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With Trump cosying up to Pakistan, India has reason to feel like it needs a new friend

Modi holds the aces on Pakistan, but it’s a small fry to waste much time on. Ask foreign minister Jaishankar, who knows China is the bigger worry.

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Pakistan reopened its airspace Tuesday morning, nearly five months after the Balakot air strikes, allowing Indian and other airlines to resume commercial flights to this part of the world. Two days ago, at the Kartarpur Sahib talks in Wagah, New Delhi’s suggestion to allow 5,000 Sikh pilgrims every day to visit the gurudwara where Guru Nanak breathed his last, was also accepted by Islamabad.

So, is peace in danger of breaking out between India and Pakistan?

‘Yes,’ say inveterate hopefuls on both sides, the ones who usually seek to convert an empty glass into half full. Grim realists, on the other hand, point out that with Balakot air strikes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set the bar firmly in place. Any terror attack will not be countenanced; it will be met by a counter attack.

Modi’s doctrine, where it concerns Pakistan, can best be described as “an eye for an eye” – even if it makes half the sub-continent blind. Another element of this doctrine is a variation of the Reagan motto: “Trust a little, and take your time to verify.”

This is apparent in the Kartarpur Sahib gurudwara talks, which Delhi had been vetoing for the past few months because of concerns that the Pakistani deep state would infiltrate Indian Sikh pilgrims with Khalistani separatists. The presence of pro-Khalistani leader Gopal Singh Chawla in the Pakistan Sikh Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee (PSGPC), the panel tasked with coordinating with pilgrims once the corridor opens, was especially a red flag.


Also read: Beyond cold silences between Modi & Imran Khan in Bishkek, India needs to make nice with US


Then, on the eve of Sunday talks, the Imran Khan government removed Chawla from the committee, along with four other pro-Khalistani leaders – Tara Singh, Bisan Singh, Kuljit Singh, and Maninder Singh.

Islamabad followed through by agreeing to New Delhi’s demand that it build a bridge over river Ravi, which meanders between Kartarpur Sahib gurudwara (in Pakistan) and Dera Baba Nanak (in India).

By now, it was clear that a highly synchronised quid pro quo was unfolding. Within 48 hours of the Kartarpur Sahib talks, Pakistan issued a notification announcing the opening of its airspace.

Certainly, it’s not as if India’s actions are taking place in a vacuum. The China-Pakistan axis is getting stronger just as Pakistan’s efforts towards renewing its relations with the US too are getting firmed up – Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan will be on a three-day visit to the US beginning 21 July.

What is interesting is that Khan will be accompanied by his army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa. In recent weeks, Islamabad has been praised by the Big Three – the US, China and Russia – for its “important role in facilitating peace in Afghanistan.”


Also read: Sandwiched between Xi, Putin, Imran in Bishkek, Modi learnt an important political lesson


India may very well be staring at 18 years of hard-earned effort going down the drain in Afghanistan. Since 9/11, New Delhi has been consistently supportive of the Afghan government, come hell or high water. But the Afghans, undercut by the Russians, the Chinese and the Americans, seem to have no option but to cut a deal with the Pakistani establishment.

The Great Game in this part of the world isn’t over yet, but its immediate fortunes seem well and truly foretold.

India needs to worry if America’s Donald Trump begins to cosy up to Pakistan. Less than a year ago, Trump was spitting hellfire and fury at the Pakistani deep state for being the benefactors of the Taliban and other terror groups. That hasn’t changed, but Trump also realises that he cannot withdraw his beloved troops from Afghanistan if Pakistan isn’t on board.

India’s story could get worse. Its economy is shrinking and the trade deficit with the US and China isn’t helping. That is why New Delhi is mulling over the possibility of withdrawing additional tariffs imposed on 28 American products in retaliation against the US withdrawal of preferential trade status for India – right after the Modi government came to power.

India desperately needs a few friends in the world today. Trump’s daily dose of scorn must be tolerated and his stupidities must be ignored. That’s why the forthcoming talks between commerce minister Piyush Goyal and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer must succeed. There is no one else in the world today that can take on the Chinese – even Trump has gone back on his own tough talk on China by partially lifting restrictions on Huawei technologies.


Also read: Imran Khan’s US visit is for home audience. Bajwa’s Army will do the real talking


Certainly, Modi holds the aces on Pakistan. But the neighbouring country is already too much of a small fry to waste much time on. Foreign minister S. Jaishankar knows that China is the greater worry.

If the big picture demands that New Delhi allow a few confidence-building measures with Islamabad so that it can score some political brownie points – access for Sikh pilgrims to visit the holy shrine where Guru Nanak spent the last 18 years of his life can let BJP alliance partner Shiromani Akali Dal take full credit for – well, why not?

