For Swararaj Shrikant Thackeray, more popularly known as Raj Thackeray, being in news for all the wrong reasons is easier than making all the right noises.
Little wonder, his meeting with former Congress president Sonia Gandhi Monday made it to the top headlines, albeit only for a day.
One of the most important fallouts of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections has been the total marginalisation of some political leaders. Young leaders like Akhilesh Yadav in the north, T.T.V. Dhinakaran in the south and Raj Thackeray in the west have been swept away by the second Modi wave. Of course, at least half-a-dozen dynastic protégés in the Congress are staring at an uncertain future too.
From Modi fan to political wilderness
But just five years ago, it was a different story. In 2014, the dyed-in-the-wool politician – many see him as the poster boy of strident Hindutva – was an ardent fan of then-prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.
Also read: Now, Raj Thackeray plans anti-BJP front with help from Kejriwal, Mamata, Stalin, Akhilesh
He went all the way to Gujarat in 2011 as Modi’s guest and returned a supporter. On his part, Modi praised him for choosing Gujarat for a study tour instead of Switzerland. Raj Thackeray even campaigned for ‘Narendra bhai as PM’ ahead of the 2012 Lok Sabha elections.
The script, however, changed with the 2014 Maharashtra assembly election results in October.
After the BJP’s sweeping win in the Lok Sabha elections, the party performed exceedingly well in the Maharashtra polls too. The BJP and its long-time ally Shiv Sena contested the election separately, with the BJP emerging as the biggest gainer.
While the BJP won 122 of the 260 seats it contested, the Shiv Sena got just 63 seats despite contesting on 282 seats. Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) was the biggest loser – it contested on 219 seats and won a single seat. This dashed Thackeray’s any hope of playing a kingmaker in Maharashtra politics.
The BJP emerged as the single-largest party in the 288-member assembly. It no longer needed the support of the Shiv Sena to form the government as Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) offered outside support. Yet, it chose to go with the Shiv Sena.
By doing so, the BJP effectively distanced Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena from Raj Thackeray’s MNS. A Shiv Sena-MNS camaraderie could have meant trouble for the BJP in coming municipal elections. By ensuring that the two parties don’t come together, the BJP managed to displace the NCP, the Congress and, to some extent, even the Shiv Sena in the subsequent civic polls in the state.
Raj Thackeray and his party were pushed towards political wilderness.
2019 and beyond
Raj Thackeray now desperately needed a political godfather to mentor him. NCP chief and a veteran in Maharashtra politics Sharad Pawar reportedly came to his rescue.
Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Thackeray adopted a different strategy. His party decided not to contest the election but campaign against Narendra Modi.
Also read: Raj Thackeray is the biggest loser in Maharashtra and he didn’t even contest elections
Raj Thackeray drew exceptionally large crowds at public meetings before the 2019 elections. His resemblance to uncle Balasaheb Thackeray in looks, mannerism and oratory made him an instant hit.
But in a democracy, political fortunes are decided by the ballot, not speeches.
If the 2014 assembly election was a defeat, the 2019 Lok Sabha election was a wash-out for Raj Thackeray. He was neither able to dent the prospects of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance nor was he successful in adding to the tally of Sharad Pawar’s NCP.
Post-23 May, all parties, except the BJP, seem to be in a state of flux. Not just the Congress, the NCP, too, is facing an existential crisis. There is speculation that several NCP leaders are looking for greener pastures.
Raj Thackeray has limited choices. He can swallow his ego and join the BJP-Shiv Sena combine, which is extremely unlikely. Or, he can continue to work with the NCP, but given the Lok Sabha debacle, he may want to look beyond the party. The next best option is to align with the Congress.
A new alliance?
Just a few months ago, the Congress did not want to touch the MNS with a barge pole. It had vehemently ruled out inducting Raj Thackeray’s MNS into the Congress-NCP alliance in Maharashtra.
But the Sonia Gandhi-Raj Thackeray meet could change that.
Is it possible that the NCP veteran could have written a new script for Raj Thackeray to save his own party from ignominy if not to help the cub politician under his care?
A larger political formulation (NCP+Congress+MNS) is perhaps the only way the non-BJP parties can hope to challenge the Fadnavis government and prevent a total defeat in the state elections due later this year.
Also read: How Raj Thackeray went from being freedom’s foe to liberal poster boy
The next few weeks can give us a clearer picture of whether the already-sinking Congress is serious about accommodating the MNS in its scheme of things.
But for that to happen, Raj Thackeray will have to jettison his parochial political stand on non-Marathis and his radical Hindutva rhetoric, which he claims to have inherited from his uncle.
But the leopard can’t change its spots, or can it?
The author is former editor of ‘Organiser’. Views are personal.