One of the main highlights of the Congress’ 2024 Lok Sabha election manifesto is the promise of conducting a caste census in India if the party comes to power. Another is the promise of removing the 50 per cent ceiling on Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes reservation.
On the surface, this looks like a game-changer. The combined population of SC, ST, OBC can be presumed to be anywhere near 80 to 85 per cent, and with such a significant promise, these voters should, at least theoretically, vote for the Congress.
However, politics is not only about mathematics. It’s definitely not a zero-sum game. In this article, I will analyse the political behaviour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress vis-à-vis the caste census and explore why, over the past decade, the BJP has shown a united face on this issue despite its flip-flops, while the Congress has always been a divided house on the matter.
A strategic decision
After many electoral defeats and realising that the BJP’s social coalition is hard to crack, the Congress started the OBC and subaltern outreach. This strategic shift is more about the party’s current needs rather than its conviction.
In its Raipur Conclave in 2023, the Congress started its SC/ST/OBC outreach. Electing Mallikarjun Kharge as the party president and giving half of the organisational positions to individuals from marginalised groups was a natural corollary to the Congress’ new philosophy. However, this strategic move failed to bring electoral dividends in the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.
Earlier, I had written that the Congress’s half-hearted approach could be disastrous for the caste census if the party fails to win the Assembly elections. That is exactly what happened. Significantly, Congress’ electoral loss eased the pressure on the Narendra Modi government to conduct the caste census.
Now, just before the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress leaders are again expressing their discomfort with the idea of a nationwide caste census. Congress Working Committee (CWC) member Anand Sharma publicly opposed caste census, while Gaurav Vallabh cited it as one of the reasons behind his decision to leave the party and join the BJP. Congress leader and Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar also presented a dissenting view, although he later issued a clarification. Interestingly, the BJP criticised the Congress by saying that Jawaharlal Nehru had stopped caste census.
This internal division within the Congress starkly contrasts with the BJP’s unified stance.
Also read: BJP isn’t rupturing Brahminical social order. It’s replacing it with Savarkarite Hindutva
BJP’s united front
At present, the BJP’s national leadership and the central government are non-committal to the idea of a caste census. It’s dilly-dallying on the issue and giving mixed signals. In 2018, the government announced it will collect data on the OBCs for the 2021 census. In 2021, the entire operation was postponed. Later, the Centre said that caste data won’t be collected in the census. Making a backflip in 2023, United Home Minister Amit Shah claimed that the BJP never opposed caste census.
To avoid getting entangled in this issue, the BJP government is postponing the decennial census, which should have been completed by 28 February 2021. It is worth noting that the BJP in Bihar supported Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s move to conduct the caste survey.
What’s more interesting is that even in this dilly-dallying, the entire BJP appears to be on the same page. I have not heard any dissenting voice from any BJP leader, whether it comes to the party’s support or opposition to the caste census.
In 2010-11, BJP leaders, one after another, demanded a caste census during debates in the Lok Sabha. Sushma Swaraj clarified the party’s position. At the time, the BJP alleged that the Congress government was dithering and obstructing the caste census.
Even then, no opposition was recorded within the BJP. It was no mean feat for the party leadership to present a united front on such a divisive issue. The BJP and its earlier avatar, the Jana Sangh, were known to be a Bania-Brahmin party. However, when the BJP fielded OBC leaders like Gopinath Munde and Hukumdev Narayan Yadav to bat for the caste census during the Lok Sabha debate, the entire party supported the move, or at least remained silent.
Whereas the Congress, which was in power in 2010, thwarted a consensus in Parliament and chose not to include caste data in the 2011 census. Instead, it opted to incorporate caste in the Below Poverty Line (BPL) counting, which was a controversial decision. Finally, that exercise yielded no data.
Also read: Hindutva’s most formidable opponent — caste census. Why didn’t Congress govts push for it?
Divergent values
The difference between the BJP and the Congress’ stance on caste census is due to their divergent core values.
The Congress, since its inception, is a party of Hindu elites. Its leadership remained with the Brahmin, Bania, Kayasthas, and other dominant castes. After initially opposing the concept of separate electorate for the SCs, the party tried to co-opt them by forming an alliance that included Muslims and SCs, led by the members of the Brahmin community.
Despite the social changes and political upheavals, the core leadership of the Congress remained upper and dominant caste-centric. This group still has its sway over the party, even though the upper-caste voters have mostly abandoned it in favour of the BJP. Hence, the Congress is reluctant to support the caste census or demands for removing the 50 per cent cap on SC, ST and OBC quota.
On the other hand, the BJP, despite being led mostly by the Hindu upper-caste, wants to forge a ‘Virat Hindu identity’, encompassing everyone who shows allegiance to indigenous religions. With its origin in the thesis of VD Savarkar, the idea of Virat Hindu identity has its own pitfall—it impedes the BJP’s aspiration to be a party inclusive of all religions and puts it in confrontation with the Muslims and, to some extent, the Christians. Thus, in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal, the party’s vote count hypothetically starts with 20 per cent or less.
As a consequence, the BJP cannot antagonise the Hindu SC, ST, OBCs beyond a point. The party making an OBC the Prime Minister or appointing the likes of Kalyan Singh, Uma Bharti, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje, Mohan Yadav, Raghubar Das and others as chief ministers are all part of the Virat Hindu project.
In my assessment, when it comes to the crunch, the BJP will not oppose a caste census. While the party may never pitch the idea on its own, it will lend its support whenever it perceives serious political consequential demand from the OBCs, as witnessed in 2010-2011. That’s also why the party is postponing the census.
It is easier for the BJP to go for a caste census than the Congress. Strange as it may sound, but politics is just like that.
Dilip Mandal is the former managing editor of India Today Hindi Magazine, and has authored books on media and sociology. He tweets @Profdilipmandal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Ratan Priya)