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Vishwaguru vs who in 2024? Oppn has multiple answers if it chooses to look beyond Rahul Gandhi

Among a dozen PM contenders and pretenders, the opposition has three potentially disruptive choices—a Dalit, a woman and an OBC leader.

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At the Quad meeting in Hiroshima Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered to host the next summit in India. After a potentially eventful 2023 when India would be hosting global bigwigs, including the P5, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in July and the G20 in September, the Quad summit in 2024 would reaffirm India’s global stature in an election year. Think of the United States President and the Japanese and Australian Prime Ministers returning to India within a year for the Quad meet.

The Modi government worked hard to host the 2023 G20 summit. India was to take over the group’s rotational presidency and host the summit in 2021, but it swapped with Italy so as to host it in 2022 — its 75th year of Independence. Later, it swapped once more with Indonesia to host the G20 in 2023.

As for the Quad summit, Australia was supposed to be the host this year, but it had to be held on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Japan as US President Joe Biden had to return home for debt-cap negotiations. The Quad venue could have shifted to Australia for 2024, but PM Modi took the opportunity to make the offer to host it in India.

This gives the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a perfect opportunity to develop a new poll plank in the 2024 Lok Sabha election — the Vishwaguru or world leader. The description can be equally applicable to India’s global stature and that of PM Modi. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, it was about a ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’ replacing a ‘weak’ Prime Minister and replicating the Gujarat model of development across the country. In 2019, it was about a strong and decisive Prime Minister who wouldn’t hesitate to strike across the border in Pakistan as also about a kind-hearted, welfarist PM who would give LPG cylinders to poor people, provide villages with electricity, transfer money directly into their bank accounts, build toilets for them, and insure their health.

In 2024, the BJP would be seeking votes for a Prime Minister who has made India the Vishwaguruwith the heads of most powerful nations flying thousands of miles to rub shoulders with him. Think of the contrast the BJP would draw, citing how opposition leaders ‘denigrate’ India abroad by seeking foreign intervention to restore democracy, while PM Modi has taken India’s global stature to unprecedented heights. It would be a call for Indians to vote for national pride, not for mundane matters concerning their day-to-day lives. Voters may become increasingly transactional, but a prime minister who has taken a public stand against ‘revadi’ (freebie) culture may hope to secure a fresh mandate for national pride.


Also read: Time for India to show ‘Vishwaguru’ credentials. Start trade with Pakistan


Opposition’s match for Vishwaguru

Does the opposition have a match for the Vishwaguru? Going by the stated positions of their leaders, they would rather leave this ‘Modi vs who’ question for later. History, however, tells us that the opposition needs a face to unseat a popularly elected and stable government—think of Jayaprakash Narayan (JP) in 1977, VP Singh in 1989, and Modi in 2014.

One can argue that the opposition didn’t have a popular face in 2004 to unseat the popular Atal Bihari Vajpayee government. The counter-argument is that the Vajpayee government dug its own grave with its India Shining campaign. The Sonia Gandhi-led Congress then secured 145 Lok Sabha seats, just 7 more than the BJP.

Who else than Rahul Gandhi?

If the opposition leaves the ‘Modi vs who’ question open-ended, it would virtually mean another Rahul Gandhi vs Modi battle. They must believe in the third-time-lucky saying then. But for the moment, let’s leave the Rahul Gandhi question aside.

Who are the other PM probables in the opposition camp, regardless of their political stature and heft? One can safely discount leaders who have either been friendly with the BJP or who don’t seem inclined to break bread with the Congress at this point in time — Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik, Andhra Pradesh CM Jagan Mohan Reddy, leader of opposition in Andhra Pradesh N Chandrababu Naidu, and former UP CM Mayawati.

The Congress doesn’t seem to be willing to engage with two others—Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal—as it didn’t even invite them to the new Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s swearing-in ceremony on 20 May.

Anyway, the maximum number of Lok Sabha seats these two can bring to the table isn’t significant enough for the Congress to indulge their aspirations, if any. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, though former CM of a state that sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, doesn’t have that political stature yet—not in the run-up to the 2024 election, at least. Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin might be trying to bring together the opposition under a social justice platform, but he hasn’t shown any prime ministerial ambition yet.

That leaves us with some serious contenders—Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Sharad Pawar, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar. Of all the contenders outside the Congress, Pawar has the best credentials for the job. He comes from a state (Maharashtra) that sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha and has the political stature and statesmanship to bring everyone along. And the Congress may also be amenable to him.

But there are two big hindrances.

Pawar will be in his 84th year when the next Lok Sabha election is held, and he is not in the pink of health to undertake the gruelling task of a nationwide campaign. There is also a question mark on his appeal beyond Maharashtra.

As for Mamata Banerjee, her public utterances against Rahul Gandhi are of no help. That’s besides the question about her appeal beyond West Bengal.

This puts Nitish Kumar in an enviable position. In my #PoliticallyCorrect column of August 2022, I argued why he is the Congress’ best bet in 2024. I had proffered broadly five reasons for it. First, he enjoys a clean image and is not a dynast. Second, his Kurmi status could galvanise the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) — not just in Bihar but also in UP and other states. Third, the ‘Bihar PM’ slogan could come in handy in countering Modi’s popularity in the state, which sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Fourth, Rahul Gandhi is known to have a soft corner for him. Last, at 72, when he heavily depends on allies to prolong his political career, he doesn’t pose any long-term threat to the Congress.

