How do Indians perceive key developments in the country over the last few years? The Lokniti-CSDS survey provides a useful lens to understand public sentiment on three critical dimensions — the economy, India’s image in the world, and the emerging challenges that the nation faces.
A mixed assessment
First: How do citizens view their own economic conditions over the past few years? Nearly 42 per cent of Indians feel that nothing has changed, while 22 per cent believe that conditions have deteriorated, and a little over one-third believe they have improved. Four years ago, a lesser proportion of respondents believed that their economic conditions had worsened. But compared to 2014, the assessment is still somewhat positive.
Economic issues continue to haunt the public. Three of every 10 respondents (29 per cent) believe that unemployment is the biggest challenge facing the country today, followed by poverty and price rise. A decade ago, price rise and inflation were at the top of people’s concerns, followed by corruption and scams. While the focus on price rise dipped in 2019, it has resurged once again now.
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Economic hardship
Six of every 10 respondents (60 per cent) believe that their household incomes are not sufficient to fulfil basic needs. This number has risen by 10 percentage points in the last four years, and it is apparent that economic hardships for households across the country have increased.
A linked development is the increasing assertion that development only tends to benefit the rich. While one-fourth of the respondents took that stand in 2019, more than one-third share the same opinion today. There is a sharp 10 percentage point dip in the number of those who believe that development has reaped benefits for all.
Global prestige
The second aspect is the public perception of India’s image in the world. A majority of the survey respondents have come up with a positive assertion on all the key indicators tapped on this issue. Close to two-thirds (63 per cent) believe that respect for India in other countries has increased; a little over half (54 per cent) believe that India has emerged as the Vishwaguru or world leader; close to 6 of every 10 (59 per cent) believe that India’s art and culture are now securing global recognition, and a little over a half think that India has become an attractive space for foreign companies.
There is, however, a caveat: The sharpest difference in responses is linked to the level of media exposure, followed by economic status — affluent and media-connected respondents are more likely to have a positive response to all the four questions. Moreover, there is only a marginal difference when place of residence is taken into account.
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Political use of investigating agencies
The public is divided on whether the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been misusing government agencies such as the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED). While 32 per cent believe that government agencies have been misused for political vendetta; 36 per cent believe that these agencies have worked within the confines of the law. Further, one-third did not respond to the question.
Welfare or ‘revadi’?
The populist schemes of free electricity and water are endorsed by a majority of the respondents as critical support needed by the poor. This trend is common among supporters of both the Congress and BJP. Only a marginally higher percentage of BJP supporters have reservations about the provision of free benefits. Interestingly, more of the rich advocate for welfarist policies.
Overall, there seems to be a clear pattern: There is economic distress but not as sharp as to make the government unpopular. At the same time, Modi’s image as someone who has brought respect and reputation to the country seems to have crystallised. In this matter, media exposure has played a major role in creating a positive response. The public mood is, thus, jointly shaped by the economy and media narrative. Which of these two dominates may decide the way the public swings in the near future.
Suhas Palshikar taught political science and is chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics. Sandeep Shastri is the director – Academics, NITTE Education Trust and National Coordinator, Lokniti. Sanjay Kumar is a professor and co-director Lokniti-CSDS. Vibha Attri is a research associate, Lokniti-CSDS. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)