As the 2024 Lok Sabha election inches closer to its final phase, there is growing debate about whether the Bharatiya Janata Party will reach its ambitious target of 400 seats. Political analyst and Swaraj India founder Yogendra Yadav argues that the party might not even be able to secure a simple majority of 272 seats, while political experts such as Rahul Verma and Prashant Kishore predict a sweep like 2019. Increasing crowds at Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi’s election rallies are being seen as signs of the Opposition’s improved performance.
So, has it truly outmanoeuvred the ruling party in this battle of narratives? Based on the sequence of events in Uttar Pradesh, I analyse the factors that have likely bolstered the opposing camp’s performance, as well as the narratives and issues that have helped the BJP.
What’s helping the Opposition?
Opposition parties appear to have gained significant momentum after the second round of voting. One pivotal factor has been the rumour that the BJP plans to end reservation and change the Constitution. Statements by Rajasthan Deputy Chief Minister Diya Kumari and BJP’s Faizabad MP Lallu Singh, for instance, have sparked fear about change in Constitution among Dalit voters in the Awadh and Poorvanchal regions. Both leaders belong to the Rajput community, and Dalits in these regions have historically resisted Rajput domination through constitutional rights. Therefore, their fears regarding such statements are understandable.
Furthermore, irregularities in implementing reservation policies in state teacher recruitment – and UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s reluctance to address it – have led to a perception that the government plans to abolish reservation too. Besides, non-Yadav OBC social groups like the Kurmis (who previously supported the BJP) also seem to be shifting toward the Opposition, a pivot likely caused by the issue of a lack of government jobs in the state.
The government’s failure to provide government jobs in UP due to repeated exam paper leaks is fuelling an anti-BJP sentiment in the state. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s frequent rhetoric against corruption, the paper leaks suggest otherwise. This has fostered a narrative that the government is unwilling to provide public sector jobs.
Government jobs are a highly sensitive issue in northern India. This is especially true for regions like Awadh, Eastern UP, and Bihar, where they are seen as a pathway to the middle class. Jobs in the Army, for instance, allow young men from low-income families to significantly improve their family’s financial status. The Agniveer scheme has dashed these hopes, creating widespread anger against the ruling dispensation.
Modi in his several recent interviews failed to address the government employment issue adequately. He would switch to discussing private sector jobs every time he was questioned about the problem. Private jobs hold little relevance for students preparing for competitive public sector exams in cities like Prayagraj. These interviews could have contributed to disillusionment among students, resulting in large and chaotic turnouts for Akhilesh and Rahul’s rallies in Prayagraj’s Phulpur.
Also Read: BJP isn’t defending itself against Congress charge on reservation. Worried for core voters
What works for BJP?
It would be erroneous to assume that nothing’s quite working for the BJP. Its labharthi (beneficiary) schemes continue to support the party. Free ration distribution and the Ayushman Bharat health insurance still resonate among poverty-ridden families who feel left out of reservation benefits. The women voters factor also remains significant – economic empowerment initiatives targeting women through self-help groups and transfer of gas subsidy in their account, continue to bolster the BJP’s appeal.
My analysis indicates that the Ayodhya Ram temple still significantly helps the BJP’s case, even though some commentators Ashutosh Varshney suggest otherwise. Voters who have visited Ayodhya and witnessed the development projects there are more likely to lean toward the BJP.
Moreover, three issues which are mentioned in the manifesto of Congress party can act as ‘silent killers’ of the Opposition, potentially resulting in the consolidation of upper caste votes for the BJP. First is the Congress party’s promise to extend the Economically Weaker Section (EWS) category to include Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes. Second is the promise of proportionate reservation and third is the pledge to ensure that minorities receive a fair share of public work tenders traditionally dominated by upper castes. These promises seem to have alarmed upper-caste voters and could prove detrimental to the Opposition alliance. Besides, the BJP is much stronger in terms of its organisational strength.
Both parties face significant challenges and opportunities as they vie for control in one of the most critical elections in recent history. And the outcome will, perhaps, critically hinge on narratives that resonate more powerfully with voters.
Arvind Kumar (@arvind_kumar__) is Assistant Professor at the Department of Law and Criminology, Royal Holloway, University of London. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
i can say this with certainty that any UC individual who knows about INC retrogressive stand on reservation will not vote for it. But congress thinks it will work in favour of it by aligning OBC towards it, which I doubt it. Because ‘threat’ spreads like wildfire. And this is a threat for UC. But It is not so much of attraction for OBC and SC, ST. We have seen how this played out in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh.
I believe any individual finding it difficult to get a job or aggravated by the lack of govt job would’ve already voted for INDIA alliance. Congress foolishly snubbed UC votes. I know it first hand. UC has the largest Unemployement rate among its population. And each individual affects its whole family.
All this reservation sigufa was because of nitish and lalu parties which are nothing but caste based parties. How congress thought it would be helpful for it is beyond my understanding. It has already misfired which is apparent when Rahul uses “garib general cast” in his recent speeches. Rahul gandhi doesn’t understand indian society. He lacks political acumen as well. Since it is seen that BJP is losing its appeal in all sections of society, this foolish stand of congress is a much needed breather for the BJP.
Rahul is nothing but a prince, and he certainly has no vision and will, usually resort to appeasement to compensate for his lack of understanding of politics. Raga world understanding keep revolving around Gandhi, Nehru cliche principles. He has no understanding of his own, no free thinking etc. Those who keep harping on the name of Gandhi and Nehru don’t have faith in their ability to reason and they find those names as a shortcut to pass on their faulty thoughts and compensate for their lack of their own free thoughts.
I am saying all this being an UC myself. I want INDIA alliance to win, basically because I don’t like Modi dictatorship. But I also don’t like Pappu as well.