There will be only 33 mourners when, not if, the Karnataka government falls — Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and his 32 ministerial colleagues. Everyone else in the state would heave a sigh of relief. They are sick of the government that never seemed to be in the saddle. All that Kumaraswamy has done in these 13 months is ensure his survival and promote the Gowda clan.
But Kumaraswamy has reasons to blame the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which never had any compunction about its relentless attempts to topple the Congress-JD(S) government, whatever it may take — saam, daam, dand, or bhed. As it is, politics is about power and public morality is for losers. You couldn’t have forgotten those gems from villain Eric Qualen in 1993 blockbuster, Cliffhanger: “Kill a few people, they call you a murderer. Kill a million and you are a conqueror.” Such is the response every time the BJP destabilises an opposition-ruled government.
The Congress has been whining about the BJP’s predatory politics without showing the character or spine to counter it. It’s been going on for so long that people have stopped sympathising with a loser. If there were some saner voices in the Congress, they would be celebrating the likely ouster of Kumaraswamy government, which looked inevitable ever since its formation in May 2018. Not because the chief minister has been crying in public and laying the blame at the Congress’ door for his non-performance.
They should celebrate because the downfall in Karnataka offers the Congress an opportunity to revive itself here and in many other states.
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Let’s start with Karnataka. There is nothing for the Congress in this government, except disrepute and discredit for propping up a hugely unpopular regime and a few crumbs in the form of ministerial portfolios to keep some partymen happy. The Congress is only losing on the ground due to its association with the JD(S). A friend’s parents in Mysore, traditional Congress voters, opted for the BJP candidate in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Their reason: “Look at the blatant family-oriented politics of the Gowdas (HD Deve Gowda and his family)! Enough of dynasty politics.” A Congressman was contesting from Mysore and losing traditional party supporters due to dynasty politics in the JD(S)!
BJP candidate Pratap Simha defeated the Congress-JDS alliance candidate by over 1.38 lakh votes in Mysore, the Vokkaliga stronghold. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Simha’s victory margin over the Congress candidate was a little over 31,000 votes when the Congress and the JD(S) had contested separately. The combined voteshare of the Congress and the JD(S) candidates in 2014 was 1.07 lakh more than Simha’s.
Come to think of it, if there were no JD(S), the Congress would have no rival for the votebanks of Vokkaligas, Muslims and some other communities in southern Karnataka where the BJP is gradually expanding its footprints. A weakened JD(S) is always an advantage to the Congress. That’s the reason why saner voices in the Congress should celebrate the inevitable fall of the Kumaraswamy government. The national party may lose a few ministerial seats and fail, for now, in its ill-advised and ill-conceived crusade to stop the BJP from coming to power at any cost, but getting rid of a regional rival should serve its cause better in the long run.
In fact, this should be the template for the new Congress president in many other states, notably Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Telangana, Haryana and Delhi, among others.
One can’t miss the irony of the Congress desperately clinging on for survival to Lalu Yadav clan in Bihar and Mulayam Singh Yadav clan in Uttar Pradesh — those who were instrumental in its decimation in the Hindi heartland three decades ago. The only hope for revival the Congress has in these states is in the death of the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar and the Samajwadi Party — and also the Bahujan Samaj Party — in UP. Similarly, if it can, it should help in the destruction of the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh because Jagan Mohan Reddy is there to stay for a while.
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It may sound a wee bit ambitious but for the Congress to have any hope of revival in West Bengal, it should first hope for the end of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress – which only the BJP is in a position to achieve – and then strive to occupy the opposition’s space. That is premised on the fact that the Left Front is too battered and scattered to regroup again. It’s not a five-year project. It’s a long and arduous process. But it is probably the only option the Congress has in states with multiple political stakeholders even as it grapples with the BJP in states with bipolar polity and at the national level.
In states where the BJP is threatening to dislodge regional parties, it’s foolhardy to join forces with the latter. These regional parties have occupied what was essentially the Congress’ political and ideological space. Since the Congress is too weak to fight with them and regain this space, a better option for the Congress is to let the BJP accomplish the mission of destroying regional parties. The Congress should, in the mean time, work to occupy the principal opposition space. Once these third parties are out of the scene or are relatively irrelevant, the Congress would be better placed for one-on-one battles with the BJP, in state after state and nationally.