As Prime Minister Narendra Modi takes guard on an unfamiliar, bouncy pitch, he may not be worried as much about the bowler as about the two umpires – Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. The two are known for their mercurial decisions and changing the rules of the game. In the current scenario, though, they are likely to act fairly until 2028 at least – as long as Modi plays sensibly and avoids pulling and hooking all the time.
No, I am not predicting the fall of the government, neither in 2028 nor before or after. For all we know, Amit Shah will soon be out buying cushions to shield the government from any possible blow from these two. Naidu and Kumar have no reason to raise their fingers any time soon.
Nitish, Naidu, Modi
Let me first explain why Modi could count on what the Bihar CM said at the NDA meet – that he would always be with the PM “fully”. The 2024 Lok Sabha election results have given the Janata Dal (United) chief a new lease of life. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), risk-averse in Modi’s case, needed Kumar for the Lok Sabha polls. The buzz in the BJP’s corridors then was that the JD(U) would win barely half a dozen seats in the Lok Sabha after which JD(U) MLAs would make a run for it. That would have been the endgame for Kumar, and BJP leaders were relishing the prospect. The Lok Sabha election outcome came as a big dampener for the BJP’s plans for India and Bihar. The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey has shown that those predicting doom for the JD(U), including yours truly, underestimated Kumar’s popularity – and luck. So Modi or Kumar – state or Centre – which government’s work mattered more to people when they cast their vote this year? 24 per cent of respondents said the latter while 18 per cent credited the former.
Add to this the fact that the JD(U)’s strike rate in the Lok Sabha election is better than the BJP’s, howsoever symbolically. They won 12 seats in Bihar although the BJP contested one seat more—17—than the JD(U). Modi needs Nitish Kumar’s support for stability at the Centre. It’s a done deal that Kumar would be the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate in the 2025 Bihar assembly election. As it is, the BJP can declare him the NDA’s CM candidate in 2030, too, if Kumar wishes so. Therefore, there is no reason for him to make another somersault and return to the Opposition alliance, especially when Rashtriya Janata Dal’s Tejashwi Yadav is emerging stronger day by day and is unlikely to offer CMship to ‘chacha Nitish’ again.
It’s, however, true that you can’t ever be sure about Kumar. His decision to come to Delhi with Tejashwi on a chartered flight gave jitters to the BJP for a few hours. But the Bihar CM’s attempt to touch PM Modi’s feet at the NDA meet sure calmed their frayed nerves.
Chandrababu Naidu, Andhra Pradesh’s first and most successful CEO, has his task cut out – fix the economy. State finances are in a mess. Besides, he has the opportunity to finish his political challenger – Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP)’s Jagan Mohan Reddy. The outgoing CM has been on bail for the last 11 years, with cases against him barely moving. Out of power, Reddy must be dreading his return to jail. If that happens, the YSRCP, a one-leader party, would be up for grabs. Nothing would be more satisfactory to Naidu, who was jailed by his predecessor in an alleged scam.
The Telugu Desam Party chief must be relishing the prospect of finishing his principal challenger in the state for good. He also has to groom his son, Nara Lokesh, as his successor. Lokesh has shown brilliant political skills and the stamina to fight it out on the streets. He did a 3,000km pada yatra last year, after all. Given that he is widely accepted and respected by his party colleagues, the succession, whenever it happens, will be smooth. Naidu will be happy with a friendly and dependable centre helping him to achieve all these objectives.
Also Read: BJP’s task—win ally support on UCC, bring strong leader in Haryana, retain SS-NCP defectors
No threat till 2028?
You must be wondering by now that if I see both Kumar and Naidu happily settled in this marriage of convenience with the BJP, why am I talking about a tentative timeframe—until 2028? There are several factors I am looking at. First, Kumar and Naidu may not want to share the three-term anti-incumbency of the BJP in 2029. PM Modi’s popularity is declining as is evident from the results – even in Uttar Pradesh. In the CSDS-Lokniti survey in UP, 36 per cent of respondents preferred Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister against 32 per cent who opted for Modi.
Modi has been the biggest pull factor for both Kumar and Naidu. If his popularity continues to wane, they would be quick to dissociate from the BJP. And if they have to do it, six months or a year before the next Lok Sabha election would be an opportune time. For Naidu, 11 per cent minority voters – up to 20 per cent, by some estimates – a significant chunk of whom aligned with the YSRCP earlier, would also be a factor. Then there are imponderables.
Mind you, PM Modi has retained Amit Shah in the Cabinet. He had given a short shrift to both Naidu and Kumar earlier and they don’t get along with him. And if he continues to run the government the way he did in the last term, it may hasten the allies’ exit.
Shah’s chequered record in office is something I will talk about in detail in a separate story soon.
Returning to the current subject, Modi has no reason to worry about the stability of his government on account of his allies any time soon. He is already saying the right words like ‘consensus’ and no longer using ‘Modi’ in every sentence. That’s a good start.
The PM, however, has to undergo other trials by fire. There are crucial assembly elections in the next seven to eight months, in Jammu and Kashmir, Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, and Delhi. BJP’s performance in these states in the Lok Sabha elections doesn’t inspire hope about its prospects in the state elections.
And if the BJP fails to win most of these states, it will be seen as another indicator of Modi’s waning popularity. The current whisper about the need to identify a successor may grow into a clamour if the BJP doesn’t do well in these elections. This will also revive the debate on the 75-year age ceiling in the BJP—and also in the larger Sangh Parivar.
Just for reference, Modi will turn 75 on 17 September 2025. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat will turn 75 six days before that, on 11 September. Bhagwat’s colleagues in the RSS say that he is likely to step down when he turns 75. It’s too early to talk about this, though.
In the coming months, Modi must prove the sceptics wrong about his popularity. Nobody prays to the setting sun—least of all politicians.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
The general elections have brought the era of coalition government in operation. Nothing is permanent and so is the popularity of PM Modi. Even Mohan Bhagwat in a statement today advised government has to go with consensus. It was indeed height of arrogance the BJP President JP Nadda having announced Bjp does not need RSS. I would like to mention what late Acharya Kriplani the veteran Congress President having said “politicians are the people standing with their feet in sand and legs made of clay.” History tells us that man learns nothing from history. Your write up is well analysed and an warning too.
“Nobody prays to the setting sun—least of all politicians.” Weighty statement. I hope Modi still thinks of himself as a politician and not a God-send ruler i.e. authorized by God. It is to be noted that Modi always had absolute majority during his tenures of more than 23 years as CM or PM till now. And he is habituated to rule like a monarch or like a CEO. It will be very difficult for a person with authoritarian tendency to work under consensus. I suspect Modi’s persona will be the biggest handicap in Modi 3.0 government.