Devendra Fadnavis is no Shivraj Chouhan. Yet his worry is growing as Modi-Shah dither

The impending succession battle in BJP makes the choice of the next Maharashtra CM crucial—more in terms of power dynamics in the party than those in the Mahayuti.

BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis waves the party's flag as he arrives to collect his winning certificate after the Maharastra Assembly election results | File Photo | ANI

Maharashtra Bharatiya Janata Party president Chadrashekhar Bawankule made a curious X post on Saturday. The oath-taking ceremony of the Mahayuti government will take place at 5 pm on 5 December, he declared. As powerful as Bawankule may be, announcing the date without the party formally staking a claim or getting the governor’s invitation to form the government is presumptuous. Not that any Raj Bhawan occupant would think of reminding a BJP president of his remit or technicalities.

The BJP first needs to convene a meeting of the legislative party to elect its leader – that is, the next chief minister. Their names haven’t been announced yet. So, why would Bawankule jump the gun? Many BJP leaders would have us believe that the state BJP president was trying to send a message to ‘sulking’ Eknath Shinde, who left for his native village right after the Mahayuti leaders’ meeting in Delhi. We should take such explanations with a pinch of salt, especially because Shinde is not known to live in an ivory tower.

He may hope against hope that the BJP shows magnanimity and offers him CM-ship. But the practical politician that he is, Eknath Shinde wouldn’t throw tantrums after leaving it to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to decide the next CM’s name. Ditto for portfolios. Among all the partners in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Shinde is the closest to both. Anyway, they won’t be so indiscreet as to divide the portfolios among allies without consulting the next CM, who hasn’t been decided yet. Incidentally, Shinde had a one-on-one meeting with Amit Shah in New Delhi just hours before the caretaker CM left for his village.

As for Bawankule’s tweet, all one can surmise is that the Maharashtra BJP president wouldn’t post such things without checking with the party high command. We should, therefore, expect the BJP MLAs to convene by 3 December if the swearing-in ceremony is scheduled for 5 December. BJP MLAs, though, are still waiting for a formal communication.

That brings us to the question of the delay in holding the legislative party meeting. The BJP can muster a majority on its own in the assembly if it wants. Allies can’t afford to throw tantrums. So, why is the party not able to decide its CM face eight days after the election results? After all, Devendra Fadnavis’ face beamed from BJP’s posters all over Maharashtra, and he is said to be the obvious choice.

All that may give jitters to Fadnavis

So why the confusion and delay? After the Madhya Pradesh assembly election in 2023, it took eight days for the BJP to drop Shivraj Singh Chouhan as CM and replace him with Mohan Yadav. Unlike in Maharashtra, there was no dispute over credit for the BJP’s victory in MP; it was entirely Chouhan’s. The four-term CM was also a political heavyweight but not heavy enough to stop Modi-Shah from tossing him to the sidelines.

He was later made a Union Cabinet minister, but the solatium would have brought Chouhan little solace. This precedence must give jitters to Devendra Fadnavis. What was supposed to be a done deal—announcement of his name as the next CM—is stuck, with no word from the high command.

Shivraj scare for Fadnavis

Until Shivraj Chouhan was dumped, he seemed to have everything going right for him. He had steered the BJP to a scintillating victory even after four terms as CM. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) liked him. He belonged to the other backward classes (OBCs), which are estimated to constitute around half of MP’s population. He was a man of consensus who carried his party colleagues along. He maintained a cordial relationship with the BJP high command and so on. He had two problems, though. The party high command wanted a new face (read puppet CM). The bigger problem was that he was seen as a potential prime minister.

Let’s do a SWOT analysis of Devendra Fadnavis’ merits and demerits. He is a very competent administrator. So much so that when he was the CM, he was seen as another potential prime minister. He enjoyed the image of a development-oriented CM. He delivered electorally, too. He led his party and alliance to victory in the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections but Uddhav Thackeray denied him a second term. When the BJP managed to return to power two-and-a-half years back, the high command favoured Eknath Shinde as the CM. Fadnavis’ critics in the BJP say that, unlike Chouhan, he doesn’t get along with many of his party colleagues.

Eknath Khadse quit the BJP after 40 years in 2020, blaming Fadnavis for it. He wanted to return to the BJP ahead of the assembly election and even got his daughter-in-law a ministerial berth at the Centre. But the ex-CM put his foot down. Khadse announced his retirement from electoral politics last month. The list of BJP leaders who suffered after falling out of favour with Fadnavis is long—BJP national general secretary Vinod Tawde, former MP Poonam Mahajan, Pankaja Munde, et al. Fadnavis comes from Nagpur and has had a long association with the RSS.

Sangh functionaries, however, tell me that the RSS is “neutral” about Fadnavis’ chief ministerial bid this time. Caste equations don’t favour Fadnavis either. He is a Brahmin, a community that’s electorally insignificant in Maharashtra. To make it worse, Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange Patil is ranged against him. Fadnavis got free rein in the Lok Sabha elections but failed to deliver. Amit Shah took command of the assembly polls, right down to deciding candidates, and reversed the Lok Sabha trend.

Devendra Fadnavis and Amit Shah aren’t great pals. Just as Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath isn’t a bosom friend of the home minister. Then, there are many ex-CMs nursing deep grudges about being unfairly denied another term. In PM Modi’s third term, all these leaders could add a curious twist to the succession battle. That makes the choice of the next Maharashtra CM crucial—more in terms of power dynamics in the BJP than those in the Mahayuti.

Fadnavis may still hope to conquer the odds. Modi is said to still like him. As for his antagonistic relations with Jarange Patil, the fact is that the Mahayuti won 40 out of 46 seats in Marathwada despite Fadnavis addressing only two rallies there. It’s also a fact that the BJP won 132 out of the 148 seats it contested, with Fadnavis as the party’s face. Also, the BJP needs a strong CM who can deal with powerful and politically and administratively sharp deputies—Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. A Mohan Yadav or a Bhajanlal Sharma is not an option in Maharashtra. The BJP doesn’t have an alternative to Fadnavis unless someone like Nitin Gadkari throws his hat into the ring. That’s the last thing Modi-Shah would want.

DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. He tweets @dksingh73. Views are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)