China’s much-speculated rapprochement with the Afghan Taliban is a hesitant “work in progress”. There is a perception among some experts that China entirely accepted the Taliban’s role in the future Afghan government. This is far from being true. Beijing is adjusting to the new reality created by the US withdrawal. Baidu, a popular Chinese search engine and encyclopedia, still defines the Taliban as “an Islamic fundamentalist movement organisation”. The Baidu encyclopedia entry distinguishes between the Pakistan Taliban and Afghan Taliban.
An analysis of the Chinese media coverage and social media trends on the emerging situation in Afghanistan gives us some idea of the country’s position vis a vis Taliban. On Chinese social media, people are trying to make sense of what comes next for Afghanistan – and China. There has been some jubilation over the US’ “mismanagement” of the withdrawal. “US troops shoot Afghan civilians in Afghanistan” was the 3rd trend on Baidu. “Taliban soldiers say that the United States lost in front of the US Embassy” was a prominent trend on Weibo with the hashtag viewed 140 million times. Videos of the Taliban leaders and fighters giving interviews to international media organisations was also discussed on Weibo.
The media narrative
“Newspapers reported Taliban’s drama to international people” was a trend related to an interview by Chinese media outlet Phoenix News. A journalist from Phoenix News in Kabul asked some local Afghans about the Taliban’s take over, who responded by saying, “Everything is fine”.
IFeng News – also owned by Phoenix News – published an article titled The Taliban came to power, the United States failed? China needs to be wary of a possibility.
“For China, the collapse of the United States in Afghanistan is not necessarily a complete failure, and the victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan is unclear for us,” said the article in IFeng. The report was popular on Weibo.
“But China is not experienced in mediating long-standing domestic political struggles in a foreign country, and it will be a learning process for Beijing,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy.
During the July meeting in Tianjin with Wang Yi, the Taliban had assured China they will not interfere in its “internal affairs” – they meant Xinjiang. China seems to have accepted the Taliban’s assurance. China, Russia and Pakistan are the only countries – besides a small mission by Indonesia – who have decided to maintain their embassy in Afghanistan. Taliban, that didn’t fully honour the agreement with the US and China, now has serious questions about dealing with the group.
The US’ presence in Afghanistan provided a net security blanket against fundamentalist activity spilling across the Wakhan Corridor. That security assurance is now gone, and China – though seen preparing – is still charting its course in a chaotic Afghanistan.
Also read: The people of Afghanistan are not fleeing from the Taliban. They are fleeing from Sharia law
Afghanistan a concern for China too
The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has been a matter of concern for China since 2012. In April this year, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian expressed concern about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
“The current security situation in Afghanistan is still complex and grim, and the problem of terrorism is far from being solved. Foreign troops stationed in Afghanistan should withdraw in a responsible and orderly manner to ensure a smooth transition in Afghanistan and to avoid terrorist forces from taking advantage of the chaos,” Zhao Lijian had said.
Despite these concerns, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met a Taliban delegation in July in Tianjin. “Afghan Taliban is an important military and political force in Afghanistan and is expected to play an important role in the country’s peace, reconciliation, and reconstruction process,” Wang Yi said at a meeting with the Taliban leadership.
At the meeting, China is said to have “dangled promises of economic aid and investment” in hopes that the Taliban will allow them to conduct business operations on its territory.
In the past weeks, Chinese experts and commentators have sought to convey the thinking behind China’s rapprochement towards the Taliban.
Wang Yiwei, Director of the Center for European Studies at the Renmin University of China, calls Taliban the “Liberation Army” and compares the take-over of Taliban to the so-called “liberation of Tibet”. He says Afghanistan is “demonised” by the US.
Chinese State media have initiated a campaign to justify ties with the Taliban. Hu Xi Jin, Editor-in-Chief of nationalist newspaper Global Times wrote three posts in Chinese on Weibo.
Even a close reading of the Chinese foreign ministry’s statements will reveal that China’s relationship with the Taliban is one full of reluctance. Despite growing rapprochement towards the Taliban since 2015, the Chinese government didn’t abandon the relationship with the Afghan government.
After the death of Mullah Omar in 2015, China was left with little sway within the Afghan Taliban and had to reinitiate a dialogue.
In his call with US Secretary of State on Monday, Wang Yi said, “China is willing to communicate with the US to promote the realisation of a soft landing on the Afghan issue so that Afghanistan will no longer have a new civil war or humanitarian disaster, and it will no longer be a breeding ground for terrorism and encourage Afghanistan to establish an open country that is in line with Afghan national conditions. Inclusive political structure”.
On Monday, China expressed its views on the Afghanistan situation at the special session of the Security Council.
“Afghanistan must never again become heaven for terrorists. This is the bottom line that must be held firmly for any future political solution in Afghanistan,” said Geng Shuang, China’s ambassador to the UN, at a special session on the situation in Afghanistan.
Geng then named ISIS, al-Qaeda and ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement) as terrorists that China believes may witness a revival in Afghanistan.
The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist. He was previously a China media journalist at the BBC World Service. He tweets @aadilbrar. Views are personal.
(Edited by Anurag Chaubey)