Pakistan reopened its airspace Tuesday morning, nearly five months after the Balakot air strikes, allowing Indian and other airlines to resume commercial flights to this part of the world. Two days ago, at the Kartarpur Sahib talks in Wagah, New Delhi’s suggestion to allow 5,000 Sikh pilgrims every day to visit the gurudwara where Guru Nanak breathed his last, was also accepted by Islamabad.
So, is peace in danger of breaking out between India and Pakistan?
‘Yes,’ say inveterate hopefuls on both sides, the ones who usually seek to convert an empty glass into half full. Grim realists, on the other hand, point out that with Balakot air strikes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set the bar firmly in place. Any terror attack will not be countenanced; it will be met by a counter attack.
Modi’s doctrine, where it concerns Pakistan, can best be described as “an eye for an eye” – even if it makes half the sub-continent blind. Another element of this doctrine is a variation of the Reagan motto: “Trust a little, and take your time to verify.”
This is apparent in the Kartarpur Sahib gurudwara talks, which Delhi had been vetoing for the past few months because of concerns that the Pakistani deep state would infiltrate Indian Sikh pilgrims with Khalistani separatists. The presence of pro-Khalistani leader Gopal Singh Chawla in the Pakistan Sikh Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (PSGPC), the panel tasked with coordinating with pilgrims once the corridor opens, was especially a red flag.
Also read: Beyond cold silences between Modi & Imran Khan in Bishkek, India needs to make nice with US
Then, on the eve of Sunday talks, the Imran Khan government removed Chawla from the committee, along with four other pro-Khalistani leaders – Tara Singh, Bisan Singh, Kuljit Singh, and Maninder Singh.
Islamabad followed through by agreeing to New Delhi’s demand that it build a bridge over river Ravi, which meanders between Kartarpur Sahib gurudwara (in Pakistan) and Dera Baba Nanak (in India).
By now, it was clear that a highly synchronised quid pro quo was unfolding. Within 48 hours of the Kartarpur Sahib talks, Pakistan issued a notification announcing the opening of its airspace.
Certainly, it’s not as if India’s actions are taking place in a vacuum. The China-Pakistan axis is getting stronger just as Pakistan’s efforts towards renewing its relations with the US too are getting firmed up – Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan will be on a three-day visit to the US beginning 21 July.
What is interesting is that Khan will be accompanied by his army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa. In recent weeks, Islamabad has been praised by the Big Three – the US, China and Russia – for its “important role in facilitating peace in Afghanistan.”
Also read: Sandwiched between Xi, Putin, Imran in Bishkek, Modi learnt an important political lesson
India may very well be staring at 18 years of hard-earned effort going down the drain in Afghanistan. Since 9/11, New Delhi has been consistently supportive of the Afghan government, come hell or high water. But the Afghans, undercut by the Russians, the Chinese and the Americans, seem to have no option but to cut a deal with the Pakistani establishment.
The Great Game in this part of the world isn’t over yet, but its immediate fortunes seem well and truly foretold.
India needs to worry if America’s Donald Trump begins to cosy up to Pakistan. Less than a year ago, Trump was spitting hellfire and fury at the Pakistani deep state for being the benefactors of the Taliban and other terror groups. That hasn’t changed, but Trump also realises that he cannot withdraw his beloved troops from Afghanistan if Pakistan isn’t on board.
India’s story could get worse. Its economy is shrinking and the trade deficit with the US and China isn’t helping. That is why New Delhi is mulling over the possibility of withdrawing additional tariffs imposed on 28 American products in retaliation against the US withdrawal of preferential trade status for India – right after the Modi government came to power.
India desperately needs a few friends in the world today. Trump’s daily dose of scorn must be tolerated and his stupidities must be ignored. That’s why the forthcoming talks between commerce minister Piyush Goyal and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer must succeed. There is no one else in the world today that can take on the Chinese – even Trump has gone back on his own tough talk on China by partially lifting restrictions on Huawei technologies.
Also read: Imran Khan’s US visit is for home audience. Bajwa’s Army will do the real talking
Certainly, Modi holds the aces on Pakistan. But the neighbouring country is already too much of a small fry to waste much time on. Foreign minister S. Jaishankar knows that China is the greater worry.
If the big picture demands that New Delhi allow a few confidence-building measures with Islamabad so that it can score some political brownie points – access for Sikh pilgrims to visit the holy shrine where Guru Nanak spent the last 18 years of his life can let BJP alliance partner Shiromani Akali Dal take full credit for – well, why not?