Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s few surprises at the start of his second innings were quite predictable.
He dropped veteran cabinet colleagues and inducted more former diplomats and bureaucrats, appointed a first-ever BJP working president, and made a two-term MP the Lok Sabha Speaker.
But these moves were along the expected lines. People were actually waiting for Modi to do what they least expected from him. They had learnt their lessons in his first stint.
To predict anything about his second stint is, therefore, a professional hazard. But if one reads between the lines of the Prime Minister’s and home minister Amit Shah’s speeches in Parliament last week, at least three deductions can be made about the broad contours of politics and governance in the next five years.
Also read: When Jai Shri Ram became a political tool to heckle Muslim MPs, it lost something
First, the politics of Hindutva is going to get a fresh impetus. Heckling of newly elected MPs, such as Asaduddin Owaisi, with “Jai Shri Ram” calls by the BJP MPs in the Lok Sabha was just the beginning.
There were numerous instances in the first 10 working days of the 17th Lok Sabha, which showed how the ruling party has interpreted its renewed mandate as a thumbs-up for its aggressive Hindutva politics.
The Modi government introduced the triple talaq bill in the House – the first legislation to be tabled in the Lok Sabha – ignoring the parliamentary convention of first taking up the Motion of Thanks on the President’s Address.
And, when the discussion on the Motion of Thanks started in the Lok Sabha, the ruling BJP chose first-term MP and minister Pratap Sarangi to initiate it.
The union minister from Odisha was the Bajrang Dal coordinator in the state when Dara Singh, an activist of his outfit, led a mob to kill Christian missionary Graham Staines and his sons. The NDA government made a strong political statement by fielding him to initiate the debate.
The Prime Minister spoke about the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in his reply to the debate on the Motion of Thanks in the Rajya Sabha. He said he was saddened by the lynching incident in poll-bound Jharkhand, but immediately scored a political point by telling the critics that calling Jharkhand a hub of lynching is an insult to the state.
Mamata Banerjee is already feeling jittery. And so are the many so-called, self-proclaimed secular parties. Brace for a further push to Hindutva politics in the days to come.
Also read: Cycle-riding Pratap Sarangi is ‘Odisha’s Modi’ who took New Delhi by storm
Second, expect a more muscular Kashmir policy under home minister Amit Shah. Those who are privy to his assessment of the problem say that he believes in an iron-fisted approach. He believes, they say, that in a country with over 700 districts, a problem spread over “three-and-a-half-districts” in a state (probably implying Shopian, Pulwama, Kulgam and Anantnag) has been made into a national crisis due to the “weak-kneed” policies of successive governments at the Centre.
So, while the NDA government will try to create better opportunities for Kashmiri youth inside and outside the state and also bring development and welfare projects on the ground to woo the people, “tukde-tukde gangs”, as Shah calls them, will not be tolerated “either in Kashmir or outside”.
That’s why Hurriyat leaders may be willing to engage in talks with the Modi government, but they must forget about setting any terms. The BJP in its manifesto has promised to scrap Article 370 and Article 35A. In his maiden speech in the Lok Sabha, the home minister has given a glimpse of his intent, asserting that Article 370 is “temporary”.
Talk to the BJP leaders and they are convinced that the BJP president and home minister would be able to deliver on this long-held promise of the party in this term of the Modi government. Although the NDA, with the support of like-minded parties, is well-placed to get the Lok Sabha’s approval for a constitutional amendment, the numbers in the Rajya Sabha are still not favourable for the passage of such a contentious amendment.
The NDA is likely to gain a simple majority in the Upper House in 2021, but it would require the support of many other parties to get a constitutional amendment passed with a majority of not less than two-thirds of the members present and voting. But, given how the Congress manages to get itself cornered and tongue-tied on the issue of nationalism — or the ruling party’s version of it — the BJP may have reasons to hope that most opposition parties would develop cold feet on voting against scrapping Article 370.
Also read: Modi govt shows shift in Kashmir policy but a lot depends on Hurriyat, and Amit Shah
Third, the opposition camp is dead and the BJP is relishing it. The ruling party’s penchant for Congress-bashing even in its second stint in power was evident from Modi’s speeches in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha last week. He kept blaming the Congress for every problem the country is faced with today. As if, there was a vacuum in the last five years.
When it was Shah’s turn to speak on Kashmir, he blamed India’s first prime minister for everything. But for Jawaharlal Nehru’s decision on “ceasefire” in Kashmir, there would be no PoK, no Article 370 and no terrorism today, suggested the home minister. Look at how Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel handled the merger of Hyderabad and Junagarh and how Nehru dealt with the accession of Jammu and Kashmir, he said.
Shah almost projected Nehru’s prime ministership as the biggest blunder of Independent India and the opposition benches listened with their heads bowed. The will to fight was over.
In fact, every time a minister has faced awkward moments in this session of Parliament, it’s thanks to his/her BJP colleagues, and not because of the opposition benches. Former union ministers Maneka Gandhi and Rajiv Pratap Rudy, for instance, gave a tough time to ministers Prakash Javadekar and Ravi Shankar Prasad during the Question Hour in the Lok Sabha.
Also read: Guess who can teach Narendra Modi to innovate in his speeches? DD Sports
Well into the fifth week of its second term in power, the BJP’s politics is clear but there is ambiguity over the NDA government’s policies, except for some broad hints by the Prime Minister at a NITI Aayog meeting about pursuing a reforms agenda. If the economy finally gets a priority in Modi’s scheme of things, we will get a glimpse of it in the union budget Friday.