India’s COP26 commitment to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 is poised to lead the nation on a path to clean, green, and sustainable economic development. India, in 2022, has a tremendous responsibility to shape the course of its future: decisions made and implementations planned this year will drive climate security and justice, food and nutritional wellbeing, and equitable delivery of natural resources to the people.
Here are five critical trends that will advance sustainable development for India this year.
Climate justice
While announcing India’s long-term commitments at COP26, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also highlighted near-term targets for 2030, signalling that it is time to move from commitments to action. If climate change is not managed well, it can be inequitable, especially for the poor and marginalised communities. Hence, greater sensitivity to ensuring justice will be needed.
A shift from concentrated thermal power plants to decentralised solar generation, for example, will mean a shift in job locations and a change in the quality of jobs. A move from internal combustion engines to electric mobility could mean reduced jobs in vehicle maintenance, but possible increases in other sub-sectors. These factors cannot be ignored as we plan to lead action towards our commitments.
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Renewable energy
Renewable energy currently accounts for 10 per cent of the electricity generated in India. Reaching the capacity of 500 gigawatts by 2030, while sourcing 50 per cent of the energy requirement from such sources, calls for a transition at a massive scale. 2022 marks the first milestone in India’s journey towards this goal and it seems to be on track to achieve its annual 175 GW target. Making this transition at the needed scale also requires a look at opportunities beyond traditional solar and wind power.
Apart from financial needs, this transition will require shifts in the current distribution system, which is largely designed for concentrated generation and a grid-based system. This will have to change to accommodate decentralised generation and the possible use of smaller local grids. Investments will be needed for energy storage to mitigate the intermittency of renewable energy.
If managed right, a clean energy transition can improve the quality of life of rural communities, especially for women. It could also improve healthcare and education and facilitate a host of local economic activities to create new jobs.
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Food and restoration economy
Food and agriculture currently account for over 50 per cent of India’s employment and sustains 58 per cent of its population. Agriculture is one of the most climate-vulnerable sectors. Its transformation is necessary for building the adaptive capacity of farmers.
Evidence shows that diversifying the food basket leads to climate benefits and better nutritional security. This raises the question: can minimum support prices be an effective mechanism to boost crop diversity? Union Budget 2022 announced the Modi government’s support for millet processing and marketing in 2023. Apart from this, investments will be needed in land restoration and improved livelihoods. Given the competing uses of land in India, how will utility-scale solar, and plantations for sequestration ensure that the livelihoods of people who own, or depend on the land are not adversely affected?
Given that India has 18 per cent of the world’s population but only 2.4 per cent of its land mass, simply planting more trees may prove ineffective. The budget has announced plans to promote agroforestry that could help boost crop yields by adding trees to productive farmland, and, in turn, impact our rural communities.
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Integration and technology shifts in transport
Transport contributes around 13.5 per cent of India’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. This is well below the global average but will catch up with growing incomes. With more urban mobility, the urban transport sub-sector is likely to be the fastest-growing.
About 90 per cent of the sector’s emissions are from road transport, thus, requiring a pivot towards cleaner options like rail and water. But transport planning in India is highly fragmented. Policies in the sector are decided among five national ministries, making integrated planning tough.
The Gati Shakti Master Plan proposes an integrated approach for seamless multimodal connectivity. This will not only help in shifting demand toward cleaner modes but also in improving India’s competitiveness as an exporting nation. If well implemented, it also has the potential for reducing food loss and improving farmers’ income.
Also Read: Why climate finance is a big deal, and where negotiations have reached at Glasgow COP26
Cities and climate action
India’s urban population is expected to increase to over 800 million in 2050. The Modi government recognised the need for a new look at how cities are planned and managed in the Budget 2022 and proposed a high-level committee to review and recommend urban sector policies, capacity-building, planning, implementation, and governance. Planning that moves away from traditional master plans to a regional approach that integrates land-use and economic activities will become important. The private sector will have to step in and invest in the required urban infrastructure.
As the blue and green cover of cities decreases, it becomes important to understand their relationship with climate resilience. For example, Kolkata’s green cover has declined by 30 per cent in the last decade and the incidence of natural calamities has increased significantly. A growing number of start-ups focussing on clean water, sanitation, green construction, and sustainable mobility have been emerging. At a lower cost, they offer effective solutions to ease the burden on public finances.
In addition to these, air pollution, electric mobility, water, and green hydrogen are important stories to watch for India. Capacity building and developing leadership will be key to identifying problems and solutions.
The responsibility for change will rest not only with governments and industries but also with communities, civil society, and citizens. At COP26, the PM highlighted the need for “mindful and deliberate utilisation” rather than “wasteful consumption”. How this vision gets translated into action, will seal the future of India’s economy.
OP Agarwal is CEO, and Anandi Mishra (@anandi010) is Senior Associate, Communications, at World Resources Institute India. Views are personal.
(Edited by Srinjoy Dey)