The Almond Alliance of California is upset that India has increased tariffs on its produce as a retaliation against US tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium. Congressman Josh Harder has written to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to take up the matter with New Delhi when he arrives here tonight for a three-day visit.
Then there’s the other Congressman, Eliot L. Engel, chairman of House Committee on Foreign Affairs, who has also written to Pompeo, telling him to sort things out on the India-US front. There is a growing perception that the US is trying to coerce India rather than negotiate with it, Engel said.
The two Congressmen have hit the nail on the head in terms of spelling out the ramifications of a slide in the India-US relationship.
There are California almonds to consider, no doubt, which earn the US $650 million annually.
And then, there is the larger, very important strategic relationship with the US to consider. With China on one side and Pakistan on the other and Russia also reportedly cosying up to Pakistan, India needs powerful friends to enable it to become a regional power.
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That’s why Mike Pompeo’s visit to Delhi – en route to the G-20 meeting in Osaka, which will also be attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi – is so important.
There are enough irritants on the cards. India is insistent, so far, on going ahead with the S-400 air defence deal with Russia. There is the Iran oil problem. There is the tension around India’s draft e-commerce policy, which major players like Amazon and Chinese companies like Shein could be forced to follow. The RBI’s decision to unilaterally implement data localisation norms – since S. Gurumurthy of the Swadesh Jagran Manch (SJM) joined the RBI as a non-official director in 2018, its policies have considerably hardened – has led to the piquant situation of the US threatening to retaliate by cutting 10-15 per cent of H1B visas for India.
Although the last move has been denied, make no mistake that Damocles’ sword hangs over the Modi government. Pompeo’s visit to Delhi is important because it is a precursor to the Modi-Trump meeting in Osaka later this week.
There are enough sensible arguments against data localisation, the most effective being that in a globalised economy leveraged by the internet, it is India that benefits. It is high time the SJM gets over its fear of the 21st-century version of the East India Company threatening to swallow up ‘sone ki chidiya’ Mother India.
This fear of the foreigner is belied every other month by Prime Minister Modi’s successful visits abroad. Buoyed by the tough negotiating skills of the foreign office, the PM has successfully held his own, from Trump to Imran Khan.
In fact, India has always opened its doors and windows, as Mahatma Gandhi famously said, to all kinds of influences from all over the world. India is the only country in the world that has an ocean named after it – it came after centuries of trading with the East and the West and not because Indians decided to stay at home fearing the unknown from across the seven seas.
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Trump being Trump is determined to take a transactional view of things. He doesn’t know any better. And since he can be assuaged with a few billion dollars, Delhi, it seems, has now decided to give him exactly that by promising to buy $10 billion worth of defence goods from the US.
Delhi needs the US and nobody knows that better than External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, who has dealt with a variety of US administrations since he was a mid-ranking diplomat. Jaishankar, who joined the BJP Monday, also understands the value of getting the job done, like Deng Xiaoping, who famously said he didn’t care about the colour of the cat as long as it caught mice.
Certainly, this is Jaishankar’s toughest hour: how to turn Trump around and deliver him to Modi, so that when they meet in Osaka, they envelop each other in a bear hug that will resound across the world.
Question is, what is the win-win compromise between India and the US that will allow both sides to claim victory? India needs the Americans too much and cannot afford to walk away – remember, it was the US which brokered the return of Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman after he was captured by the Pakistanis on 27 February, and is keeping Pakistan on the grey FATF list.
Perhaps, India may blink on the e-commerce policy – Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has had three meetings last week with various industry stakeholders. Perhaps, Modi will have to tell the SJM and the RSS to go slow on data localisation; in Osaka, standing next to his good friend Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Modi cannot afford to talk about data nationalism.
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That’s why Pompeo’s India visit is important. The deal must be brokered now, so that Modi and Trump and Abe can announce their bonhomie to the world in Osaka. If they meet behind closed doors with not even a photo-op to their credit, like Modi and Imran Khan did in Bishkek, then that’s a signal there’s something ‘black in the lentils’.
Modi must get a deal with the Americans now, so he can hold his own when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Varanasi in October. Modi knows the Chinese only respect strength. With the world on his side, Modi can afford to smile sweetly at Xi in Varanasi.
A world that is not, would be too terrible a possibility to even contemplate.
This are problems with Trump world. It will pass. US needs India as much as India needs USA. So don’t worry they will resolve the issues. Remember US economy a d its status as a world power depends upon how fast China grows economically and militarily. USA wants to contain China and India is its solution.
With President Trump, a firm handshake would work better. A warm bear hug for President Putin.