Where is Vasundhara Raje now? The elusive former chief minister of Rajasthan was recently spotted at a condolence meet after the death of M.L. Saini, the state BJP president, last week. In the last few months, she has been rarely seen in public functions or even at the BJP office in Jaipur, where she was a dominant presence since 2002.
Ever since the loss in the assembly elections last year, Raje’s political fortunes have plummeted. Political observers say that Raje is gradually being shoved off the centre-stage of active politics in Rajasthan. Several key developments in recent months reflect Raje’s increasing marginalisation.
Also read: Vasundhara Raje’s bid to turn from ‘maharani’ to ‘sevadarni’ is too little, too late
Spiral from a one-woman show
Raje – a two-time CM and five-time MP – was a powerhouse in the state. Now, she is little more than just one of the 73 MLAs the BJP has in Rajasthan.
Despite Raje’s keenness to be the leader of the opposition after the last assembly elections, it was RSS-backed Gulab Chand Kataria who was given the top job.
Ironically, Kataria is the same leader whose decision to carry out a yatra in the Mewar region had created a crisis in the Rajasthan BJP in 2012 when Raje had threatened to leave the party – a threat that forced Kataria to cancel the yatra.
Although she was made the party’s national vice-president, it was seen as a move to ensure that Raje would no longer play a major role in Rajasthan. This was even more evident before the Lok Sabha elections where Raje had virtually no role to play in the distribution of tickets or deciding the party’s campaign strategy. It seemed a far cry from the woman who decided party tickets for all elections – from panchayat to Parliament— in Rajasthan for over a decade. In stark contrast, BJP chief Amit Shah paid no heed to Raje’s views in finalising party candidates.
Embarrassingly for Raje, the BJP even tied up with Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party for the elections. For years, Hanuman Beniwal has been an open critic of Vasundhara Raje, but the BJP needed him for the Jat votes, and ignored Raje’s opposition and discomfiture.
Inevitably, after the BJP’s huge win on 23 May, no Raje loyalist was included in the Modi Ministry; instead, some of the MPs chosen as ministers are known members of the anti-Raje camp in the Rajasthan BJP. Even the elevation of Om Birla as the Speaker of the Lok Sabha is seen as a snub to Raje, as the two never got along.
The facile explanation for these developments is that the BJP is grooming the next generation of leaders in the state. But the truth, as often happens in politics, is far more complex.
Also read: Rajasthan polls: How Vasundhara Raje managed to have the final say in ticket allotment
Tussle with Amit Shah and Modi
The key question is – why is the BJP cutting down its tallest leader in Rajasthan since Bhairon Singh Shekhawat?
The answer lies in the uneasy relationship that Raje has with Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. The buzz that she’s no favourite of the BJP’s top brass had troubled Raje all through her second term as CM, from 2013 to 2018. In the run-up to the last assembly elections, Raje and Shah were at loggerheads on two key occasions. First, in early 2018, Raje loyalist Ashok Parnami had to resign as state BJP chief. Amit Shah then wanted Union minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat to be the new president but Vasundhara vetoed the idea, arguing that it would upset the influential Jat community just ahead of state elections.
After the Raje-Shah tussle caused an embarrassing delay of 72 days, Amit Shah had to take a step back and agreed to make Madan Lal Saini the new Rajasthan BJP president. Shah-Raje tensions erupted a second time in 2018 during the tricky task of ticket distribution but eventually, Raje was given a free hand in choosing BJP candidates for the Rajasthan polls.
While her frictions with Shah may be of recent vintage, Raje’s troubled equation with PM Modi has a longer history. The bitterness between the two was a talking point in 2007 when Modi was the chief minister of Gujarat and a canal was constructed to supply Narmada waters to Rajasthan’s Jalore district. The two leaders, keen to claim credit for that achievement, got into a tussle. While Modi wanted a grand ceremony in Gujarat at the completion of the project, Raje insisted that the function should be held in Rajasthan.
Party insiders say one reason for this tussle was that Vasundhara regarded herself as senior to Modi and the animosity has simmered for years.
After Modi became the prime minister in 2014, Raje lobbied hard for some of her loyalists to get cabinet berths. But far from accommodating her demands, Modi chose ministers from the anti-Raje camp. The choice of minsters from Rajasthan created so much friction that the prime minister and the chief minister did not share a public stage for over a year.
Also read: The many ‘sins’ of Vasundhara Raje that are coming back to haunt her
Change of guard
Now, with the BJP sweeping all 25 seats in the Lok Sabha elections just a few months after losing the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Raje’s clout has further weakened. The choice of several younger leaders from the state shows that the BJP is clearly looking beyond Raje.
While Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is widely tipped to be the chief ministerial candidate whenever the BJP next forms a government in the state, the choice of Om Birla as the Speaker of Lok Sabha has caught many by surprise – he has been chosen primarily for his closeness to Amit Shah.
After the death of the state BJP president, Madan Lal Saini, political circles in Rajasthan are buzzing overtime. If Raje or one of her loyalists is given this key position, it might indicate some rehabilitation for Raje. But if the choice is from those in her rival camp, Raje’s isolation and marginalisation will be complete.
The author is a media professor and a journalist. Views are personal.