I still hold the same arguments so far as a prime ministerial candidate from the Hindi heartland is concerned.


Also read: BJP’s 2014 mandate is near its expiry date. Modi magic didn’t work in Karnataka


A silent expanding footprint

I am tempted to toss up a couple of other candidates if it has to be someone from the Congress. I must caution the weak-hearted before I venture to say what may trigger many Rahul loyalists and admirers: What about projecting Priyanka Vadra as the party’s prime ministerial candidate? I know how they would react: How stupid! But think about it — when was the last time a woman was projected for the post? Indira Gandhi, right?

In contemporary Indian politics, women voters have few options to identify themselves with when the current BJP-led government seems to have started believing in the power of machismo. So convinced is the ruling party about PM Modi’s appeal among women voters, thanks to his welfarist schemes, that it doesn’t bother about India’s top women wrestlers protesting at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar against sexual harassment allegations by BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh. It has been three weeks since the Supreme Court forced Delhi Police to lodge FIRs against him, including one under the POCSO Act, but the police haven’t even called him for questioning, let alone arrest him.

Another: Haryana CM Manohar Lal Khattar, who has been putting up a stout defence of his minister and sexual assault accused Sandeep Singh, had a woman Sarpanch throwing her dupatta at his feet last week and saying: “Aap meri nahi sunte, koi baat nahi. Mere pati par jaanleva hamla hua tha. Ek aurat ki, ek Hindustani aurat ki izzat uske duppatte mein hoti hai. Yeh lo isse, yeh hai ek Hindustani aurat ka dupatta (You don’t listen to me, never mind. My husband was attacked. A woman’s, an Indian woman’s honour lies in her dupatta. Take this, this is an Indian woman’s dupatta).”

PM Modi’s welfarist measures — from building toilets, giving LPG cylinders, launching the Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao campaign, to providing free ration during Covid-19 — have amassed the support he enjoys today. The last few assembly elections have seen a dip in women’s support for the BJP, though. In the 2022 Himachal Pradesh election, the BJP saw a six percentage point decline in women voters’ support, as per the Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey. In Karnataka, the Congress won a majority of seats in constituencies where women outnumbered men, The Indian Express reported.

One may argue that the same trend may not hold when women have to vote for PM Modi, but it’s a good enough reason for the Congress to look into that constituency. The BJP’s trouble is that it hasn’t promoted women leaders. Out of 30 ministers in the Modi Cabinet, only two are women — finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and women and child development minister Smriti Irani. While the former has been confined to her role in the government, Irani, despite her abilities and potential, has been largely on the sidelines.

That’s where the Congress or the opposition has an opportunity in wooing women voters. Mamata Banerjee has evidently got them on her side in West Bengal and can potentially have an appeal among them beyond her state. But, as mentioned above, the Congress has too many reservations against her.

That’s where Priyanka Vadra becomes another option. She has been silently expanding her footprint beyond UP, where she is the general secretary in charge. She played an important role in the Congress’ win in Himachal. Her campaign created quite a buzz in Karnataka. Right after the Karnataka election campaign was over, she was in Telangana campaigning for her party. She is now set to visit Madhya Pradesh in the second week of June to boost her party’s preparations. Her profile as the party’s national campaigner and strategist has been growing, almost without notice. The party’s leaders and rank and file have been increasingly seeking her out.

The BJP has been rather wary of Priyanka Vadra even when she took on PM Modi during the Karnataka elections: “Tu idhar-udhar ki baat naa kar, yeh bataa kafilaa kyun loota (Don’t beat around the bush, tell us why the loot happened).”

The Congress projecting a woman prime ministerial face could threaten the BJP’s support base among women, but the ruling party can trust Sonia Gandhi to put her son in the front, instead. Priyanka’s candidature could have other complications, of course — the dynastic politics jibe by the BJP, corruption allegations against her husband, and her political and administrative inexperience. But she seems to put the BJP on the defensive. The ruling party’s reluctance to target her could have emboldened the Congress to experiment with a woman face. But, for all we know about the Gandhi family, Priyanka must play second fiddle to her brother.

The last option

That leaves us with the last option — Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. After Jagjivan Ram, no Dalit has had the political heft to be seen as a PM contender in a country that has around 17 per cent Dalit population. Except for Mayawati whose base among Dalits, even in UP, is vastly eroded, there is no national Dalit leader who can catch the fancy of this oppressed and underprivileged constituency. Kharge as the president of the biggest opposition party is a potential prime ministerial candidate, but the Congress is unlikely to look beyond the Gandhis.

I must put a caveat before I wind up. Nitish Kumar, Kharge, or Priyanka is still no match for PM Modi in terms of popularity. But they can help the opposition build a new narrative when it has none beyond anti-incumbency. As it is, opposition parties have to have their best hope in the third-time-lucky saying.

DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. Views are personal.

(Edited by Humra Laeeq)

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