There are a few big issues in the upcoming Gujarat election but the BJP does not need issues. It has an icon, a Gujarati PM that the state is proud of.
The ritual of elections in Gujarat begins an assembly line of elections for the next 18 months. There are a few big issues in Gujarat, but the BJP does not need issues. It has an icon, a Gujarati PM that the state is proud of. In a sense, he already sees it as a personal jaagir by dedicating the Narmada dam as a gift to the nation on his birthday.
Next to and parallel to the BJP juggernaut, exists a range of sideshows, each interesting, but none potent enough to upset the BJP applecart. The first is Shankersinh Vaghela’s attempt to create a third force after he was miffed that he was not being projected as a potential CM by the Congress party. With his feudal ego and the certainty of his feudal turf in northern Gujarat, Vaghela will have his electoral highs, play a few spoiler roles but he knows his days as a big time politician are over. He virtually ruined Ahmed Patel’s chances until the stalwart scrambled home with a JD(U) vote.
The second episode of the sideshow that promises to be interesting is AAP’s attempt to grow in Gujarat. AAP is a party, which after its initial arrogance, is now grappling with a sense of limits, a realism both in terms of finance and its ability to capture votes. But its victory in the Bawana polls has renewed its confidence, a sense that miracles were possible in Gujarat. There is little sense of rhetoric now but a greater emphasis on tactics and method. AAP claims to have learnt considerably from its Punjab campaign both in efficiently marshalling resources and timing its campaigns. In Punjab, it began too early frittering away its vote bank of enthusiasm while Amarinder Singh waited until the last few months to strike.
If it finds a few good candidates, focuses on harnessing local enthusiasm and booth management, it might make modest dents in Gujarat. It might have a few backers in an age where Modi acts as if India does not need options beyond the BJP.
Probably the biggest local disappointment is Hardik Patel. He has been in the news sporadically, but cutting less ice electorally. He has been embroiled in many court cases and senses that the BJP can make life unpleasant. Patel is more an agitator than an electoral vote catcher. His attempts at creating a grand alternative of Patels has not quite worked. He can dent vote banks but is not quite able to sustain one himself. He appears like a vernacular show when Gujarat is proud of the national role of Narendra Bhai. The Patidar is realistic enough to realise that while Hardik can harass and agitate, it is only Modi who can deliver policy.
Congress can create a mild flurry of excitement in the Gujarat polls, especially if it is accompanied with Rahul Gandhi’s elevation as president of his party. The Congress is planning a major social media campaign. There is a potential minefield here because social media has been a site of embarrassments for the BJP with people satirising its claim of development posting pictures of garbage dumps, potholes. Yet, despite the rumour of anti-incumbency, there seems little hope for the Congress. As a party, it needs to show itself to be more determined about agriculture or education. Despite the hype, the opposition politics in the state is a collection of sideshows which just does not add up.
The BJP looks smug, confident, already appropriating the symbol of the Narmada dam for itself, and rewarded a range of bureaucrats who acted as willing assistants to its rise of power. The appointment of R.K. Raghavan of the SIT report as Ambassador to Cyprus makes one wonder how blatant a party can be and how shameless a recipient can be. The BJP has always rewarded loyalists meticulously. Amit Shah’s attempts to defend Maya Kodnani adds the right touch to this soufflé. It makes one wonder if there is any place in this regime for the Narmada dam oustee and the riot victim.
As the middle class election campaign seeks to consolidate a future with a lesser sensitivity for marginals and dissenters, interests, rather than values, seem to dominate the upcoming election.
Shiv Visvanathan is Professor at Jindal Global Law School and Director at the Centre for the Study of Knowledge Systems, O.P Jindal Global University, Sonepat
AAP will have the cake and eat it too,as there is no opposition party worth the mame to defeat BJP.
A few seats for AAP is enough to lay a strong foundation for future elections in Gujarat.