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HomeOpinionThe FactivistWing Commander Abhinandan being shot down is the real Rafale scandal

Wing Commander Abhinandan being shot down is the real Rafale scandal

PAF had outranged and outgunned India’s best fighter jets, and it’s only because of IAF’s training, awareness and some luck that Pakistan’s 27 February mission failed.

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Whether the Rafale deal is a scam or the best thing for India’s defence, people with greater eminence are fighting over. Let me, meanwhile, list four facts emerging from the 26-27 February air skirmishes to bring the story of what we can call the real Rafale scandal.

* In the Rajouri-Mendhar sector air skirmish a day after the IAF’s successful Balakot strikes, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) was able to create surprise and local superiority—technological and numerical—in a chosen battlefield. It struck in daylight when least expected, and perfectly timed the changeover of IAF AWAC patrols. The outnumbered IAF pilots (12 aircraft of three vastly different types) scrambled from various bases showed the presence of mind not to walk into the ambush set for them. But they failed to deliver a deterrent punishment on PAF.

* Four Sukhoi Su-30s, the IAF’s most powerful air-superiority aircraft, were involved in the melee at beyond visual range (BVR). They were surprised by the PAF F-16s firing their American AMRAAM missiles from so far that the Sukhois’ own radar/computer/missiles were not able to give them a “firing solution”. Translated: India’s best fighter, which constitutes half of IAF’s combat force, was outranged and outgunned.

* Fortunately, two of the upgraded Mirage-2000s were on patrol. These have new French missiles (MICA, or Missile d’interception, de combat d’autodefense) which are the exact peers of the F-16/AMRAAM. They were able to lock-on to some of the PAF planes, which panicked into dropping their South African-origin stand-off weapons (SOWs) in a hurry, mostly missing the targets. Nevertheless, one fell in the middle of the Nowshera brigade headquarters compound. It was closer than we think.

* Surprised, and outnumbered, the IAF scrambled six MiG-21 Bisons from Srinagar and Awantipur. Since these climbed in the shadow of the Pir Panjal range, the PAF AWAC failed to detect them. Their sudden appearance at the battlefield upset the PAF plan. This was fortuitous.

It is only because of IAF’s good training, situational awareness, and some luck that this audacious PAF mission failed. No ground target was hit. Its larger objective of luring vastly outnumbered and outranged IAF jets into a pre-set “killing zone” was the bigger failure.

Which brings us to our central question: Should we have even been having this conversation today if we had the military capability to match our economy (eight times Pakistan’s) and strategic ambition? 27 February reminded us that we don’t.


Also read: Modi’s BJP is sliding down the Rafale slope. It must stop outraging and come clean


If we had a functional defence acquisition system, by now we would have built such a gap that Pakistan wouldn’t even dare a retaliation. Check out on a rarely-reported Mirage-2000 laser bomb raid to clear a Pakistani incursion across the LoC in the Machil sector in 2002. Forget retaliation, the Pakistanis pretended nothing had happened. Indian air-to-air missiles then, on both Mirage-2000s and MiG-29s, had better range than the PAF which ducked the challenge. Computers, radars and missiles decide the outcome in modern, mostly BVR, post-dogfight era air warfare.

How did India lose that edge?

This serial crime began under the Vajpayee government. In 2001, the IAF projected the need for a new fighter to replace the MiGs. Its choice was more Mirage-2000s. Dassault was willing to shift its production line to India, the IAF knew the plane and loved it. By this time, the IAF would have had 6-8 more squadrons of the upgraded, Made-in-India Mirages with new missiles. The Rafale would probably not even be needed so desperately. PAF wouldn’t have dared to carry out the 27 February raid, and if it did, it would have been mauled. But then, George Fernandes, smarting under Coffingate and Tehelka, refused to go with a ‘single-vendor’ deal. The full process for a new acquisition was launched.

We slept for a decade. The Pakistanis got their new F-16s and AMRAAM missiles from the US after 2010. Tactical balance in the air shifted. We, meanwhile, took until 2012 for a new fighter—Rafale—to be chosen. Except that wrapped-in-latex defence minister A.K. Antony wouldn’t take a decision. Three of his negotiation committee of 14 dissented, so he set up a committee above them. To ensure further delay, he set up another committee of three outside ‘monitors’ to supervise this committee. Like Sunny Deol’s “taareekh par taareekh”, Antony’s method was ‘committee par committee’. Finally, all inputs in, the choice was clear. Sure enough, Antony ducked again.

