Nobody should doubt Chandrababu Naidu’s determination. If anything, they should fear it

Naidu will prefer working with Modi to the opposition because he has the experience of dealing with—and of being duped by—Modi. This time, he has the antibodies.

Chandrababu Naidu greeted by supporters after his party TDP swept Andhra Pradesh | ANI

Some won. Some lost. Chandrababu Naidu alone triumphed yesterday. Twenty years after his defeat in Andhra Pradesh, he is exactly where he yearned all these years to be: not only in power in his state, but also in the position to decide who wields it in New Delhi. Out of office, he endured all the bruises he was accused of inflicting on others. He was betrayed by those he trusted, mocked and derided by milksops, harried and humiliated inside the assembly, abandoned by fortune and bullied to breaking point, and, at the end of it all, hauled away to jail. There was no respect for the man who had once been the toast of Davos—the man who commanded respect in Washington and made Atal Bihari Vajpayee dance to his demands.

“I was the original reformer,” he reminded me in 2019. Narendra Modi, the implication went, was a mimic. Our meeting was semi-social. I had just published a book, and he invited me, via a common friend, to his home to offer some avuncular advice. We met at a particularly difficult time for Naidu. He was worried that his Telugu Desam Party, reduced to 23 seats in the Andhra legislature, might disintegrate or be devoured by Modi. He was being assailed from all sides. In Andhra, Jagan Reddy was preparing to scrap Amaravati—the futuristic capital city conceived by Naidu for the truncated Telugu state—and sharpening the knife for his predecessor’s throat. In Telangana, K Chandrashekhar Rao treated Naidu as an infiltrator. In Delhi, Amit Shah and Modi appeared determined to destroy what was left of their erstwhile ally. Naidu was a bundle of nerves. “I have to hold the party together,” he said. His tall frame looked worryingly gaunt as he stepped away for a moment from our conversation. I wasn’t sure that he would ever regain what he had lost.

Modi’s fate in Naidu’s hands

Five years later, he is again king and kingmaker. The “Modi government” is history. And without the TDP, the National Democratic Alliance will in all likelihood implode. Modi’s fate is largely in Naidu’s hands. Yesterday’s elaborate address by the prime minister to his party was meant really for his coalition partners. Naidu, who in some ways still looks down on Modi, knows that the prime minister is unworthy of his support. He remembers Modi’s record of treachery, the broken promises of support for Andhra, and the gratuitous slights that ultimately prompted him to break from the prime minister. What Modi, steeped for so long in hubris, does not know is Naidu’s flair for vengeance.

Good luck to the Opposition bigwigs striving to lure Naidu away from the NDA with pledges and promises of a blank cheque. I hope they succeed. But what they don’t quite appreciate is how much he is relishing this moment. Modi, until yesterday the most powerful Indian leader in decades, is just where Naidu wants him: at his feet.

What will he do?

Naidu, who will be almost 80 at the next election, is a politician in search of a legacy. Hyderabad, which he modernised at the expense of everything around it, was snatched from him by a self-serving dynasty. Andhra, bereft of a megalopolis, is a land of opportunity. Naidu will seek to memorialise himself for the ages by reviving and raising Amaravati as the Telugu Singapore. Nobody should doubt Naidu’s determination. If anything, they should fear it. He will tear down everything that obstructs him, displace everyone who stands in his way.

Naidu will not only expect Modi to subsidise the project; he will also want the prime minister to grant, post-haste, special category status to Andhra, along with all the considerable concessions on taxes and duties to which the state will be entitled. Naidu will prefer Modi to the Opposition precisely because he has the experience of dealing with—and of being duped by—Modi. This time, he has the antibodies. Naidu will, in short, do his best to reproduce the arrangement of the early 2000s: he keeps the government afloat in Delhi, and the government in Delhi treats him as a special case.

Can Modi, who has never known what it means to compromise, abide such a settlement? Having perfected the craft of plundering MPs from other parties, Modi and his minions will probably attempt to ingest TDP lawmakers to enlarge the BJP’s numbers. What will complicate matters for Modi this time is Naidu’s spectacular return to power in Andhra. He looks the part of a conqueror. Modi, despite actually winning more seats than any other party, appears like a raddled loser. TDP MPs will not so readily abandon Naidu. The prime minister was addicted to portraying himself as a man of destiny. He is today a frightened mouse negotiating for life with the paws of a stern cat. Nothing is certain in life—but I suspect Naidu will spare him. He will extract all he can from him. And then, when there’s nothing left to take, he will discard him. Naidu is a veteran of this bloodsport. Modi will learn that he, for all his lucky successes, is a neophyte.

Kapil Komireddi is the author of “Malevolent Republic: A Short History of the New India”, which was recently published in a revised and expanded paperback edition. Follow him on Twitter and Telegram. Views are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)