On the face of it, Nitish Kumar’s latest somersault on Sunday might look like another stroke of ‘genius’ from him. The Bihar chief minister was under siege. There were no takers for his prime ministerial ambition in INDIA, the Opposition coalition.
The alliance was falling apart anyway. His friend-cum-adversary-cum-friend former Chief Minister Lalu Yadav wouldn’t have waited for long after the Lok Sabha elections to demand promotion for his son, Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav. Janata Dal (United) MPs, MLAs, and even the rank and file were getting restless and insecure. It was only a matter of time before they started defecting to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), especially as the Ram Lalla’s consecration ceremony in Ayodhya temple was resonating strongly across Bihar.
So, what were Kumar’s options? In December 2022, he declared that Tejashwi Yadav would lead the Mahagathbandhan’s (Grand Alliance) campaign in 2025, virtually declaring his deputy the successor.
Few people believed him then. If there was one thing nobody could ever deny about Kumar was his love for power. About six weeks after his cryptic remark about Tejashwi Yadav, the Bihar CM made an emphatic statement- “Mar jaanaa kabool hai, unke saath jaanaa mujhe kabhi kabool nahin hai (I prefer dying to going with the BJP).”
Everybody took his statement with a pinch of salt, again. That was 30 January 2023, a year before Kumar took oath as the CM of Bihar for the ninth time—a global record of sorts. If Kumar doesn’t have permanent enemies in politics, he has never had permanent friends either. Look at the list of one-time friends and confidantes who were dumped by him— Lalu Yadav, George Fernandes, Sharad Yadav, RCP Singh, Prashant Kishor, et al.
To cut the long story short, Kumar’s latest U-turn came as no surprise. Though a seasoned weathervane, he had misread the wind in 2014 and decided to go alone in the Lok Sabha elections. He ended up with two seats for the JD(U) and a badly bruised nose. He won’t miss the direction of the wind in 2024. But that’s quintessential Kumar.
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BJP’s insecurity?
What might have come as a surprise to many was the BJP’s willingness to break bread with him again. Last April, Union Home Minister Amit Shah declared that the doors of the BJP “have been shut forever for Nitish Kumar”.
So, why would the BJP open the doors when it is on the crest of a wave? In the 2020 Assembly elections, the party got Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Hanuman’, Chirag Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), to deliver a body blow to Kumar. For the first time, the BJP emerged as the big brother in the alliance, winning 74 seats as opposed to the JD(U)’s 43. Paswan dented the JD(U)’s prospects on 25 seats.
But for him, Kumar would still have been in the driving seat in the alliance. He took his revenge by inducting the lone LJP MLA to join the JD(U), splitting the LJP, and securing a Union Cabinet berth for Paswan’s estranged uncle, Pashupati Kumar Paras. Kumar was obviously miffed about how the BJP tried to finish him off politically.
That was one of the sore points that led him to break ties with the BJP in August 2022 and form the government with Lalu Yadav and cohorts.
Much water has flown in the Ganga River since then. The BJP has got its 2014 alliance back. Upendra Kushwaha of the erstwhile Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) quit the JD(U), formed his party, and is now negotiating his return to the NDA. The BJP has almost secured the support of both factions of the LJP—led by the uncle and the nephew—despite ongoing disputes between the two over seats. The BJP-LJP-RLSP alliance won 31 out of the 40 seats in 2014 with around 39 per cent vote share. Jitan Ram Majhi of the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) is already a BJP ally, and Mukesh Sahani of the Vikassheel Insaan Party is eager to join the NDA.
With the INDIA bloc unravelling and Brand Modi getting even stronger—especially after the Ayodhya temple ceremony—there was a general perception that the BJP would go for the kill this time. Enough of hanging on to Kumar’s coattails in Bihar when everything was working so perfectly for the ruling party at the Centre.
So, why would the BJP give a new lease of life to Kumar when it should have been trying to finish him? Kumar has transformed from a ‘vikas purush’ (development man) of yore into someone who seems to be convinced of the electoral inutility of development today. With Kumar becoming increasingly unpopular, it was time for the BJP to go for the jugular in Bihar. Instead, it has chosen to enable Kumar to leverage PM Modi’s popularity for his own political survival at Bihar’s cost.
