New Delhi: The winter of 2018 brought good tidings for the Congress, which was on a high after winning assembly elections in the heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, generating enough momentum to place it on the path to emerging as a formidable opponent for the BJP in the general election scheduled months later.
Addressing a meeting of the Congress parliamentary party on 13 February 2019, Rahul Gandhi, while targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi over alleged irregularities in the Rafale fighter jet deal, asserted, “We are defeating the BJP in the ideological fight. We are defeating the BJP on the daily news cycle and the Congress party is now firmly entrenched in the mood and spirit of the people.”
In less than 24 hours, the Congress — which had pivoted its campaign around economic distress and unemployment, other than the Rafale fighter jet deal — would find itself pushed back to the drawing board, as anguish and a desire to avenge gripped the country after an explosive-laden car rammed into a CRPF convoy, killing 40 jawans in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama.
And as “revenge” came in the form of Indian Air Force airstrikes on a Jaish-e-Mohammed camp at Balakot in Pakistani territory on 26 February, a wave of nationalism swept the country. The Congress tasted one of its worst Lok Sabha poll defeats, settling with 52 seats compared to the BJP’s mammoth tally of 303, its highest ever. The Congress had just managed to better its 2014 tally of 44.
At a press conference Saturday, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar announced that voting for the Lok Sabha elections will be held in seven phases starting 19 April. The results will be announced on 4 June.
As the country heads to another general election, the Opposition finds itself far more electorally enfeebled, particularly with the Congress losing the Hindi heartland states it won in 2018, which denied the party its moment in the sun like last time. A victory in Telangana was its only solace, but that only reinforced the perception of a North-South political divide.
The BJP, which had shown signs of jittering in the run-up to the 2019 general elections till the Balakot strike came as a booster, is entering the ring this time with a spring in its step, having fused nationalism with Hindutva, fulfilling an array of core ideological commitments, from the abrogation of Article 370 to the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, to setting the amended Citizenship Act in motion.
But is it a done deal yet? Political analysts feel it will be an uphill battle for the Opposition due to “fairly high satisfaction” with the government, coupled with the aggressive campaign of the BJP centred around Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But they also do not see much merit in the BJP leadership’s assertions that the ruling alliance will surpass 400 of the total 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.
“The iconic image that the ruling establishment wishes to create around Modi’s personality is aggressive and cannot be challenged by the Opposition’s arguments. The Modi-centric campaign even wishes to surpass the ideals of other great leaders of modern India like Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi on the scale of mass popularity, personal achievements and international stature. Importantly, his persona as the revivalist of Hindu cultural nationalism adds an additional feature in his personality,” said Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) professor Harish Wankhede.
Wankhede, who teaches at the JNU Centre for Political Studies, also underlined how Modi has been projected as the front and centre of the BJP’s campaign in other ways, such as branding its poll promises as the PM’s personal guarantees.
He added: “Such ‘cult-like’ figures promise populist welfare initiatives for the poor or greater economic development, not as the responsible act of the government, but his personal philanthropic gesture or his ‘guarantee’ to the people. Such euphoria and dream-like situations about the PM’s ability to deliver has consistently been newly constructed by the television media, film industry and other sources of communication, eyeing the 2024 campaign.”
While the Opposition’s efforts to stitch up a pan-India alliance to take on the BJP had not materialised last time, there is one in place this time in the form of INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). But what started out as a 28-party grouping has shrunk in recent months, with parties bickering over seat-sharing, or simply walking out and joining the NDA.
So far, the Congress’s alliance talks have been successful with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Samajwadi Party (SP), and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), resulting in seat-sharing pacts in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Chandigarh. The AAP has also managed to get the Congress to part with one seat in Haryana and two in Gujarat, while agreeing to stay out of the fray in Goa. A deal is also likely to work out in Bihar, Jharkhand and Maharashtra.
But the exit of parties such as the Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Lok Dal, which derives its support largely from Jat farmers in western Uttar Pradesh, and the decision of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) to field candidates in all 42 seats in West Bengal have considerably dented the INDIA bloc, at least in public perception for now. Even the National Conference has not yet made up its mind about sharing seats with the Congress in Jammu & Kashmir where it may not even have any truck with the PDP.
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Can BJP face compounded anti-incumbency?
Political researcher Asim Ali said the Opposition has failed to drive up resentment against the BJP in the last one year, unlike opposition coalitions in 1989 and 2004 when focussed campaigns towards the last leg had brought down people’s satisfaction levels with the government.
“But now, there is a high degree of trust in the PM and fairly high satisfaction with the government. The only competitive state where CVoter survey data do not show high satisfaction with BJP/Modi is Maharashtra. What a high degree of satisfaction does is that it also tamps down on seamless vote transfers like what happened in Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka last time. So you need a fairly high anti-incumbency to really accumulate vote transfers advantage,” Ali said.
One similarity that the prevailing political situation has with 2019 is that the BJP has still not been able to expand in south and east India. Even in Karnataka, the party hopes to perform well due to its alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular), not on its sole strength. The difference, on the other hand, is that the BJP, unlike 2019, is the incumbent in most northern states this time.
“So the question [is], can the BJP face compounded anti-incumbency? It harmed the Congress in 1975 and 1989 when it performed worse in states where it was running governments. The BJP’s loss in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh in 2018 had saved it from facing such a situation in 2019. But now they are in power in these states,” Ali said.
In the larger canvas, these may actually be marginal factors, but the BJP hasn’t got many achievements this time on the economic front and welfare, he added. “So while there may be satisfaction with the government, but not much enthusiasm,” said Ali, basing his assertion on a Carnegie India analysis on state capability in India — 2024 vs 2019.
The analysis by researchers Suyash Rai and Anirudh Burman, points out that the improvements that various social sector schemes may have brought to the lives of people have been “incremental” in the last five years, compared to the 2014-19 period.
“Since the performance on measures like GDP per capita has been worse than it was during the previous tenure, the situation might present an opportunity for the Opposition and a challenge for the ruling party,” the researchers say.
They add: “There is also an open question whether the direct benefits given by the government since 2019 add up to a significant improvement from the voter’s perspective. There is room for interpretation and judgment; and therefore, there are possibilities of persuasion…All this will be considered along with the cultural and security issues. Overall, one can argue that the economic conditions are such that the 2024 election would be a toughly fought one.”
(Edited by Gitanjali Das)
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