Modi image, Syrian Christian base can help BJP in Kerala. But leadership crisis a spoilsport

To make the most of his popularity, Modi is coming to Kochi to partake in ‘Yuvam 2023’—a youth conference that will attract many party sympathisers.

PM Narendra Modi visited Sacred Heart Cathedral Catholic Church in Delhi | ANI

It was a scandal that changed the course of Kerala politics six decades ago. PT Chacko – then reigning home minister and de facto leader of Syrian Christians of central Travancore — was forced to resign after he was found travelling with a female colleague to Peechi. Only later, it emerged that he was implicated – which, coupled with his death some months later, led to the fall of the R Sankar-led Congress government in 1964.

Chacko’s following wasn’t limited to the Catholics. The Chacko loyalists who walked out of Congress received a shot in the arm when they got the backing of Nair Service Society (NSS) founder Mannathu Padmanabhan. Thus ‘Kerala Congress’ was born in 1964, backed predominantly by the Nairs in south Kerala and Syrian Christians in central Kerala. This eventually reduced Congress from 63 seats to 9 in the 1967 assembly elections.

It took the Congress more than a decade to rebound from that setback, co-opting both the Kerala Congress and the NSS, eventually earning the trust of these two dominant communities. This formidable caste calculus, along with the Muslims of Malabar, would form the backbone of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in the next four decades.

Karunakaran’s exit

In the mid-2000s, former Kerala chief minister K Karunakaran – one of the architects of that caste coalition – quit Congress, taking with him a slice of the Nair community. The Nair vote bank that deserted Congress eventually took a liking to Narendra Modi post-2014.

Many of them continued to vote for Congress, with the primary goal of defeating the Communist Party of India (Marxist), as voting for the Bharatiya Janata Party would be a vote wasted in the state’s bipolar politics.

The switching of a section of the Nairs should have rung alarm bells within the UDF, with the community sharing many common interests with the Syrian Christians, often acting as a joint pressure group. However, Congress took it easy, assuming it to be a temporary phase.

Shifting sands

With the Nair bloc ready to switch, BJP’s attention was now focused on Syrian Christians. Coincidentally, the party’s wooing of the Syro-Malabar Church was aided by a wave of Islamophobia permeating the community. Some 22 Christian converts who allegedly joined the Islamic State (IS) in 2016 triggered it, and the Hadiya case exacerbated the situation.

The Syro-Malabar Church Synod in early 2020 came out with a statement – ‘Love Jihad is a reality’ – making common cause with the BJP for the first time. It was, however, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) that effectively utilised Islamophobia to its advantage in the 2021 assembly elections that followed.

By cleverly directing the Islamophobia spreading through the Church to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) within UDF, the CPI-M won hitherto unwinnable seats in central Travancore. Only a division in the Syro-Malabar Church saved Congress the blushes or its final tally would have been close to what it was in 1967.

Unlike in the past, BJP’s emergence as a third pole means that the UDF, which lost a sizeable chunk of its Nair votes, is now looking at the imminent loss of a section of its Christian vote bank— which it once considered a fixed deposit.

Demography, land and ‘love-jihad’

Kerala’s unique demography lends a certain weightage to the three communities in the three regions of the state. And central Kerala (or what was central Travancore in the pre-Independence era) is considered the state’s Christian-dominated belt, especially when it comes to the agricultural economy, land holdings and trade.

All this began to change with the gradual decline in fertility rate among the Syrian Christian community, and the emergence of a new class of cash-rich Muslims flush with remittances from the Gulf. The loss of land and getting supplanted in trade by Muslims in their own fief did not go down well with the community.

Thus, a combination of factors made central Kerala the most fertile ground for the spread of Islamophobia. Moreover, Kerala has always been a deeply patriarchal society. Come to think of it, even the ‘love-jihad’ angle is also a product of a patriarchal mindset, as it is invoked only in the case of women and not the other way round.

Caste plays a part

Patriarchy aside, yet another reason for the Syrian Christians to make a common cause with BJP is caste, as they are believed to be descendants of Brahmins baptised by Saint Thomas, a disciple of Jesus Christ. Saint Thomas is supposed to have ventured into India through the Cranganore Port to propagate Christianity even before it made its way into Europe.

This caste consciousness also came with a sense of ‘Savarna’ identity, making Syrian Christians more amenable to BJP’s hierarchical worldview. This consciousness is palpable across the Malankara, Jacobite, Orthodox and Mar Thoma factions, apart from the dominant Syro-Malabar Church.

A significant difference between the Nairs and the Syrian Christians in the BJP’s crosshairs is the approach of its leadership. The Nair community making its switch to BJP notwithstanding, the NSS led by G Sukumaran Nair continues to back Congress. On the other hand, it is the clergy that is seen to be driving BJP’s agenda within the Syrian Christian community.

There was covert signalling even earlier, but none as blatant as Archbishop Joseph Pamplany’s open offer to trade votes of settler farmers in his archdiocese in lieu of raising the support prices of natural rubber.

Kerala BJP’s challenge

For now, BJP’s lack of credible leadership in Kerala is a major impediment. State vice-president AN Radhakrishnan’s recent pledge to undertake the Malayattoor pilgrimage in solidarity with Christians on Good Friday ended up as a public relations disaster, as he quit within 300 metres of the trek uphill. He did resume the arduous journey on 16 April though, after receiving widespread social media backlash for his ‘cheap publicity stunt’ last time.

The unavailability of Congress turncoats has also hobbled BJP’s push in Kerala. It is not as if prominent leaders haven’t deserted Congress in recent times, but almost all of them joined either CPI-M or the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), a Left ally in Kerala.

BJP’s latest catch is Anil Antony, son of Congress veteran AK Antony, whose Christian identity was quickly invoked. However, Anil is a small fry whose induction only serves a symbolic purpose.

Easter diplomacy

An interview of Cardinal George Alencherry became a topic of drawing-room conversations this Easter for its pronounced BJP slant. This is exactly what the doctor ordered for the ruling party, whose cadres visited Christian homes on Easter Sunday as part of its outreach.

BJP’s synchronised Easter diplomacy was led by the Prime Minister himself with his visit to New Delhi’s iconic Sacred Heart Cathedral, indicating that BJP reckons Christian votes are ripe for the plucking in Kerala.

To make the most of his popularity among Kerala’s youth and the urban middle class, Modi is coming to Kochi to partake in ‘Yuvam 2023’— a youth conference organised by the Vibrant Youth for Modifying Kerala – with a targeted mobilisation of one lakh young people from across Kerala on 24 April. Anil Antony and a host of eminent individuals sympathetic to BJP’s cause are also expected to attend.

The author is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. He tweets @AnandKochukudy. Views are personal.

(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)