The argument being proffered is that the NDA had won 39 out of the 40 seats in Bihar in 2019, and it could lose many seats if Kumar were to be in the Opposition alliance. That’s what drove Shah to eat his words and open the doors for him. One may argue that the BJP goes out of the way for every additional seat, and here we are talking about its stakes in a crucial state. True, but the ‘Modi wave’, amplified by the Ayodhya event was also a golden opportunity for the BJP to end its dependence on Kumar. So, why did the BJP develop cold feet? Was it feeling ‘insecure’? Not really. It’s on the contrary.
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Mission: Finish Nitish Kumar
Last year, BJP national president JP Nadda created a flutter in Bihar’s political circles by his remark that regional parties were destined to be ‘wiped out’.
For sure, he was reflecting Modi-Shah’s views. Nadda doesn’t do or say anything unless he knows what his bosses have in their mind. So how does it square with the BJP’s latest decision to provide ‘cushion’ to Kumar? The fact is that there is no contradiction. Look at the two deputy chief ministers the BJP has appointed in Bihar—Samrat Choudhary and Vijay Sinha. Both are the fiercest critics of Kumar. In July last year, in Bihar’s Legislative Council, when Kumar snapped at Choudhary and asked why he wore a turban, the latter responded, “This is my resolve to remove you from the post of chief minister.”
As Kumar’s newly appointed deputy, he was still wearing the turban on Sunday. His resolve continues. As for another deputy, Vijay Sinha, he used to engage in running duels with Kumar when he was the Speaker of the Bihar Assembly during the NDA government.
The BJP high command’s decision to appoint these two as Kumar’s deputies gives an inkling of what the party leadership has in mind—to make the Bihar CM’s life difficult by keeping him on a short leash. The BJP needs him in the Lok Sabha elections to use whatever electoral utility he has. Then the party can go back to completing its unfinished agenda from the 2020 assembly election: Finish Nitish Kumar. Once Modi is in office for the third term, the BJP can afford to pull the rug from under Kumar’s feet and try to realise the BJP’s actual potential in Bihar.
And when the BJP starts turning the heat on Kumar, the JD(U)’s MPs and MLAs, like politicians turning away from the setting sun, would see a better future with the BJP—or even Tejashwi Yadav. Lalu Yadav, Rahul Gandhi, or even Dipankar Bhattacharya of the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) won’t be very generous either, given how Kumar has taken them for a ride repeatedly.
Essentially, Kumar will become eminently dispensable for the BJP after the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP would be looking to have its own chief minister in Bihar while the Modi wave continues. It won’t wait for the next Assembly election in October-November 2025. That’s why some of Kumar’s erstwhile mahagathbandhan colleagues think that he may want to have simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls to retain his bargaining power in both. The BJP is unlikely to oblige though. He may want to continue as the CM with the BJP’s support but that won’t suit the BJP’s expansionist agenda, especially in Bihar.
The sooner Kumar loses electoral relevance, the stronger the BJP emerges in Bihar. The newly formed NDA government is unlikely to last through 2024 unless Kumar agrees to hand over the baton to the BJP and makes a graceful exit. And the exit clause is unlikely to have a Union Cabinet berth for Kumar. He is the last person Modi would like to have in his Cabinet meeting—not for the long term, for sure. So, what’s the probable scenario? Nitish Kumar has to vacate the CM’s chair, willingly or under duress. In the event of snap polls after the Lok Sabha elections, Kumar may at best hope for a fractured verdict to retain his chair.
The BJP would rather have the President’s Rule and slug it out with the Opposition while Kumar stays isolated in the corner, hoping for an opportunity for another somersault. Post-Lok Sabha elections, Kumar’s situation would be akin to what actor Ajit said, “Raabert…liquid oxygen mein daal do. Liquid ise jeene nahin dega, aur oxygen ise marne nahin dega.” (Robert, put him in liquid oxygen. Liquid won’t let him live and oxygen won’t let him die.)
In 2010, Kumar cancelled a dinner he had hosted for BJP leaders because he was upset about his pictures with Modi—who was Gujarat’s chief minister at the time—in a newspaper advertisement.
After the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish Kumar would be desperate for such advertisements but the BJP may no longer be inclined to oblige. That will be Modi’s response to what happened 14 years back. The PM is not known to forgive and forget any slight. Sunday’s swearing-in ceremony in Bihar was just the penultimate scene of a political tragic play, where the protagonist struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more, as Shakespeare would say.
DK Singh is Political Editor at ThePrint. Views are personal.