The Spy Chronicles is a book of conversations between the former intelligence chiefs of India and Pakistan, A.S. Dulat and Asad Durrani, respectively. The discussions centre on several subjects, from Kashmir and PM Narendra Modi, to how Osama bin Laden was given up to the Americans. Here’s an exclusive excerpt from the book:
The reaction in Pakistan to the election of Narendra Modi:
Asad Durrani: The reaction in Pakistan to Modi’s election was that it served India right. Let Modi take care of India, destroy its image, and possibly destroy its inner balance.
I’ve not been impressed by his antics. What did he mean crash- landing after giving Pakistan an earful in Afghanistan? He comes to Raiwind to attend Nawaz Sharif’s granddaughter’s wedding (in December 2015), and his drama and tamasha merely created spectacular confusion. People were shell-shocked and just stood there.
I prefer someone like (former PM) Vajpayee who did not deliver but his approach was right. A person who manages the relationship well will not keep you on tenterhooks. Not that there is any intention to equate Vajpayee with Modi. World of difference. We would be happy if someone like Vajpayee was prime minister in Pakistan. Poet, philosopher, he could have been a good prime minister for us.
A S Dulat: Does Pakistan prefer DrManmohan Singh or NarendraModi? …I believe Pakistan is happy if Kashmir is in a mess. A lot of people think Modi is the greatest thing to happen to India. I’ve earlier said that Vajpayee was an exceptional prime minister, and he led an exceptional government. But Modi doesn’t have much of a cabinet. There’s Modi, and the next guy is a mile away. The only one Modi holds close is Doval.
Even his home minister, a decent person who is keen to do something in Kashmir, is quite helpless.
Durrani: Rajnath?
Dulat: Rajnath. Vajpayee, who was head and shoulders above Modi, still had to deal with Advani. Modi is on his own trip. He doesn’t even bother about the RSS at times…
Durrani: Modi is a showman. He likes theatrics. He likes to keep people guessing….But he has no intention of doing good for the region; his only thought is of creating an impact back home. He’s smart.
With MianSaheb (Nawaz Sharif) it is not the chemistry that works because MianSaheb does not work chemically. He works at best instinctively or probably driven by business and financial consideration. He understands how to survive politically at home, but on international relations he has the acumen of a camel.
Durrani: (Modi is)..a fox. Modi is smart. Absolutely. So is Doval. How do we think about Doval and (Pakistan’s National Security Advisor) Janjua? Doval was a good intelligence operator, a good thinker; a cunning mind, but that’s not the point. Janjua? Run of the mill soldier. I don’t think he’s learnt more about relations with India after commanding corps and divisions and the Southern Command. I have met him just a couple of times and my conclusion is, no; he could not get the better of Doval.
The dynamic between national security advisors Ajit Doval and Nasser Janjua
Dulat: Pakistan has not paid sufficient attention to Ajit Doval. When everything else closes there is a great window of opportunity and that is Ajit Doval. He would grab an opportunity if it shows him coming in better, bigger light.
Durrani: Well, I don’t feel comfortable thinking Doval is the person. If it was up to me, I would not even talk about him. However, he matters nowadays, as Modi matters. I agree he is smart and would not miss an opportunity for another spectacle. Win Modi or himself brownie points. But I’m not counting on him to turn around the relationship and make it stable.
Dulat: I think that’s one of the problems in the relationship right now…but I think, in the Pakistan mind, where it matters, Doval remains a problem unfortunately…You said you wouldn’t even bother to think about him, somebody could say the same about Henry Kissinger. Also, he’s not necessarily a hardliner.
Durrani: Who?
Dulat: AjitDoval. He toes Modi’s line. He also toed Mani Dixit’s line. He at one point-toed [M.K.] Narayanan’s line … I’ll tell you something. He is convinced that Modi is the greatest thing that has happened to India. That I can vouch for.
Durrani: So in future we have to work on Doval and not Modi?
Dulat: Doval would enjoy this. That’s why I keep saying get him to Lahore. He loves Pakistan!
The value of Hafeez Saeed for Pakistan
Durrani: What can Pakistan do about Hafiz Saeed?
Dulat: That’s another matter.
Durrani: How is it another matter?
Dulat: I agree it’s for the courts to decide. But my question is: What is Hafiz Saeed’s value?
Durrani: If you prosecute Hafiz Saeed the first reaction will be: it’s on India’s behalf, you’re hounding him, he’s innocent, etc. The political cost is big, now.
Dulat: Apart from his involvement, he has nuisance value because he keeps abusing India. But what is his value to Pakistan?
Durrani: The cost of prosecuting him is too great.
How Osama bin Laden was found
Durrani: Under the cover of a polio programme (Dr Afridi) found where Osama bin Laden was.
Dulat: So he was working for the Americans. It seems to me that the Americans found Osama via the doctor, and told (then Pakistan army chief Ashfaq) Kayani that now we know. Are you willing to cooperate or should we do it on our own?
