It’s a terrible feeling to discover that your country is full of strangers. For some in India, the election of Narendra Modi in 2014, with a majority that India hadn’t seen in three decades, was that moment. Everyone knew there was discontent with the status quo; everyone knew that Modi was doing well, better than anyone had expected before he became a candidate – but to win an unprecedented majority? It meant that far more Indians than imaginable were willing to trust a leader with so disquieting a record.
Since then, I have seen that feeling of shock replicated elsewhere, and often. In Britain, for example, in the summer of 2016, as the country voted narrowly for Brexit. And again, in the US that fall.
After a while, you refuse to believe what happened. It was special circumstances that led to this shock result, you’re told. Voters who should have known better were carried away with anger and enthusiasm, responding to a government floundering in corruption, or to years of feeling left out and ignored by mainstream parties, or to economic policies that didn’t sufficiently take their interests into account. Voters are sensible, people say; when they see how their choices aren’t working out as hoped, they will come around. Of course they will, that’s how democracy works.
In India, Narendra Modi’s premiership was certainly not working out as hoped. The jobs he had promised to create weren’t there. Rural distress was spreading, as the government’s tight control on food prices kept farmers from making the sort of profits they wanted. The prime minister took controversial, indefensible decisions like the overnight ban on 86% of India’s cash. And he lost several crucial midterm provincial elections, some by unusually large margins. Yes, he remained popular, but politics seemed to be snapping back to normal.
Also read: Modi’s second term needs to be bolder than his first
And then came 23 May, 2019, when — instead of voting out Modi, or chastening him by reducing his majority, Indian voters instead rewarded him with an even greater majority. His party’s share of the vote jumped by more than 6%. Instead of seeing his term as a disappointment, his supporters retained their allegiance — and gained converts. Losing once to the populist might be bad, but you just have to look at India to realize twice is infinitely worse.
Liberals in India weren’t alone in being shocked in the past fortnight. A few days before Modi’s victory was announced, Australia’s incumbent right-wing government – after a shambolic few years – were returned to office, defying opinion polls and surprising pretty much everybody. A predicted swing against them didn’t materialize to any substantive degree, and voters in places like Queensland opted in larger than expected numbers for extremist parties – a choice that ultimately benefited the incumbents.
These are warning signs for the rest of the world. Do you believe that rational Brexit voters looking at the mess of the past two years will obviously change their minds? Think again. They may not see it with the eyes you do. The Brexit Party just won the biggest share of the UK vote in the European Parliament elections. Do you think the Democratic “blue wave” in the midterms of 2018 means Trump’s chances of winning re-election are low? Don’t bet on it.
If voters can make the wrong choice once, they can do it again – even in the face of objective evidence. Especially if their first choice has been misdiagnosed. If you imagine it was a protest, or a response to specific economic circumstances, then listen more closely to what your fellow citizens are saying – even if makes you uncomfortable, because you don’t want to believe that’s what they want and believe.
In India, too many liberals came to the conclusion that Modi won in 2014 just because he promised jobs, or because the previous government had been a mess. It made his victory more palatable, more normal. It made our country more recognizable. But it was wrong. In fact, Modi promised pride. As his followers saw it, Modi promised to restore the greatness that more than a thousand years of foreign rule had sapped from India, culminating in the government of the Italian-born Sonia Gandhi.
He implied that the state would cease decades-old preferential treatment to Indians from historically disadvantaged or minority communities. His opponents sought to combat him on his economic platform, or on corruption allegations – but his voters chose not to listen to their arguments. Those issues simply weren’t what appealed to them in the first place. They liked his vision of the country, and so were resolutely deaf to arguments about anything else.
It turns out that, if you want to fight nationalist-populists like Modi, you can’t treat them like regular politicians. Nor can you assume away unpalatable truths about your fellow voters. You can’t change their votes by appealing to their pocketbooks, or by big economic promises, or by excoriating a populist government’s record, because they will always trust such leaders more than they will you. You can’t change how they vote until you change their minds about what sort of country they want to live in. Only then can you defeat Modi – or Trump, or Brexit, or Le Pen.
