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Imran Khan’s arrest in Pakistan proof the Army has won. But silencing him won’t help govt

The Al-Qadir Trust case is just the beginning of the military’s plan to lock up Imran until he surrenders.

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The Pakistani military struck back with a vengeance when it forcibly picked Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chief and former Prime Minister Imran Khan from the Islamabad High Court premises, where he was completing a biometrics procedure for some of the cases against him. Rangers, the country’s para-military force, allegedly dragged Imran from his wheelchair in the biometrics room of the IHC to present him before the National Accountability Bureau – Pakistan’s primary anti-corruption agency – court on the orders of NAB’s new chairman, the retired Lt. General Nazir Ahmed.

NAB’S accusation is that Imran and his wife, Bushra Bibi, had repeatedly refused to cooperate with the agency in the ‘Al-Qadir Trust case’ investigation. The case is related to an alleged settlement between the couple and real estate tycoon Malik Riaz, which led to a loss of (Pakistani) Rs 50 billion to the national exchequer.

But to be clear, this is neither about corruption nor the ruling government trying to discipline a recalcitrant former PM. It is what one must call the final round of a conflict between opposing forces inside the Pakistan Army’s General Headquarters (GHQ), where Imran’s continued incarceration or release will indicate the side that has won the day.

Decoding GHQ’s machinations

Though the face of this action is the civilian ruling coalition headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, there is little doubt in the minds of most that the political government is just a front. From a GHQ-created politician challenging the top General to ordinary folk (PTI supporters) forcibly entering and damaging military properties in retaliation to their party president’s arrest, the entire situation was unprecedented.

No leader created by the politically influential Pakistan Army has ever dug his heels and fought back this hard, especially in his early years of power. Furthermore, the sight of people occupying military property and damaging it in his name was historic. For example, it was unimaginable to hear the response of a man part of the group that ransacked the Lahore Corps Commander’s residence and stole live peacocks from it. He justified his actions by saying that as an ordinary citizen, he was only claiming his rightful share from a military that had stolen from him all these years.

Intriguingly, the army is not exposing itself as it has allowed the Punjab police and the Rangers to tackle the crowd. Some sources I spoke to even suspect that this may all be staged as the Corps Commander’s Lahore residence was vacated a week ago, suggesting that the authorities deliberately ignored the historic building’s vandalisation. This leads to the conjecture that the GHQ group supporting the current army chief is actually orchestrating the incident. It almost reminds one of the time when the Egyptian military sacrificed its own, President Hosni Mubarak, to the marching crowds. People were only given a temporary respite as the military eventually regained control, tried the popularly elected PM Mohammed Morsi, and exhausted him to death. PTI supporters feel elated about pushing back the army, but the joy will soon be snatched from them.


Also read: Imran saga shows Pakistan’s hybrid govt is deeply flawed. It only adds to his confidence


Al-Qadir Trust case is just the beginning

The unfolding of events has proved yet again the army’s institutional capacity to use other State institutions to its advantage. NAB was used yet again as a military instrument to get rid of a naysayer. The NAB case is just the beginning of keeping Imran incarcerated until the Pakistan Army and its new political partners are ready to hold elections that may not necessarily happen this year. The higher courts are also being slowly brought around to cooperate with the GHQ instead of pushing back. The Islamabad High Court’s ruling was that Imran was legally arrested in the Al-Qadir Trust case, which the PTI did not expect.

However, this ruling comes without a proper inquiry into the case. Interestingly, Imran, during his tenure, had used NAB to incarcerate Mir Shakilur Rehman, the owner of a newsgroup, without any proof. PTI supporters will also not trust the NAB inquiry into the Al-Qadir Trust case. Malik Riaz has been associated with the army since the mid-1990s when he started his first project with the Pakistan Navy.

More importantly, the Al-Qadir Trust case is just the beginning of the military’s plan to lock up Imran until he surrenders. The ongoing plunder and mayhem could also be used to launch allegations against PTI and force its leadership to cooperate. Intriguingly, all party leaders have been dead quiet. As one meme on the incident suggests, ‘the PTI leadership may be happier than the Sharif brother’ as this could be a chance for them to take control.


Also read: Pakistan has walked dangerously deep into Chinese grip. Wake up, West


The rift among GHQ ranks

While the above is a lighthearted expression of a conspiracy theory, a more serious one doing the rounds is that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Sahar Shamshad Mirza, may take over from General Asim Munir. Such an idea, of course, comes from pro-PTI supporters. But it also points toward an alleged divide inside the GHQ – between those who accept Munir as the legitimate chief and those who don’t.

Sources I spoke to believe there is discomfort inside the army headquarters. They struggle to accept Munir as a rightful chief since he should have retired three days before getting selected for the current job and comes from the less coveted military training academy in Kakul. He was a graduate of the 17th short course from the Officer Training School, Mangla (OTS), which means he is not considered a blue-blooded army officer. What saves him from intrigue is that three key appointees, the Chief of General Staff, Corps Commander Multan and Corps Commander 10 Corps (reputed as coup-making corps), are his juniors from the same training school.

Such disagreement within the officer cadre is compounded with anger against him for supporting the Sharif and Zardari families, against whom the army undertook years of propaganda – to the point where millions believe in it to this day.  It is also worth pointing out that PTI supporters will likely remain unaffected by the Al-Qadir Trust case ruling because they have seen NAB being unable to prove corruption charges against Imran’s opponents. This is not because the agency can’t prove anything but because it has always been used as a tool to manipulate political opponents.

But referring to Imran’s support from within the army circles, I was scandalised to find that, among the protesters around GHQ yesterday, some were family members of serving officers of the colonel and brigadier ranks. “I spoke to my son and told him that I want to be the mother of an honourable soldier, not a dishonourable General,” one serving officer’s mother told me. She said her son spoke about discomfort within the officer cadre around him.

Clearly, the army chief, who was out in Oman when the operation to pick up Imran happened, needs time to settle the difference with his Generals. Journalist Wajahat S. Khan, known for his support for Khan, is already saying that given the anger against the army, the Generals have come together. The face of the action, the Punjab government, has called in the army to control the mayhem and crackdown against the PTI.  The strike indicates General Munir’s confidence. If his institutional strength maximises, it will mark the end of Imran’s power. What the General may not have time to calculate, though, is the medium to long-term impact it will have on Pakistan’s politics. As Pushtun activist Usama Khilji tweeted, by arresting Imran “the establishment has helped the PTI with its election campaign.”

Silencing Imran will not help the government’s case. It will, in fact, have an opposite and unfortunate effect – the erosion of faith in politics and the State. Holding fair elections in the future seems unlikely, as does the fact that the embittered PTI support base will repose faith in the political system. I do not support Imran for the political culture of hatred he has inculcated among his supporters, but I can also never support how he is being hauled out of the electoral and political race.

Ayesha Siddiqa is Senior Fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College, London. She is the author of Military Inc. She tweets @iamthedrifter. Views are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)

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