Read the tea leaves on Maldives—all isn’t well with Muizzu govt. A ‘what if’ moment is near

Maldives is abuzz these days with Chinese whispers-like rumours about the mood in Delhi. Is the Modi govt so furious that it may be cooking up a potion or two?

Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu | Reuters file photo

Will the 17 March parliamentary election in the Maldives, two days after the Ides of March, be a game-changer in South Asia’s smallest nation?

The first clue that all is not well with the ruling People’s National Congress (PNC), led by President Mohamed Muizzu, came when Adam Azim, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP)’s candidate won the election for Male mayor Saturday, defeating PNC candidate Azima Shakoor by more than 2,000 votes.

Considering Muizzu was the mayor of Male before he became President last September, defeating a divided MDP as well as The Democrats party—made up of MDP rebels, led by former president Mohamed Nasheed— is significant.

It implies that Muizzu and his PNC may be rapidly losing ground in an area they were until recently so confident about.

Now, Muizzu and his party colleagues have been in news since he returned from China a few days ago, his first state visit. Soon after his return, Muizzu told a press conference, “We may be small, but that doesn’t give you the licence to bully us.” He went on to add that his predecessor Ibrahim Solih’s MDP government had sought permission from a foreign country “to get up from one chair and sit on another chair”.

It didn’t need a rocket scientist to explain that Muizzu was targeting Solih’s special relationship with India.

Crossing the line

On 14 January, Abdulla Nazim Ibrahim, the public policy secretary in the President’s Office, announced that the Muizzu government had told Indian officials that it must withdraw its troops from the island nation by 15 March—the Ides of March.

India has, so far, not said one word publicly on the brouhaha that caught the relationship in a tsunami about a fortnight ago, when Indian social media warriors and several TV news presenters trashed the Maldives, its people, and its leaders after three Maldivian ministers made disparaging remarks against Prime Minister Narendra Modi online.

One thing has led to another. It’s hard to believe that the vulgar comments by Indians on social media and anchors on news channels have not been egged on by powerful influencers inside the country. Certainly, they have crossed a line by insulting a foreign nation that is both tiny and hugely dependent on India.

Small wonder that Muizzu has flaunted his visit to China, which, he announced, has promised $130 million to develop his country.

But if you’ve been reading the tea leaves on the Maldives or watching the direction in which the wind turns, just like Mary Poppins, you will notice that other developments are already on the horizon.

One salvo after another

The first salvo was fired by breakaway MDP leader and former president Nasheed, who condemned the “appalling language” used against Modi by the three junior ministers of the ruling party. He also pointed out that India is “instrumental” to the Maldives’ security and asked Muizzu to reassure New Delhi that the statements did not reflect government policy. Nasheed followed up by congratulating Azim, his former MDP compatriot, for winning Male.

Within days, the MDP had seized another opportunity to attack Muizzu. They roundly blamed him for the unwholesome remarks made by former BJP minister Subramanian Swamy against the Maldives on X, implying that if Muizzu had managed the relationship with India better, all this needn’t have come to pass.

As for Swamy, he was unleashing one rude cannon after another. “Will Modi with mud on Bharat Mata’s face flung by namak haram Maldives, tuck his tail or like Rajiv Gandhi send the India’s Army, Airforce and Navy & replace Muizzu?” he asked.

Replace Muizzu? Horror of horrors.

Still, the Maldives is abuzz these days with Chinese whispers-like rumours about the mood in Delhi. Everyone in Male knows that Swamy has no love lost for Modi and vice-versa, but that he remains close to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), or at least part of its leadership.

What if, what if

Could it be possible that Swamy was ringing the death knell of the Muizzu government? Is it possible that the Modi government is so furious with Muizzu — not just for insulting the PM but also for publicly demanding the withdrawal of troops — that it may be cooking up a potion or two in the placid blue-green waters that surround the Maldives’ islands and atolls?

Is that why the Maldives parliamentary election has suddenly caught the eye of the region, which is treating it as a litmus test of the Muizzu government?

What if, what if, what if. What if the MDP wins the parliamentary election and cuts Muizzu’s party down to size? What if Solih decides to quit while he’s ahead and Nasheed returns to the MDP fold? What if Nasheed and Muizzu, friends in 2023, fall out in 2024?

The fact of the matter, which bears repeating today, is that if Nasheed hadn’t split the MDP on the eve of the Maldivian election in August 2022, created The Democrats, and subsequently divided the MDP vote, Muizzu would never be President today.

Certainly, both domestic politics as well as foreign policy cannot be built on hope nor shaped by daydreams. Equally, half-truths and hearsay cannot change the course of things. But as islanders both in the Maldives and Lakshadweep know, the direction of the wind doesn’t take long to change—it almost never announces what’s on the cards and the faraway horizon only sometimes carries telltale signs.

Once in a while, though, it tells you to look out for, even to beware, the Ides of March.

Jyoti Malhotra is founder-editor of Awaaz South Asia web platform. She tweets @jomalhotra. Views are personal.

(Edited by Humra Laeeq)