The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s decision to snap ties with the National Democratic Alliance in Tamil Nadu is undoubtedly a setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party’s plan to secure a third term for Narendra Modi as prime minister. This unexpected development will trigger a shift in the state’s politics by allowing smaller parties in the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-led alliance to bargain for more seats with AIADMK – a prospect that is sure to entice the Congress too.
If this scenario unfolds, it could easily disrupt the DMK-Congress partnership in Tamil Nadu, in turn rattling INDIA. The state’s politics is confused and in flux just 240 days before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which means the MK Stalin-led ruling dispensation will definitely benefit from it.
AIADMK has been a trusted and faithful ally of the BJP. Former party chief and Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa even supported the construction of Ram Temple in Ayodhya during her tenure. However, following in the footsteps of Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and Janata Dal-United (JDU), this like-minded party has exited the NDA fold too.
What caused this split?
Several reasons have been attributed to this breakdown of ties between AIADMK and BJP. According to sources who spoke to me, one of them was the AIADMK’s attempt to replace or rein in BJP’s Tamil Nadu unit chief K Annamalai. The latter refused, triggering the party’s decision to cut ties for good.
AIADMK had raised this demand during a recent meeting between five of its members and BJP president JP Nadda. But Nadda declined this request, prompting AIADMK’s exit. The party’s decision, thus, was driven not by seat-sharing issues but by the perceived ‘insult’ of its founders by Annamalai.
“AIADMK is breaking all ties with BJP and NDA from today. State leadership of BJP has been making unnecessary remarks about our former leaders for the past year,” AIADMK Deputy General Secretary KP Munusamy reportedly said while announcing the break-up, further corroborating the assertion above.
Annamalai is leading the successful En Mann, En Makkal (My Land, My People) yatra across Tamil Nadu and is trying to build a strong foundation for BJP in the state. “It is about bringing PM Modi back to power for a third straight term,” Annamalai told reporters before the yatra commenced from Rameswaram on 28 July. It will terminate in Chennai on 11 January 2024.
BJP leaders have been advised to remain tight-lipped on the matter, but some of them see it as a “silver lining” as the party will now get a chance to “find its own feet” in Tamil Nadu and tie up with smaller parties for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
BJP leaders in New Delhi also accused AIADMK of deliberately remaining silent on the Sanatana Dharma issue. According to BJP insiders, Shah had categorically instructed AIADMK general secretary and former Tamil Nadu CM Edappadi K. Palaniswamy to issue a press statement criticising Udhayanidhi Stalin’s remarks, but to no avail.
These sources also said that the decision to part ways could have been prompted by AIADMK’s desire to court minority votes in Tamil Nadu. However, they are “still hopeful” that AIADMK will re-think its decision and “stay in the alliance”.
A few BJP leaders in New Delhi are more than just hopeful about AIADMK’s return; they are confident it will return to the NDA fold. According to party sources, behind-the-scenes efforts are underway. A top party leader will land in Chennai soon to reopen negotiations. If BJP fails, its re-election plans for Modi will be severely affected. The party had resolved to focus more on South Indian states earlier this year, targeting more than 50 Lok Sabha seats from the region. BJP leaders do realise that they have reached their peak in states like Gujarat, Haryana and Rajasthan and are also apprehensive about losing more seats in Northeastern states, West Bengal and Bihar.
BJP must make significant gains in the South. But how will it compensate for these losses? The continuance of EPS as Tamil Nadu CM for four years was greatly supported by the Modi government. EPS secured AIADMK’s ‘two leaves’ symbol with indirect support from the BJP, overcoming legal obstacles posed by political arch-rival O Panneerselvam.
The political situation in Tamil Nadu is clearly not good for BJP. But looking at the developments, an age-old adage comes to mind: In politics, there is no permanent enemy.
The author tweets @RAJAGOPALAN1951. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)