The results of the 2004 Lok Sabha election, the first to be conducted entirely through EVMs, were contrary to the expectations of most political commentators, editorial writers, psephologists, proponents of the ‘India Shining’ campaign, and Intelligence Bureau reports. All of which probably prompted Atal Bihari Vajpayee to call for early polls.
The election, held in four phases between 20 April and 10 May to elect the 543 members of the 14th Lok Sabha, yielded an outcome that not only shocked the BJP, but also surprised the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
Although the Congress only got seven more seats than the BJP, the UPA tally reached 225 seats. In addition, the bloc received external support from Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), Kerala Congress (KC), and the Left Front.
Political scientist Philip Oldenburg argued that the Congress did not win due to a large vote-swing, anti-incumbency vote, or revolt of the rural poor who were left out of ‘India Shining’; it won because it made good alliances in several states. Similarly, scholar Mahesh Rangarajan credited the victory to seat-sharing arrangements with alliance partners, while psephologist Yogendra Yadav suggested it was a victory by default. There is also an anecdotal recall that many pensioners and senior citizens were miffed with the sharp decline in the interest rates on their deposits in post offices and banks, which may have affected the support base of the BJP and the RSS.
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New power centres, ‘coalition dharma’
Facing opposition within her own party, Sonia Gandhi opted to appoint Manmohan Singh as the head of the UPA government in 2004. However, she headed the National Advisory Council, an extra–constitutional body that exercised oversight over the government, inviting criticism from many quarters. In effect, it became a parallel power centre, and many joint secretaries, including myself, were invited to make presentations on the various sectoral programmes of the government.
Another fallout of this election was ample displays of coalition dharma (or adharma), a term coined by Vajpayee, across both terms of the UPA. This meant that the Prime Minister had to concede many unreasonable demands from alliance partners. One example was when Mamata Banerjee insisted on the immediate dismissal of Dinesh Trivedi after he presented the Railway Budget in 2012.
Similarly, Manmohan Singh openly acknowledged that coalition dharma was a factor in DMK’s A Raja continuing as telecom minister amid the 2G scandal. It was with great difficulty, and after much uproar, that Raja was shelved—but the PM had to appeal to DMK chief Karunanidhi first.
The Prime Minister had no real authority over his colleagues who came from alliance partners. This naturally affected the performance of the government. Many newspapers described this situation as a conflict between coalition dharma and constitutional dharma.
Turning points in 2009 election
The Congress and the UPA did even better in the 2009 election, held from 16 April to 13 May. The Congress alone won 206 seats, 90 more than the BJP, which got 116. But the most important outcome of this election was that it signalled the end of Advani’s ambition of becoming India’s Prime Minister. It was 2009 that paved the way for the future leadership of Narendra Modi, then chief minister of Gujarat.
Slightly less important, but also quite significant, was the virtual rout of the Left Front as a strong political entity in the country. The Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) went from 43 seats to 16, the Communist Party of India (CPI) from 10 to 6, and the Forward Bloc and Revolutionary Socialist Party could each return only two MPs—a loss of one seat each for both. The overall strength of the Left came down from 59 to 26. After this election, their role in national polity became marginal, and their influence limited to the state politics of Kerala and West Bengal.
Another highlight of this election was the public spat between Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) N Gopalaswami and Election Commissioner Navin Chawla. Gopalaswami went to the extent of asking the President to dismiss Chawla for his allegedly “partisan” role. This was also the only election overseen by two consecutive CECs—Gopalswamy’s term ended on 20 April 2009, after which Chawla took over as the CEC.
In 2010, Chawla was succeeded by SY Quraishi, who wrote a well-received commentary on India’s elections, titled An Undocumented Wonder: the Making of the Great Indian Election.
After his retirement, Quraishi has been actively engaged as a public intellectual, writing on issues relating to the demographic transition among Muslims, as well as being an outspoken critic of the electoral bonds scheme of the Narendra Modi government, which allowed anonymous political donations. This scheme was unanimously struck down by a five-judge Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court on 15 February this year, on account of violations of the right to information under Article 19(1)(a) of the Constitution. The court also struck down the amendments made to the Income Tax Act 1961, and the Representation of the People Act, 1951, which had enabled anonymous political contributions.
Going ‘presidential’
The 2014 and 2019 elections were in many ways ‘presidential’, as votes were sought in the name of Narendra Modi. In 2014, the BJP won 282 seats on its own while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s tally stood at 336. They improved their performance in 2019, with the BJP getting 303 seats on its own, and the alliance partners winning another 50, taking the NDA total to 353.
In 2024, Narendra Modi, the lodestar of the BJP campaign for the third successive running term, is aspiring to equal, if not better, the Congress’ performance under Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 when it won 414 seats on its own. The buzz around a possible alliance between the BJP and Odisha’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), as well as the tie-up with Tripura’s TIPRA Motha, make the writing on the wall loud and clear.
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A new Act
Before closing this series, it is important to reflect on the recent changes regarding the appointment of the election commissioners.
In December 2023, Parliament passed the Chief Election Commissioner and Other Election Commissioners (Appointment, Conditions of Service and Term of Office) Act, replacing the 1991 Election Commission Act. This removes the CJI from the three-member committee for recommending appointments to the President, with the third member now being a cabinet minister.
In March 2023, based on the Law Commission on Electoral Reforms’ 225th report (2015), the Supreme Court, under Article 142, directed the formation of a committee to appoint the CEC and ECs. This committee comprised the PM, the CJI, and the Leader of the Opposition or the largest opposition party in the Lok Sabha.
Thus, the vacancy in the three-member Election Commission, which currently comprises CEC Rajiv Kumar and EC Arun Goel, will now be filled per the provisions of this new Act.
Sanjeev Chopra is a former IAS officer and Festival Director of Valley of Words. Until recently, he was Director, Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration. He tweets @ChopraSanjeev. Views are personal.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)