A billboard announcing the ‘Leader of Opposition’s Camp Office’ was hard to miss while driving on National Highway 66 near Haripad. Typically, the offices of Kerala state legislators are referred to as ‘MLA offices’ in their respective constituencies. But all the signboards and banners advertising Congress MLA Ramesh Chennithala’s office had different signage.
Had the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) won the 2021 Kerala legislative assembly elections, Chennithala would have been the natural choice for CM. Such was his confidence that even before the results were announced, he had already deliberated on an auspicious day to take oath. Instead, ‘Captain’ Pinarayi Vijayan went on to win a historic second term.
Apart from the four-decade-old revolving door politics prevailing in Kerala, winning 19 out of the 20 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections possibly lulled Chennithala and Congress into taking things for granted. The organisational machinery of the Congress had become so dysfunctional that even constituencies where it had an upper hand over the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) were squandered.
And Chennithala himself has to take some blame for it –especially because he presided over the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) from 2005-14, followed by a stint as Home Minister under former CM Oommen Chandy, and was LOP 2016-21. The disappointing results of the 2021 polls prompted the Congress high command to replace both then KPCC Chief Mullappally Ramachandran and LOP Chennithala with K. Sudhakaran and VD Satheesan, respectively.
So, almost two years into Vijayan’s second term, what are the chances of the Congress/UDF in Kerala if assembly elections were held today?
Most likely, the CPI-M-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) would romp home backed by its robust organisational machinery, despite the palpable public fury against Vijayan’s regime. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s presence as a third alternative cutting into its votes notwithstanding, a major reason for the Congress losing people’s trust is the absence of strong leadership.
A floundering Sudhakaran
The failure of Sudhakaran, once hailed as the party’s antidote to Vijayan, is obvious. In fact, Sudhakaran himself lobbied hard for the post, unleashing campaigns on social media and outside. Posters with slogans such as “Sudhakarane Kondu varoo, Congressine Rakshikkoo (Bring on Sudhakaran, save the Congress)” had appeared across the state then. However, despite the initial promise, Sudhakaran’s has been a case of missed opportunities.
Sudhakaran’s assumption saw a string of desertions from the Congress leadership ranks to the CPI-M, in retaliation and resentment to his disciplinarian approach. But that did not deter him from cracking the whip as he deemed Congress had become far too laidback under the leadership of Chandy and Chennithala. Sudhakaran’s argument had some merit, but he could not command the discipline and loyalty of leaders across the state, unlike his predecessors.
Sudhakaran failed to mobilise the Congress toward meaningful causes and has been missing in action from the state capital of Thiruvananthapuram for long. Indira Bhavan – the KPCC headquarter – has never been as deserted as it is now.
Sudhakaran’s health issues have also been a matter of much speculation lately. His propensity to shoot his mouth off at public meetings was always an issue, but things have taken such a drastic turn that he cannot address press conferences anymore without being prompted by fellow leaders to avoid gaffes.
It seems Sudhakaran is no longer fit for the position. Seeing this, one is simply reminded of his own prophecy – which he made when he was pipped to the KPCC chief’s chair by Ramachandran in 2018 – that a leader needs to assume such positions while still in their prime to do justice to it.
Tall promises, such as converting the rank and file of the Congress into a semi-cadre outfit, establishing Congress Unit Committees (CUC) by dividing booth committees and reorganisation of district, block and mandalam committees, have not seen any forward movement.
Sudhakaran’s coordination with Satheesan has also been poor, occasionally leading to the two issuing contradictory statements on the same issue, thereby leaving the party rank and file dumbfounded.
Satheesan’s limitations
Satheesan has done a much better job as LOP, cornering the government and CM Vijayan on multiple occasions on the floor of the house. And this is despite being heavily outnumbered by the treasury benches. Satheesan’s forte has always been making acerbic speeches, and he has led the legislators by example in the assembly.
So far, his only self-goal was trying to ‘discipline’ Shashi Tharoor with his “inflated balloon” remark, which boomeranged spectacularly. Impressive performance in the assembly and even outside notwithstanding, Satheesan has been hobbled by the dysfunctional party machinery not taking up issues raised in the assembly with the people and converting them into support for the party.
Satheesan also lacks a mass base within the party and outside, which impedes his efforts to emerge as a CM face. The leader also has to constantly look over his shoulder to keep pace with K.C. Venugopal’s machinations in Kerala.
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K.C. Venugopal’s games
Venugopal and Satheesan hail from the same stock – the Congress ‘I’ faction once led by K. Karunakaran and later inherited by Chennithala. Despite being in vastly different positions today, both Venugopal and Satheesan realise that their ambitions would pit them against each other sooner than later. For all his clout in Delhi, Venugopal’s eyes are firmly set on the vacuum in Kerala. Through my interactions with Chandy and Chennithala faction members, I got the sense that he will replace Sudhakaran as KPCC chief after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and shift base to the capital. In fact, Venugopal makes it a point to visit Kerala on and off. He continues to maintain a house at Pazhaveedu in his erstwhile constituency of Alappuzha – replete with staff and a patronage network – despite his family staying back in Kannur. The spadework carried out in Ambalappuzha indicates that he would be contesting assembly elections from the seat in 2026, by which time his Rajya Sabha term is also due to lapse.
Venugopal has already laid the groundwork for that by getting people close to him appointed as District Congress Committee (DCC) presidents across the state. What Venugopal, too, would have to contend with is his lack of mass base.
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Tharoor as a dark horse
Today, no sign boards or name boards lead to Chennithala’s MLA office in Haripad, but he is still known to harbour ambitions of becoming CM. Almost everyone knows he missed the bus in 2021 – except Chennithala himself.
There is a dark horse in Tharoor who could get the UDF back in power, provided he is projected as the party’s CM face for 2026. Tharoor should get the backing of the Chandy-led ‘A’ (named after A.K. Antony) faction, but it is possible that the likes of Venugopal, Satheesan and Chennithala would gang up to deny him the opportunity, lest he pips them to the post they pine after. The Chandy and Chennithala factions have been considerably weakened today.
In short, Congress is in no shape to fight the CPI-M today. The party might fare better than the Left in the Lok Sabha elections next year, with the Congress always having an edge over the CPI-M there. But it has to settle the leadership question, among other things, to emerge as a viable opposition in Kerala.
The author is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. He tweets @AnandKochukudy. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)