The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh chief, Mohan Bhagwat, is one of the finest orators in the country. He has a way with words, like nobody else. He can speak a lot but say nothing. And he can speak very little but say a lot. All without a teleprompter.
The second form was on display on the concluding day of the RSS’ three-day programme in the national capital on 28 August. There was a question about the reasons for the delay in the appointment of the new national president of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). “Hum tai nahin karte. Hum tai karte, toh itna samay lagta kya? (We don’t decide. If we were to decide, would it take so much time?),” said Bhagwat. “Take your time,” added the RSS chief with a cryptic smile as the audience split their sides laughing. They knew who his message was meant for. Bhagwat was essentially conveying to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minster Amit Shah that the RSS was not going to be worn down and they could take as much time as they wished to get round the Sangh.
The BJP president’s post has been lying vacant since JP Nadda’s term, as extended by the National Executive, ended in June 2024. The party completed its membership drive last year but looks reluctant to divulge the new membership figure. After the last membership drive, which concluded in 2019, the party had declared 18 crore members with a lot of fanfare.
More than the stalemate over Nadda’s successor, what is upsetting party leaders and the rank and file is how the high command does not seem to consider them stakeholders in the BJP. Multiple leaders I have been speaking to have argued that Modi-Shah could have at least got the party’s Parliamentary Board to extend Nadda’s tenure till the election of his successor. As a former BJP MP told me a few weeks back, “Why are you asking me? The party belongs to two persons. Who are we to ask questions?”
Think of a party whose 18 crore members have no idea why they don’t have a duly elected president and, more so, why the high command doesn’t find them important enough to be informed.
Who after PM Modi?
So, what is holding up the next BJP president’s appointment? We know the answer, I guess. The more important question is: Why should the BJP’s top leadership and the RSS lock horns over the choice of the next president? Nadda was a mere figurehead, wasn’t he? So, why is this post suddenly so important for both? The answer lies in another hotly contested issue in the party — that is, PM Modi’s successor. Let’s see how the debate is shaping up.
North-East Delhi MP Manoj Tiwari made a sort of revelation in an interview with my colleague, Neelam Pandey, last week. That Narendra Modi will be the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate in 2034, too. He said he was hopeful that Modi would complete his 2034 tenure — that is, till 2039. The BJP MP was convinced that Amit Shah would succeed Modi as the PM.
Shah will celebrate his 61st birthday on the 22 October. Going by Manoj Tiwari’s prediction or postulation, Shah may have to wait for 14 more years. He can afford to wait, now that RSS chief Bhagwat has invalidated the 75-year age ceiling, ostensibly.
Manoj Tiwari said that Yogi Adityanath and Devendra Fadnavis could come after Amit Shah (as the Prime Minister). Well, if Shah completes even one term — till 2044 — by the time Yogi’s or Fadnavis’ turn comes, they would be 72 and 74, respectively. They can take heart from the Russian and the Chinese Presidents’ recent conversation in which Xi Jinping spoke of the possibility of humans living till 150 years and Vladimir Putin said how people could get younger, perhaps even immortal.
Manoj Tiwari, who as a Samajwadi Party candidate unsuccessfully contested against Yogi Adityanath from Gorakhpur in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, was only endorsing what fellow parliamentarian and party colleague Nishikant Dubey said earlier. Amit Shah’s popularity was “beyond imagination” and the UPites primarily voted for PM Modi, not Yogi, Dubey had said in a podcast.
While the Shah-or-Yogi debate is on, many other ambitious BJP leaders could be drawing a lesson or two from Robert Downey Jr of Oscar-winning Oppenheimer, who played Lewis Strauss: “Amateurs seek the sun. Get eaten. Power stays in the shadows.” India Today’s Mood of the Nation surveys could give them some food for thought. In the August 2024 edition of the MOTN survey, to the question about the best BJP leader to succeed Modi, 25 per cent respondents had chosen Amit Shah, 19 per cent Adityanath, 13 per cent Nitin Gadkari, and 5 per cent Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
A year later, in the August 2025 edition of the MOTN survey, Shah has gained a bit, with 28 per cent of respondents finding him the best suited to succeed Modi. About 26 per cent opted for Yogi Adityanath, showing an increase of 7 percentage points over one year and narrowing the gap between him and Shah to 2 percentage points. Those who see Nitin Gadkari as best suited to be Modi’s successor have dropped down to 7 per cent. Rajnath Singh and Nirmala Sitharaman got support from 3 per cent each. As of today, it’s looking like a two-horse race, which may prompt other claimants to stay in the shadows. They know that it’s an endurance race and galloping early is not a wise strategy.
Also read: RSS chief Bhagwat draws the line at 75. India’s politics stares at the Modi Exception
Creating the mahaul
At this point, let’s return to the central question: Why is the choice of Nadda’s successor so crucial to Modi-Shah and the RSS? For the RSS, it’s obvious. While it gained a lot from swayamsevaks and ex-pracharaks being in power, it has lost its veto in both the government and the BJP. With PM Modi’s popularity and Amit Shah’s poll strategies, a “saksham” BJP wanted complete autonomy. Nadda said in as many words. The RSS must regain control, which makes the next party president’s choice vital. The Sangh would like Nadda’s successor to be committed to the ideology and the organisation, not to individuals.
And for Modi and Shah, a party president with an independent mind and a hot line with Nagpur headquarters of the RSS would mean the emergence of a parallel power centre. What is it that the next BJP president can do that Nadda didn’t or couldn’t? A lot, as I have gathered from my interactions with BJP leaders over the last few weeks. They don’t want another rubber stamp.
Let me assume here that it will be a male politician. A woman becoming the BJP national president is as probable as Sonia Gandhi declaring Priyanka Gandhi Vadra the Congress’ PM candidate. Never discount the possibility of PM Modi springing a surprise, though. For now, we can go with my assumption. As BJP leaders I interacted with think, the next party president can and should reverse the BJP’s Congressification and make it a party with a difference again. He can make decision-making processes consultative and democratic. He can make performance and accountability, not personal loyalty and sycophancy, the basic criteria for promotion and rewards. Picking a chief minister or Union minister or a party office-bearer can’t be a matter of personal like or dislike. The next BJP president can emphasise on transparency in the allotment of party tickets in the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. Many BJP leaders believe today that the so-called feedback reports of in-house and hired survey agencies are increasingly becoming hatchet jobs to deny tickets to certain leaders. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP denied tickets to many sitting MPs only to lose many of those seats.
Among a lot of other things, the next BJP president can stop the ongoing US-style primaries in the BJP for PM Modi’s successor long before he hangs up his boots. See how putative Modi successors — in Lucknow, Mumbai and elsewhere — find themselves under siege from within. It’s very important for an aspiring Modi successor to have his loyalists in key positions — as Union Ministers, MPs, CMs, ministers in state, MLAs, BJP presidents in states and other party office-bearers. Their voices will be crucial in creating the mahaul or momentum — and even influence the RSS’ decision — whenever it comes to choosing PM Modi’s successor. One needs a loyalist as the next BJP president to have those loyalists in key positions. It may become even trickier if he himself happens to be in the race.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.
(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)