The state of Uttar Pradesh used to return the highest number of Muslim legislators to the state’s assembly and to Parliament. But now the Muslim presence in the Lok Sabha from the state is just one MP, and that too through the by-election in the Kairana seat in 2018.
In this dismal scene, one thing that appears to be working for Muslim candidates and their winnability is a word that has become dirty in today’s political vocabulary: dynasty.
Dynast Muslim candidates
Dynasty politics is often criticised because it acts as an obstacle for many electoral candidates who do not have family connections. The criticism is not unwarranted as about one-third of our parliamentarians in the 2014 Lok Sabha came from political dynasties.
But what if this obstacle, a negative outcome of our electoral democracy, presents itself as a positive feature, in the case of Muslim politicians?
In the Lok Sabha elections of 2004, 2009 and 2014 –– the percentage of Muslim candidates (of the major political parties in the state: BJP, INC, SP, BSP and RLD) from UP were only 14 per cent, 11 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. Except in the 2014 Lok Sabha when no Muslim got elected from UP, the elected Muslims’ share was very near to their candidacy –– 14 per cent in 2004 and 9 per cent in 2009 respectively.
Even this dismal outcome would not be possible if the Muslim politicians did not have family connections –– 48 per cent of the Muslim candidates nominated by UP’s main political parties in 2004 had dynasty connections; 53 per cent in 2009, and 50 per cent in 2014.
However, these statistics look promising in comparison to the dismal percentage of returning Muslims to Parliament (see graph) from UP: from the highest in 1951 (when seven out of 15 Muslims were re-elected) to the lowest in 2014, when no Muslim could get a seat in Parliament (although 32 were given tickets by national parties) from UP. Muslims comprise 19 per cent of the population in Uttar Pradesh (2011 census).
One thing evident from the above graph is that even if a Muslim person gets the ticket, they rarely win the elections.
Also read: Muslim MPs, MLAs don’t always work for Muslims. See Akhilesh govt response to Muzaffarnagar
Competitive performance
The silver lining is that a dynast Muslim candidate is more competitive in the electoral race for the Lok Sabha (meaning they stood first or were runner-up).
In 2004 Lok Sabha, 58 per cent of Muslim candidates with dynasty connections performed competitively; in 2009, 47 per cent did so; and in 2014, 43 per cent.
Most of these dynast Muslim candidates, in all the three Lok Sabha elections, stood from constituencies where Muslim population exceeds 20 per cent, more than the national Muslim population. This makes sense because the dynastic advantage requires stable electoral support of a large share of Muslim voters over many years, which seats like Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor and Meerut have.
One anecdote from my fieldwork in UP last month might aptly describe the dynasty advantages. The young SP Suar MLA, Abdullah Azam Khan, while campaigning for his father Mohammad Azam Khan in Rampur, told people that while his father wanted him to be an adhikari (civil servant), he chose not to, because he overheard his father reprimanding an officer. “Usi din taye kiya ki Azam Khan banna hai! (That day I decided that I only want to be Azam Khan)”, he said while the air filled with cheers of “Abdullah Azam, zindabad!”
Also read: Owaisi has merely let the open secret out: ‘secular’ parties had ditched Muslims long ago
The 2019 race in UP
Among the 18 Muslim candidates contesting the Lok Sabha elections this time from Uttar Pradesh, nine come from political dynasties. The Congress nominated eight Muslim candidates, half of whom are dynasts. For instance –– Badaun’s Lok Sabha candidate Saleem Iqbal Sherwani’s father was a Rajya Sabha member from UP; Sitapur’s candidate, Kaiser Jahan, is wife of local MLA Mohd Jasmir Ansari.
Among Samajwadi Party’s four Muslim candidates, one is a dynast –– Tabassum Hasan from Kairana is the wife of deceased MP Chaudhary Munawwar Hasan and won the Kairana by-election in 2018 on an RLD ticket.
Among the BSP’s six Muslim candidates, four are dynasts –– Kunwar Danish Ali, the candidate from Amroha, is the grandnephew of Kunwar Mahmood Ali, who was a Congress party MLA from Dasna, Meerut in 1957, and Janata Party candidate from Hapur-Ghaziabad in 1977. He was also the governor of Madhya Pradesh between 1992 and 1993. Arshad Ahmed Siddiqui, a candidate from Dhaurahra, is the son of two-time MP Iliyas Azmi.
In these times of religious polarisation in elections, the dynasty connection is serving as an advantage for Muslim representation in Parliament. Without these connections, the statistics would have been even more dismal. We have to wait and watch how much these familial connections help in overcoming the zero per cent representation of Muslims in Parliament from UP in 2019.
The author is a PhD student of Political Science, Jamia Millia Islamia. He tweets @mohdosama89. Views are personal.