He has said three things at different times: Within the MoD, he then said, call fresh bids. To the media, he said he didn’t have headroom in the budget that year. And now, in a moment of self-serving pusillanimity, he told the media three weeks ago that he put off the deal in the “national interest” since two eminent persons, Subramanian Swamy and Yashwant Sinha, had written letters pointing out problems in the deal and he had ordered an inquiry. He has since refused to talk about these letters, even when chased by our reporter. The issue is too sensitive, he tells her. Chances are, his party knocked him on the head for nearly killing its Rafale story just to save his own neck. I would be pleasantly surprised if he talks about those letters again.

The earlier 126-aircraft MMRCA deal was dead by the time the NDA came in. The first wake-up call came early enough, with the Pathankot raid. As usual, the air forces were first off the blocks, and during aggressive patrolling, IAF realised the PAF’s range superiority. It’s an unwritten story yet, but some MICA missiles were bought overnight, slung on Mirages, which flew deliberately close enough for PAF to observe them. In the four years since, how many of our 40+ Mirages can even carry that missile? Don’t ask me for the truth because, as Jack Nicholson’s Marine Col. Nathan R. Jessep said in A Few Good Men, “you can’t face the truth”. Be grateful that those two on patrol on the morning of 27 February did.

As I had promised, I am telling you about the real Rafale scandal without mentioning the Rafale deal. The Vajpayee government wouldn’t buy additional Mirages, scared of touching a single-vendor order. The MICA missile had first been sought by the IAF in 2001, the first only came in 2015 when Pathankot shocked the MoD to pull the file down from ‘orbit’. Existing Mirages then had to be upgraded. Two were upgraded by Dassault. HAL said it would do the rest. How many has it done yet? I warned you, you can’t face the truth.

Then it gets even more scandalous.

How did Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman cross the LoC? He was in visual pursuit of a PAF fighter for sure. But his controller was warning him to return. He didn’t. Because he couldn’t hear. As you’d expect in 2019, the battle zone had full radio-jamming. That’s why modern fighters have secure data links. Why didn’t that MiG have it? Ask the gallant Sir Humphrey of the MoD who blocked the purchase for three years claiming that a defence PSU would make it. Don’t ask me his name, find out. You might learn another truth you don’t want to face.

That order has lately been placed. With Israel. Soon enough, all IAF fighters will have this secure data link. And you’d die of shame, probably by jumping into the Yamuna’s stinking waters, when I tell you it is a purchase worth a mere Rs 630 crore, less than half the price of one Rafale. We were lucky to lose just one MiG that day.


Also read: Pulwama-Balakot helps Modi in polls — issues of farmers, jobs, Rafale don’t exist anymore


 

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92 COMMENTS

  1. Very rightly brought out! We in the Armed Forces have suffered frustration for decades! But Sir what surprises me is that in the entire tragedy of errors, omissions and commissions, while Vajpayee, George and Antony find mention, the cream of the country, the ones who actually run the Nation – the bureaucrats are nameless!
    It is time that they be exposed and held accountable! Who were the Def Secretaries, JSs Air & JSs DP etc behind the scam must be known, as they are the ones who orchestrate the composition!

  2. OMG…..wasted my time by reading first 4 lines….is about to proceed and read the name of author…..that’s it…..
    Utterly nonsense it must be….I bet you guys….

  3. So SU-30MKI failed because is Russian? Wait a minute MKI have Indian, French and Israel avionics? Yet blame it on Russia it is easiest way to wash out terrible procurement and production of weapons in India, maybe try next time to buy Russian plane with complete Russian avionics and have good maintenance for such planes(pay for it-easy to say bad producer support while not paying for it) and on top of that train you crews on MKI good. Mirage 2000 and MiG-21 if you read article they seemed better than MKI but for 21 you don’t say bad Russian equipment and do not saying Bison. If India where smart then should by Su-35 and would not have walked away from PAK-FA. Even F-18 is better then Rafale and not to talk about some obsolete mirage-2000. Why in hell Egyptians after they bought Rafal did buy MiG-29M and now are opting for Su-35? If French aircraft was so good why they did not ordered more but opted for two other types of aircraft?

