The Congress or the BJP wouldn’t want a Scheduled Caste leader like Mayawati as the PM.
Veteran politician Sharad Pawar created a political storm last week by saying that people didn’t have doubts about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s intentions in the controversial Rafale deal.
There was an immediate rebellion in his Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Tariq Anwar, one of the three founding members of the 19-year-old party, quit, accusing Pawar of providing “sanjeevani” to the Prime Minister. So did Maharashtra NCP general secretary Munaf Hakim.
Pawar has since clarified that he didn’t give any clean chit to Modi and that he wants disclosure of the price of the fighter jets as also a joint parliamentary committee (JPC) probe. There is no end to whispers in the political circles though.
That’s probably because the two leaders are known to enjoy a great rapport despite their ideological differences. In the post-Godhra era when Modi-baiting was supposed to be a proof of one’s secular credentials, Pawar’s was a measured voice. “Any CM” would have to take “moral responsibility” for riots in his state, he said in response to persistent questioning by the media about Modi. “I have no hesitation in accepting that Pawar held my hand and taught me to walk in my early days in Gujarat,” Modi once said. In February 2015, Modi visited Baramati and had lunch at Pawar’s house – the only opposition leader to have this privilege.
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Across the political divide, Pawar has been hosting lunches and dinners for Rahul Gandhi, Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and other opposition leaders too. The NCP chief is the putative principal adviser and interlocutor in the opposition camp, who has been devising strategies to put up a joint fight against the BJP at the states’ level in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
That’s why Pawar’s latest remark on people’s faith in Modi’s intentions has generated so much interest. And that’s also why I would wager on Pawar, 77, if someone were to ask me to name the Prime Minister of a government not headed by a BJP or a Congress leader.
Mayawati may be eyeing a tally of 40 or so to outplay Mamata Banerjee and emerge as the third largest party in the next Lok Sabha, but I would still bet on Pawar even though the NCP may get to contest just about half that number in an alliance with the Congress in Maharashtra. That is if there is a fractured verdict in 2019, which may necessitate a 1989-91 National Front government model (then supported by the BJP and the Left from outside) or a 1996-98 United Front model (supported by the Congress from outside).
So, here is my pick for 2019: Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi or Sharad Pawar. The former union minister and Maharashtra chief minister stands over the rest of the herd of non-BJP, non-Congress prime ministerial aspirants.
Think of a scenario in which the BJP or the Congress has the numbers to play a kingmaker. Given that each would do anything possible to keep the other out of power, both would be keen on propping up anyone as the Prime Minister for a period needed for them to recoup and regroup. Most of the other parties—including those swearing by their secular credentials today – had broken bread with the BJP or the Congress at some point in time and wouldn’t mind taking support from one or the other as long as there is a pie of power to be shared.
Now think of why Mayawati wouldn’t stand a chance in this scenario. Would the Congress or the BJP help a Scheduled Caste leader become the Prime Minister of India and let go of 16.6 per cent of the vote bank permanently? The answer is ‘no’. Would they support Mamata? Given its forays into West Bengal, the BJP will certainly not. The Congress would also have serious reservations as it is already losing its turf fast to the Trinamool Congress. And, the bigger question is, wouldn’t Rahul Gandhi’s heartache while dumping his soulmates from the Left for her?
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Naveen Patnaik is seen by many as a possible contender for the top job. He has maintained good equations with Modi and his government despite the BJP’s expansionist plans in his state. And he has also kept the so-called secular brigade in good humour. But the Odisha chief minister has been too aloof from Delhi politics to suddenly return and outclass others in the race. Besides, even if he nurses such ambitions – he hasn’t given any inkling so far – the Congress and the BJP may not be impressed.
Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar lost his chance the day he insulted Narendra Modi by cancelling his dinner invitation to then-Gujarat chief minister eight years ago. Modi is known to have a sharp memory. And Lalu Yadav would never let him enter the other camp.
The list of possible contenders for the top job in 2019 is longer. But all of them seem to be confronted with similar challenges. Say, for instance, N. Chandrababu Naidu. He was part of the NDA until recently and has been having a dalliance with the anti-Modi brigade, of late. He is also known to be an astute politician and a good administrator. But Modi won’t forgive him for trying to rock his boat; and, the BJP has drawn up ambitious plans in Andhra Pradesh. On the other side, the Congress still considers itself the main challenger to Naidu’s TDP in Andhra Pradesh.
Now look at Pawar’s advantage. He is liked by both Modi and Rahul. He might have walked out of the Congress on Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin issue, but she or Rahul doesn’t seem to hold any grudge against him any longer. His elevation to the top job doesn’t do much harm to the BJP’s or the Congress’ prospects in Maharashtra. Pawar will turn 78 this December and he doesn’t pose any threat to anyone. Mayawati, Mamata, Patnaik, Naidu and all other contenders – not to forget Arvind Kejriwal – would have conflicting ambitions and interests. That makes Pawar an ideal compromise candidate. And, he is resourceful enough to command the support of the parliamentarians.
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Of course, it’s all hypothetical. And Pawar has often ruled out such possibilities in the past. Many would argue there is no vacancy. But Pawar has a different take on it in his autobiography, On My Terms: From the Grassroots to the Corridors of Power, released by Modi in December 2015. “Modi’s style of functioning has caused many worries… Political power has a tendency to concentrate in a few hands and once that happens, it does not take much time to become corrupt. Nor does it last long, as world history has shown us time and again.”