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15 COMMENTS

  1. India doesn’t have a trade deficit with the U. S. . Please fact check!
    The article lacked depth.

    Also, I don’t think Indian deep-state sees the US as a long term friend but more as a counter balance against a rising China. But bonhomie with the US has pushed Russia away from India.
    Right now, in my opinion we are in a phase where lines are been drawn and only time will tell who allies with whom in the greater game. Players being – USA, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Israel and at a later date Iran might join the game via backdoor.

    Israel and USA have always been allied. But even when India and US were not cosy, India still had a covert kinship with Israel. The “de-hyphenation” of Israel and Palestine has made India – Israel relations more overt. If all is good between India and US then all is great between India and Israel. But if India’s and US’s interests collide then India -Israel relationship becomes more situational.

    The US undermined Turkey’s interests in the Syria situation giving Russia the opportunity to make a dent in NATO and in my opinion Russia is playing the Turkey sub -game to perfection.
    India and US cosied as “natural allies” against China which made Russia make overtures towards Pakistan while Pakistan and China went ahead to flaunt their matching tattoos.

    Everyone is miffed over US backtracking from JCPOA except Israel. While the JCPOA was a multilateral agreement, the US withdrawal has been unilateral holding international diplomacy to ransom and behaving like a pigeon on a chess board because US and it’s allies couldn’t have their way in the middle East theater.

    US deep state can’t reconcile with Russia.
    US can’t let China usurp it’s dominance.
    China and Pakistan won’t part ways because of India.
    Israel and current regime in Iran (which US and Israel are vying to overthrow) will not see eye to eye.

    A lot will depend on how China and Russia play each other and when does India pitch a tent and where.
    If Russia and China can reach an understanding then US hegemony in Eurasia ends even if India is aligned with the US.
    Trump has already vilified NATO, estranged Turkey and put Ukraine out to dry over Crimea.
    EU’s pacifism is good for trade but with a weakend NATO, EU-scepticism on the rise and a toothless and friendless UK “brexiting” how would the core of EU – France and Germany , deal with an aggressive Russia?

    Some times playing both the sides seems to be profitable, at least in the short run but it won’t be so for India. That’s the problem of being a counterbalance. Interesting times these! The next US election will give more clarity.
    Worst case scenario for India, militarily, would be if Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey and Iran find enough reasons to present a common front against the US, India, Israel and relevant parts of the EU. Improbable, yes!

  2. Honestly…Ms malhotra i think..does not understand anything about geo political and strategic nuances …most of her articles are a little childish…and immature..the print is doing itself a disservice by publishing such articles.
    Counter viewpoints are always essential..but Ms malhotra’s articles are very hollow…and most of the time they mirror her own personal viewpoint…rather than connecting the dots and seeing the big picture…enabling the reader to get a balanced narrative…the situation in AFG is changed today than what it used to be 4 years back…
    1) no country is so well “entrenched” and embedded in AFG today …than india is and the taliban also knows that…whatever settlement happens will happen within the constitutional framework of AFG…
    china and russia both dont want a hardline taliban to be a major player in AFG..as they have their own bordering regions with muslim unrest.even PAK does not want that as it itself is troubled ..what with the FETA rejions simmering with PTM movement …the reduced percentage of the TTP and other factions which can always “rise” again.
    The US not having “BOOTS” on AFG soil does “not mean” that US is not going to be a “player” in the so called “great game” …make no mistake… AFG runs on US money …the US is not going to leave AFG …they have invested too much into it with so little in return( as the PM had said to trump)…
    If any country that has got itself into a corner …then it is PAK(many read it wrong that pak has the advantage)…. as they have to give trump a good qualitative exit solution which he can and would like to”seemingly” take credit for.(before the US elections).and at the same time balance this narrative against china and russia…who have their own prioritiesand endgame’s …and at the same time should be equitable to the taliban and the AFG GOVT…if a “nice pretty solution”(in trumps words) is worked out then it is a win win for everybody ….each player taking credit …if it does not then pak alone will be left hanging on the wire….as it knows that the cards are almost over..that it used to hold….INDIA has done well to stay on the periphery of this…
    On PAK ..the PM has “singed” his fingers…after his intial moves towards pak in his first term …he now knows exactly what the establishment(the MILBUS…the military business arm of the pak army which runs business’s worth billions of dollars) in pak stands for and how much and on what they can deliver…(u’ll know this if u read carefully to his speeches and interviews).
    china tries to use pak as a counter balance against india..but the current scenarios ve changed so much that it knows that it can do only so much …..at the cost of its own relationship with india.
    The FACT is china knows that it cannot become a global superpower (it aspires to be) without indias help…and same with india..as it needs china’s assistance in becoming economically stronger …and that is the bedrock of the wuhan and varanasi meet (sceduled in october).
    If there are any TWO friends in all of this ..then it is russia and india…whoever thinks otherwise…is bieng naive and foolish…
    Russia and china may be everything to each other today..but “friends” they are not..make no mistake on that…russia is and will be always mindful off a rising global power like china ….be it in its backyard(the CIS countries) or in supply of arms..where it it is mindfull of the reverse engg skills of the chinese…they also have disputes about their own territories .they may display gr8 bonhomie today.. but theirs is a strictly transactional relationship glued by a common adversary (the US).the warmth of ties between russia and india may not be “on display” ..but IT IS THERE…whether it was dokalam…veering china towards india for the big play( “RIC AXIS”).terrorism and intell sharing ..arms and supplies..support on global forums ..etc etc…
    As the saying goes
    PAK can never b indias friend..
    China is nobody’s friend..
    And the US is everybody’s frenemy..
    There are many other points and factors but this comments column is too small a space…
    I hope the print initiates some measures to ensure such immature half baked articles are not printed as it lowers their own standards in the eyes of readers.

