The Congress and the JD(S) activists, rivals on the ground, are yet to reconcile to the new political reality. The BJP might benefit by admitting disgruntled defectors from both the parties.
As H.D. Kumaraswamy prepares to take oath on Wednesday evening in Bengaluru, doubts continue to persist about the stability and long term viability of the JD(S)-Congress alliance in Karnataka.
Aware of such questions, Kumarawamy and his family too haven’t simply relied on human allies. His father and former prime minister, H.D. Deve Gowda, visited the Tirupati temple last Friday, which also happened to be his 86th birthday. In between his political meetings and Delhi visit, Kumaraswamy himself has crisscrossed temples in south India, offering worship at Srirangam in Tamil Nadu, Dharmasthala, Sringeri and Chamundi Hills in Karnataka. Special pujas and havans have been performed, seeking divine blessings on Kumaraswamy.
Deve Gowda family is known for such public display of religiosity. It is also known for driving a hard bargain with political allies. So, negotiations continue to finalise a power-sharing arrangement and to arrive at a common minimum program.
Even as Kumaraswamy spearheads discussions with the Congress leaders, H.D. Deve Gowda is using this unexpected opportunity to resurrect his favourite project i.e., reviving the Third Front by bringing together the Left parties and regional parties like the TMC, the TDP, the TRS, and the BSP among others. Leaders of these parties are expected to informally discuss creating an anti-BJP front when they attend Kumaraswamy’s oath-taking ceremony.
Meanwhile, most of the JD(S) and Congress MLAs continue to be holed up in Bengaluru hotels, semi-sequestered, until Kumaraswamy seeks trust vote, which is likely to take place on Thursday. Fears of the BJP poaching them haven’t disappeared. Yesterday, Amit Shah openly claimed that the JD(S) and the Congress alliance would collapse if MLAs are freed. While his suggestion that the MLAs from both these parties are uncomfortable with this alliance and that their support has come only under duress may have some merit, Shah ignores the fact that the BJP’s efforts to secure power is violative of anti-defection law unless either the JD(S) or the Congress back a BJP administration.
In the past few days, several stories about the BJP’s negotiations with the Congress MLAs have surfaced. It is said that the two missing MLAs, Anand Singh and Pratap Gouda Patil, were in Delhi along with Somashekara Reddy of the well-known Reddy clan. While it is not clear if Singh and Gauda were prepared to support the the BJP, the Congress MLAs were not prepared to cross over in large enough numbers. So, the BJP appears to have suspended its efforts at least for now but continues to wait for an opportune moment.
Given the challenges Kumaraswamy faces in forming a cabinet and then running the government for the foreseeable future, the BJP will get opportunities to have another go at the alliance. As per the current arrangement, the JD(S) gets 14 ministerial berths, including Kumaraswamy’s, and the Congress will get 22 ministerial berths, including a deputy chief minister in the form of G. Parameshwara, the present KPCC chief.
Bulk of the JD(S) cadre is from the Vokkaliga community and from southern Karnataka. Many of them are senior MLAs, having been elected for third or fourth terms, and are contenders for ministerial berths. Accommodating them will lead to severe regional and caste imbalance. Although Congress has won from all parts, this alliance has few representatives from Coastal and Bombay-Karnataka regions. So, Kumaraswamy has a tough task ahead of him because balancing regional and caste interests will be difficult. Within the Congress too, there are already demands for a Lingayat deputy chief minister, and given the political reality of north Karnataka, it will be difficult to ignore it.
Additionally, the JD(S) is keen on several important ministries like finance, irrigation, public works, revenue, and rural development, all of which are lucrative and play a key role in the rural as well as the farming sector. Since this is the core constituency for the JD(S), Kumaraswamy can ignore that only at his peril.
As the BJP waits in the wings, both the JD(S) and the Congress have been making the right noises. Two important sentiments have been expressed earlier this week. After meeting Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in Delhi, Kumaraswamy said this alliance is not a short-term arrangement of convenience but a long-term political relationship. Echoing this sentiment, state Congress chief and deputy chief minister-designate, G. Parameshwara, referred to Maharashtra’s NCP-Congress formula as the model for the JD(S) and the Congress, both politically and for power-sharing. He was specifically speaking about sharing of ministries. However, that was an interesting analogy and provides an insight into how the Congress as well as the JD(S) might be visualising their relationship. Neither party surely wants to lose the political base it already has.
Whether the Congress and the JD(S) activists, rivals in their villages and talukas of southern Karnataka, have reconciled to this new reality is another question. It will take time and the BJP might benefit by admitting disgruntled defectors from both the parties.
Prithvi Datta Chandra Shobhi is a Mysore-based social historian and political commentator.