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Pakistan is imploding. A failing neighbour will be a nightmare for India and the world

Pakistan Army is a professional force and will bring about order. The question is whether it will do so by a coup or by ordering elections with or without Imran.

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With the arrest of the former Prime Minister and leader of  Tehreek-e-Insaf, Pakistan is in turmoil. For the first time in the history of Pakistan, supporters of a political party targeted the army and attempted to storm the Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi. In Lahore, the residence of the Corps Commander was vandalised. As per Twitter, even war memorials have been damaged. Fears have been expressed about Pakistans descent into chaos and anarchy”. Imran Khan himself and his supporters have blamed the army and not the Shehbaz Sharif-led coalition government. All eyes are on the Chief of the Army Staff General Asim Munir to bring about some sort of stability.

There has been smug satisfaction in India that Pakistans capacity to challenge Indias security, particularly by exporting/supporting terrorism, has been severely affected by its existential economic crisis, internal political turmoil, now further compounded by the arrest of Imran Khan, and serious internal security threats from homegrown terrorism. And that sporadic terrorist attacks in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) were more for retaining relevance and keeping the J&K issue alive rather than a real threat that can cause serious strategic damage.

Former Chief of the Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwas 2021 statementtanks are not in a condition to work, there is no diesel for the movements of cannons…so let’s settle issues with India”, only substantiated the argument. Repeated assertions by our own security establishment also tend to support this view. So much so, that India has scheduled the G20 tourism working group meeting in Srinagar from May 22 to 24.

But a reality check based on past experience with Pakistan and empirical wisdom leads to exactly opposite conclusions. Economic deprivations and internal strife rarely result in primordial and religious conflict being given up. It continues, at times, even to the extent of self- destruction. I examine the national security challenges likely to be faced by India from an imploding Pakistan.


Also read: Imran Khan’s arrest in Pakistan proof the Army has won. But silencing him won’t help govt


A timely warning

Two major terrorist attacks in 15 days (20 April and 5 May), resulting in 10 soldiers being killed in action and the fulminations of Pakistans foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto, both in and outside of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation foreign ministers meeting on 5 May, is a timely warning for India.

It may be a coincidence, but the time (3 pm) of the ambush in area of Tota Gali on Bhimber Gali – Surankot road on 20 April, which resulted in five soldiers being killed in action and one wounded, was approximately 1.5 hours after the announcement (1:22 pm) of the visit of Bilawal Bhutto to attend SCO foreign ministers meeting in Goa by Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan. The news of the second ambush with an IED in Kandi forest of Rajouri district, which took place at 07:30 am on 5 May and resulted in another 5 Special Forces commandos being killed in action and one officer wounded, was breaking on news channels while the meeting of the foreign ministers was still in progress. The second ambush appears to have been a deliberate trap laid by the terrorists who lured the soldiers by feeding planted information.

During the foreign ministers meeting, diplomatic niceties were observed with both India and Pakistan stating their known positions on terrorism and other matters without naming each other. Jaishankar highlighted, cross-border terrorism”. Bilawal indirectly accused India of weaponising terrorism for diplomatic point scoring”. He also obliquely referred to abrogation of Article 370 and need for great power mediation on interstate disputes implying J&K.

After the news of the Kandi terrorist attack, diplomatese was given short shrift and both sides bluntly stated their absolutist positions targeting respective domestic opinion. Bilawal Bhutto was first off the mark with a well-choreographed press conference mostly attended by Pakistani journalists who were part of his entourage. He reiterated Pakistans position on terrorism and abrogation of Article 370 and put the onus on India to create conducive conditions for future talks. When asked about India holding G20 tourism meet in Srinagar, with a smirk on his face, Bilawal crudely threatened, “waqt par aisa jawab denge ki unko (India) yad rahega (when the time comes, we will respond in a manner that India will remember)”.

A few hours later, the response of S Jaishankar was even more scathing and unforgiving. Apart from point by point rebuttal in very caustic language, he castigated Bilawal Bhutto of being a promoter, justifier, and I am sorry to say spokesperson of a terrorism industry, which is the mainstay of Pakistan”.


Also read: Imran Khan’s fall due to blaming others, deflecting responsibility all the time: Ex-PTI worker


Pakistans crisis and proxy war

Due to primordial religious emotions, perceived deprivation of J&K in 1947 and its dismemberment in 1971, Pakistan considers India to be an enemy State. It has an unambiguous India-centric long term national security strategy backed by a political, public and military consensus. It has waged a proxy war in J&K since 1989 under the shadow of nuclear weapons, which safeguard it from existential threat from India. As a weaker State, Pakistan has given up the idea of militarily defeating India and after 2008, it has also given up perpetrating terrorist acts in the hinterland of India. However, despite all odds, it has persisted with its strategy in J&K.

The humiliating defeat of Kargil only spurred it to increase the tempo of terrorism. The threat of being bombed back to Stone Age triggered only a temporary change. Operation Prakaram did not deter it. Surgical Strikes and Balakot Air Strike were dismissed with contempt. In Afghanistan in a span of 42 years (1979 to 2021), it defeated two superpowers — erstwhile USSR and the US, ironically both times being financed by the latter.

Despite its economic, political and ever-increasing homegrown Islamic Terrorism, Pakistan has persisted with the proxy war in J&K. Its intensity has been calibrated to avoid the sanctions of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Proxy wars have also been diluted to a great extent by more efficient management of counter-insurgency operations by the Indian Army, particularly in the Valley, by strengthening the counterinfiltration grid.

There has been a discernible change in tactics. Encounters with security forces are being avoided. In the last one year, the minority community has been specifically targeted, both in the Valley and in Punch, and Rajouri districts. Due to heightened security in the Valley, Punch and Rajouri districts have been reactivated since 2021. This is also due to a void in the counter-insurgency grid due to movement of the Uniform Force with two Rashtriya Rifles Sectors to Eastern Ladakh. The data does indicate an overall drop in violence up to May 2023. In my view, this is temporary  and violence will increase with the onset of summer.


Also read: Pakistan cracks down on Imran Khan’s supporters after violence


An unstable Pakistan will be worse for India

Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee wrote in the visitors book of Minar-e-Pakistan during his Bus Yatra in 1999: A stable, secure and prosperous Pakistan is in Indias interest. Let no one in Pakistan be in doubt. India sincerely wishes Pakistan well.” There is immense wisdom in his words. A belligerent Westphalian State of Pakistan whose conduct can be tempered by international pressure and FATF sanctions is far better than an anarchical state. Currently facing an economic crisis, its conduct can also, to some extent, be shaped by the International Monetary Fund and other donor states. Its errant behaviour can invite international sanctions. So long as Indian security forces can keep the proxy war within manageable limits, a Westphalian Pakistan at worse is only an irritant.

A failed, anarchical Pakistan will be a nightmare for India and the world. Imagine a nation armed with nuclear weapons dominated by religious fanatics with a death wish. It will team up with the Taliban in Afghanistan to establish an Islamic Caliphate. The consequence for J&K would be horrendous and the proxy war will spill over into the hinterland of India. Even in its best avatar — the Iranian model — it will offer no solace to India.

Pakistan Army with all its flaws is a professional force and will bring about order in Pakistan. The moot question is whether it will do so by a coup or by ordering elections with or without Imran Khan. The world cannot afford a failed Pakistan and will soon come to its aid. It would be prudent for India to strive for a stable Pakistan as part of the international order whose conduct can be controlled with economic strings.

Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.

(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)

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