  3. After the meltdown In Pakistan, some sickular journos and opinion makers, sympathetic to the Islamic Republic, have quietly shifted their narratives to sing praises of China. Yuan payments hold their value much better than those in the Pakistani Rupees.
    The modus operandi is simple. Portray India as a helpless babe in perpetual difficulties and troubles and suggest the list of concessions it must accede to in order to keep her head above water.
    Young and old in India are no longer buying this crap but old hags find it hard to change their ways.
    Jyoti M is going the same way as Burkha D.
    Good luck !

  4. The China Problem can be handled elegantly and effectively. India needs to adopt an aggressive covert posture of breaking up Pakistan. Two birds, one stone.

  5. She missed a very VITAL point that PAK needs to deliver on AFGHANISTAN to US ….. TRUMP needs a respectful withdrawal from AFG and if PAK does’nt deliver that than forget IMF loans and FATF would slit their throat by blacklisting them. PAK doesnt have many cards to play , their present focus is just on TALIBAN and AFG policy. NOW the only debate is how good is PAK in persuading TALIBAN, do they control the levers in TALIBAN and can they convince them to have dialogue with present US backed AFG govt? Well i dont think PAK has that much leverage on TALIBAN to force them to US demands. TALIBAN has control of 65% territory and they are adamant to have no negotiations with present AFG govt. PAK is suffering severely on economic parameters and IF the situation goes SOUTH ….. than ALLAH save PAK!

  6. Whatever happens Pakistani propagandists can solidly depend on Jyoti Malhotra to promote Pakistani propaganda in Indian media.

  7. Only Jyoti seems to understand what is she writing. the US, just as India, will bother about its own national interests first. What is unusual if it is now cozying up with Pak to ensure that it gets out of the quagmire of its own making in Afghanistan? India always had a limited role in Afghan in peace process. We have been lending strong developmental support to Afghan and not military. So there is nothing that India is losing in Afghanistan. What is the issue with Modi’s Pak policy? Kartarpur corridor is going fine. Pak has been given a reality check in Balakot. Terrorism is being pushed as a major issue by Modi in every fora. When did Modi ignore China, which in Jyoti’s thoughts, only Jayshankar is capable of handling? Wuhan would not have happened otherwise. It is clear that somehow the top Print Team has a total dislike of Modi and that has been converted into business opportunity by writing inane articles periodically.

  8. The article started with something and lost sheen along the way. Did India concede anything or did anything overnight happened between US and Pakistan? Knee jerk reaction uncalled for.

  9. Was writing “Modi’s doctrine, where it concerns Pakistan, can best be described as “an eye for an eye” – even if it makes half the sub-continent blind” line was at all needed in this article unless the author wants to show her dislike of Modi? Unlike Shekhar Gupta, Jyoti can’t swallow her fake pride and continue to aimlessly beat around the bush by coloring news with her own agenda.

  10. TERRORISM – this is the strategic bottom line, the red line and the line in the sand. As long as India’s security strategy is defined by this one loathed word, all bonhomie is acceptable. The US can pump billions into Pakistan, and so can China, as long as these are NOT used in covert warfare and instigating separatism. If Pakistan applies those billions to become a swanky Dubai, good for us.

    Pakistan is not just the small fry, it is also the bad boy that needs to be tamed by the West. However, there is no denying that it is an important player in ‘The Great Game”. India should take a step back, and fine-tune its strategy before stepping out to define its space. No point feeling jealous.

  11. Hard to make out the quid pro quo here. IT looks like Pak has made all the concessions like the Kartarpur bridge, the committee composition and opening airspace to India. But has India given any concessions to Pakistan ?

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