    • Poppycock. The EAF has always bought Russian ac and used the MiG-21 better than the IAF. That was not because they were better, but because the Israelis were fighting with almost zero fuel reserve. They lost 5 ac to flameout.
      They are suffering badly because they have a mix of Mirage III & V, Mirage 2000, Rafale, MiG-29, F-16 A, B, C & D. Like the IAF, they prefer the Mirage 2000 backed by the Rafale. They paid 07% more for their Rafale vis a vis India.
      The EAF is a confused lot. After the upgraded MiG-29, they are buying the SU 35. A total nightmare for the maintenance crew.

  4. Shekhar Gupta complies lot of half stories for his masters. He is neither here not there. He has been consistently been in desire for self elevation.
    The simple fact is UPA for ten years remained contended with Wigs. Their interest in Defense purchases was limited to fat kickbacks.
    The inadequacy of air power is because of zero action by Manmohan government.
    Even in Naval power we r behind because Pakistan has acquired more Scorpion class submarines.
    Congress is real root cause of our poverty n Ill equipped armed forces right from 1962.

  5. What a great article by ‘The (nonsense) Print’…lol … This shows IQ of you all ppl… So (worst) Intelligent people you are…haha…. This shows education esp Journalism level has gone down so much in last 60 yrs…lol haha… U made my day by such (3rd class) article…. Do one thing all messup you collect if u find it not sufficient then take from neighbouring countries also who are always ready to give and join them with Mr. Modi s name….lol .. I had heard in journalism many idiot moron C class achievers in academic/school/College life are present…. And thank god today you showed me the proof…. Lollolol….hahaha… You rightly said it all started with Some govt in 20 yrs back… Correct before that india was not independent na….haha… There were no govt before 1999 so how the poor IAF would have got what they want na…. Thing is that morons dont understand by showing their IQ they think all in this country are like them idiots and cant understand anything and will blindly have faith on The(idiot)Print…. So my dear Moron people dont think all are like you… Haha… U made my day with such funny and fake articles…. Keep going on and show more of your IQ(if you have) ….hahahahaha

    • No Govt is interested in the Armed Forces, except in the lead up to the elections. Today, Defence Forces personnel are placed below the police!!
      And who do you think is evacuating the marooned in the floods? The fuckin Defence Forces.

  6. Thanks for sharing an insightful article. While it covered & named Former NDA PM and their drawbacks, it also covered the UPA Defense Minister’s attitude. Behind all the noise and chest thumping, its good to know where do we stand and why the need of the hour is a decisive government at centre with guts to take decisions.

  7. What a great pile of bullshit. The biased author desperately tries to put the blame of lack of latest jets on NDA government. While the clear responsibility of this job should be on the UPA government which ruled for two long terms (10 GODDAMN YEARS) and still didn’t procure the necessities of IAF. Author cleverly tries to start from the Vajpayee term just to give it an angle of an NDA failure.
    Its a shame on us Indians that we have so long tolerated such sold out journalists.

    • No bro its not shame on us ….
      This is The(nonsense) Print… they think all are morons like them… Haha… Take it as a funny comedy article…. Many such idiots you will find in all countries of world … They know no one pays attention to them hence they make such fake articles to gain controversy and to increase their own business…. Now they are jealous of Mr. Modi so doing this … Ignorance is best solution for such ‘The(3rd class) Print’….haha

  8. Dear Shekhar Gupta sir,

    Thanks for very informative article. But I have a few questions. It would be nice if you could answer them.

    1. If F-16s fired AMRAAM, were Su 30 MKIs hit? If yes, how many? If no, why? How could the evade these missiles?
    2. Were F-16s aided by AWACS or they caught Su 30 MKI with their own RADARs?

    tks in advance.