Durrani: Yes, they said play ball. Kayani says, we will do it in this manner, and what do we get in return. They found out not only because of Dr Afridi. I have no doubt that a retired Pakistani officer who was in intelligence walked in and told the Americans. I won’t take his name because I can’t prove it and also I don’t want to give him any publicity.
Question: On Mufti Mohammed Sayeed
Dulat:He invited me to his oath-taking on March 1. It was still cold. BJP bigwigs were on stage, hugging. The moment the prime minister left, his entourage left: Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi, Amit Shah, the RSS guy Ram Madhav, the whole lot. Mufti Saheb made the mistake of calling the press and thanking the separatists and Pakistan.
Immediately in Delhi people said, Arreyaaryehkiskobanadiya chief minister? Yehtoh Pakistani hai…I felt sorry for Mufti Saheb. As J&K chief minister he had to say something. What good is calling him a Pakistani? He’s been Indian all his life, he was in the Congress for many years. After that Mufti got nothing.
Mufti underestimated Modi, overestimated himself, and found himself in a fix. But having long been a politician with thick skin, he managed things. Most disappointing, though, was that nothing came as relief for the September 2014 floods, in which people died, property was destroyed. The Kashmiri thought the PDP-BJP alliance would bring something, but nothing happened.
This drift continued. Mufti Saheb died a broken man. That’s why Mehbooba took three months to take oath of office. And Mufti Saheb’s funeral in Bijbehara saw just 3,000-3,500 people.
Asad Durrani: Thank you for saying this. We are counting on the mistakes you people make.
Pakistan’s reaction to the events of 2016 in Kashmir
Durrani: There was consensus in Pakistan that in the post-BurhanWani developments it should neither interfere nor be seen to be involved. Some schadenfreude (feeling pleased with the adversary’s plight) was understandable, but after Uri and the so-called surgical strike, we realized that sitting back and doing nothing was not an option. We would inevitably get involved……
One is realistic to know what is at stake for both countries. This issue of conflict…We’re always saying resolve the issue, find a final solution, for us it’s a core issue, etc. But it can be turned around. It is best resolved by making Kashmir the focus of the two countries’ cooperation. ‘From Conflict to Cooperation’ might be a reasonable slogan.
Dulat: Absolutely, absolutely.
Durrani: So this is our recipe: Don’t look at independence, don’t look at Article 370, and don’t look at the LoC.…We don’t have to reinvent it. People before us, wiser people, have found a way by starting at the people’s level. Simple movement, a little trade, let them be involved in these matters while Delhi and Islamabad take a backseat….
Dulat: The story is that before Sheikh Abdullah went ahead with the Afzal Beg accord in 1975, he sent Dr Farooq Abdullah to Pakistan. Dr Farooq went and met Z.A. Bhutto, who is supposed to have told him: ‘At this point we can do nothing to help you. So, take what you can get. If you’re offered peace and power in Kashmir, take it.’
There was also a story in Kashmir that Yasin Malik was advised by the Americans to do business with Delhi. When Yasin said that Delhi was unreasonable, they said: ‘You should take what you can get.’ They said it was not the final arrangement, but if something is on offer, grab it.
Durrani: Bhutto’s advice was so good. I don’t know how these things keep getting missed; do we want all or nothing? Is it just take it or leave it? When we want all or nothing, we are likely to get nothing. But also, whoever asked you to take it or leave it was also likely testing your nerve. So, as Bhutto said: ‘Take what you can get.’
Spymasters and strong prime ministers
Dulat: It is tougher, but it’s also better. The tasking would be much tougher. The agencies like to create their own tasking. We feel we know it better than anybody else. When the tasking starts coming from the top, how it has to happen and which way we are heading, then it becomes that much more difficult.
…With a prime minister as powerful and strong as Modi, the job of the intelligence agencies must be that much tougher. It might be getting simpler but it would not be easy.
There have been, incidentally, prime ministers in India who had no interest in intelligence. I don’t think Morarji Desai (1977-79) considered intelligence an asset. P.V. Narasimha Rao (1991-96) was too intelligent and thought it was fraud and chuglibaazi. Even I.K. Gujral (1997-98) was sceptical about intelligence. Prime ministers like Rajiv Gandhi (1984-89) found it fascinating, maybe because he was young. He was absolutely fascinated, and relied so much on the agencies. The story is that the DIB would have coffee and chocolate with him at 10:30 every night.
The prime minister that I served with, A.B. Vajpayee (1998- 2004), he liked to listen, he liked to be briefed. He didn’t react, but he made you feel important and that what you’re telling him he wants to know. He didn’t rubbish it. For a person who spoke little and was so really himself, he gave you a patient hearing.
‘The Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace by A.S. Dulat, Aditya Sinha, Asad Durrani’ has been published by Harper Collins. Excerpted with permission from the publisher.
Read the review of Spy Chronicles here.