Mihir Sharma is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He was a columnist for the Indian Express and the Business Standard, and he is the author of “Restart: The Last Chance for the Indian Economy.”
Also read: Modi’s sweeping win tilts India’s political economy against much-needed reforms
Such level of arrogance and they have the temerity to call themselves ‘ liberals’ ? Had the electorate given a thumping majority to caste based political parties or incompetent nincompoops ,author would have hailed them as smart and all knowing .These self declared ‘librals’ are far from being librals.they stay in ivory towers and ride high horses looking at poor voters with disdain.
What right you have to call the madate of largest democracy in the world as wrong?
This itself proves your biased and skeptical mindset. Such narrow mindedness doesnt suit for a journalist. Have you adopted this profession only to earn bread and butter? No dignity? Such kind of misleading and false journalism is worst than even prostitution.
Whole world is looking upto Modi as a reformer and you are calling him populist.
No one dared to take such bold steps before such as demonetization, GST, surgical strikes without caring about his vote bank. Till now govts. had refrained from taking bold and strong decisions to save their vote banks and appease minorities. But Modi didnt do that. He has performed surgery, which may be painful but beneficial. An Intelligent will understand this but one who is blinded by selfishness and quick gains can not have patience to see the change.
Why the world is admiring modi so much? 7 countries have honored him with their highest civilian awards. Has he influenced them with the so called populism? Or paid them for that?
Indians are wise to give him this biggest mandate in the biggest democracy of the world. Because they can see his earnest desire to serve selflessly without any discrimination, thus muslims are also supporting him and showing the vote bank parties way to their home.
Sun doesnt need an evidence of its presence. The bright sunshine is the proof. Similarly Modi doesnt need anybodys certificate to proove sincerity of his purpose, and his work. The mandate of 23rd inspite of bitter opposition of 23 parties with all kind of false allegations and abuses hurled at him is the proof that the Sun Has Risen On The Horizon, but bats and owls are unable too see it, that their fault!
Oh! Please stop it. Armchair journalist and their blah blah blah’s. The man who had a pulse on the ground won! Understand.
The Elections just got over. The new government is not even sworn in. The press has started to write articles about Modi could be defeated and why the people should reconsider – not the press. Hardly surprising the general press is fast losing its credibility very quickly.
Modiphobia
Liberals still don’t get it. They think the masses are wrong and ignorant and they alone are right and wise – clearly an elitist mentality. Fact is, the masses know exactly what they want and sorry, they don’t need advice from liberals. If liberals continue to berate the masses without understanding their psychology, 2024 also goes to Modi.
Such is the level of liberals that all these intellectuals write articles commenting on liberals failing to understand that they themselves are those liberals .Here this guy is saying the voters are wrong twice and what he thinks what he believes is correct.Typical liberal
One more so called liberal who think what he thinks is right for the world and the voters around the world who voted the opposite of what he thinks is all fools and are making great mistake in voting the way they are voting. You are entitled to your opinion and they are entitled to theirs. To call them fools and tell them they are not knowing what they are doing is a bit too much and giving too much importance to oneself.
One will not try to analyse 23rd May by studying the psyche of Indians. Maybe not all of them share what I felt when two young Muslim men were beaten up by vigilantes and one was then forced to beat his wife, chant Jai Shri Ram. If Lord Ram exists, he would be sickened by such behaviour. 2. Where one may not be able to agree with the column is the assertion that this new coarse normal is all that Indians – or people in other parts of the world – will accept as a substitute for all the good, development oriented work they expect from the government. When there is so much poverty and deprivation – even if we forget the aspiration that a nation with so many young people is supposed to be brimful of – no one will accept non performance for long. I am surprised we are even having this conversation.