  9. AIM-120C-5 (AMRAAM) which the PAF uses on its F-16C/D Block 50/52+, has a range of around 100km; the IAF uses the RVV-AE (AA-12 ‘Adder’) as its primary BVR armament on the SU-30MKI, with a range of around 80km which is about the same as the MICA missiles used on its Mirage 2000I/TI (upgraded with RDY-2 radar)… so how is the Mirage 2000 upgrade more of a deterrent compared to the Su-30MKI (only factor perhaps is the much smaller RCS on the former)? And now COAS says Rafale with Meteor would have ensured that the PAF would have ducked just like 2002 in Machil sector. Lots of questions unanswered. The utter callousness, even indifference, concerning new military acquisitions and even upgradation of existing equipment by our successive governments over the past 20 is by now, legendary. Hope we wake up soon, or the latest stats of ‘just’ one MiG-21 Bison downed would go into multiple digits, should we get into another conflict with our neighbours.

  10. The unfortunate story of India is the fact that the Defense Secretary of India is constitutionally responsible for National Defense and not the Armed Forces! There is no one from the defense forces over all in charge even though the need has been projected many times for a Chief of Defense Staff!
    The beaurocracy and politicians put up a front suggesting that they know everything about matters military!
    Till this date we don’t have a documented national strategic directive , the Armed Forces are being treated in the shoddiest manner by the very ministry responsible for ensuring their morale, training, equipping and battle readiness!
    I have nothing more to say

  11. Bogus report. Even though PAF showed intent to strike Indian targets and managed to create surprise. it failed to do so and was made to back on its heels by an IAF package half of its size. Also, F-16 fired their missiles but all missed. What does it speak about Pakistani BVR training? Su-30 was not used as the Rules of Engagements and conditions at such a high altitude neither favoured Indian nor Pakistani side.

    Su-30s radar is much more powerful than the traditional APG-68 V(9) on the F-16s and had a missile (RVV-AE) that match AMRAAM in capabilities. They were waiting for the right time, unlike Pakistani counterparts who didn’t wait and lost their missiles. PAF pilots fired their missile out of NEZ and using countermeasures, Su-30s defeated F-16’s AMRAAM. This makes Su-30 victorious.

  12. Can political party be sued for inordinate delay in purchasing fighter jets on the cost of national security only defeat in election will not be sufficient

  13. Hogwash !!! It seems that the issue here is Narendra Modi and using words like Rafale is just to undermine the real intent of this biased , stupid and illogical analysis of concluding that wing commander Abhinandan was shot down because the government failed to procure proper upgrades . However my dear ignorant friend , your media referee will not tell you that in a dog fight it usually and always comes down to the pilot and not the aircraft. A f 16 being shot down by a mig 21 bison proves that even with sofisticated technology and jamming the IAF had an upper hand but that is not the case . The Tejas project was planned to clear the airforce of the ageing mugs yet the IAF academy traines their pilots to take on even the most technologically advanced adverseri using what they have at that it seems is something you will ignore because you don’t share the views that the NDA government toon the initiative to deliver hell to Pakistan and many other media houses dislike the same . Great biased one standard article that throws shit and questions the preparedness of the IAF . I guess wars are won by soldiers but they are condemned for their bravery by such slander

    • Aarav, our paper tigers in media, politics and industry will not understand the role of people, given technology. During the 71 war too, we had much worse hardware (let us blame Nehru, for my lack of specific knowledge) and we won the war. I do remember having read the news reports around some the conditions that our brave soldiers were fighting under. While I recognise that these were official accounts, but now it is hard to trust the private or public media in any case.

      Mr Gupta seems to (hopefully unknowingly) creating the demand for military-industry lobby (domestic as well as international) when he highlights the need for upgrading hardware. He does not seem to believe that the public sector can contribute, which is consistent with the belief of our current masters (I am using the term masters, as we are not expected to think and challenge the ideas of the greatest man ever born). I am always amused that our masters have no problem in taking credit for the work done by public sector employees when it suits them (yesterday). At the same time, they stop wages (e.g., TIFR, BSNL, etc.) or force HAL to borrow money for wages but extract divided to balance the budget.
      Mr Gupta and other also forget that the private sector often goes to the public sector to hire people at the all levels. That is not called subsidy. We are now anyway forcing people out of services so that they can go and join the private sector. I have never seen a private sector employer who pays the fee for his/her employee to go and study and then not require them to come back and work with organisation. GOI encourages (let us say not force) people to go and join IIM courses (at the government cost), post which they run around to find jobs in the private sector. We blame the same public sector and its people for being good for nothing. My question – who is good for nothing here – our darbari media, politician, private sector subsidy-seeking fat cats or the poorly paid public sector employee, including those in armed forces?

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