-led undivided Shiv Sena, talks of the BJP joining hands with Raj Thackeray’s MNS either through an open alliance or through a covert understanding started gaining ground further. Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde led a rebellion with a majority of MLAs, joining hands with the BJP to form the state government with himself as CM.
A string of BJP leaders as well as Chief Minister Eknath Shinde met Raj Thackeray on multiple occasions after the split in the Shiv Sena, all aiming to have one Thackeray in their corner to cut any sympathy votes for their rival, Uddhav Thackeray.
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