Politics of the country in the last quarter of 2019 took curious undeterminable and unpredictable turns. In May 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led his party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to an unprecedented victory in the Lok Sabha election with an improved mandate bettering his own record of 2014 and by the end of the year it appeared to be floundering.
In normal course and in ordinary times, it is only just over six months and few days and therefore an unthinkable proposition for a scenario particularly that of politics to undergo a substantial change but exceptional times dictate unexplainable turns and twists and that seems to be happening.
History repeats itself but if we want to assume that at present the political situation in India is a repeat of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s primeministerial years between 1971-77, then the country shall have the answer to this by the year end.
The year ended with nation wide agitations with youth, students and civil society joining hands to oppose the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), 2019 and the proposed National Register of Citizens (NRC) giving the opposition a chance to regroup and realign, signalling a possible change in the national politics. It was also reflected in the electoral victory of the Jharkhand Mukti Mocha-the Congress-the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance in the tribal state of Jharkhand.
Notwithstanding people’s protests and setbacks in assembly elections in Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand, the ruling party in the Union capital led by Modi and his confidante Union Home Minister Amit Shah remained aggressively belligerent to deal with the developing political situation by eventually dubbing the opposition to the CAA and NRC as a Hindu versus Muslim issue thus polarizing the society hoping for the BJP’s electoral advantage.
Also read: Why electorally secure Modi govt cracked down on CAA protesters so brutally
On the other hand, developments of last three months seems to have energized a thoroughly demoralised opposition that has begun to see an opportunity for itself. Electoral victory in Jharkhand and coming to power in Maharashtra along with opposition to the NRC by some of the NDA alliance partners has provided further traction to the opposition. The opposition, ranging from regional parties via the Congress to the left, received a boost when a resolution against the CAA, was adopted by the Kerala assembly that went on to unnerve the Modi government fearing that more opposition ruled states may proceed on the same track creating a serious constitutional crisis- a challenge to federal polity.
In succession within the first month of the second term, the BJP government enacted Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Act, 2019 ending the Islamic practice of ‘triple talaq’ that had been stalled in Parliament by the opposition since 2017 when it was first introduced. The government had brought in an ordinance on the subject first in 2018 and then in 2019.
The BJP had gone for state assembly elections in October in the states of Haryana and Maharashtra with a confidence of being sure that both Devendra Fadnavis and Manohar Lal Khattar government would return to power with a strengthened mandate improving the electoral record of 2014. In Haryana the BJP went on its own strength confident of the popularity of the Khattar government that had given all 10 seats to the party in the Lok Sabha couple of months ago, the party had observed enough caution in Maharashtra by keeping its old ally-Shiv Sena in good humour by conceding some ground.
Though electoral results on October 24 caused a setback when in both states, the BJP fell below its 2014 performance, yet it could form the government in Haryana with the help of a regional party while in Maharashtra it failed to retain power taking a principled stand refusing to give chief ministerial position to the Shiv Sena that was its junior in term of number of seats. In the process, it ended losing the state paving the way for its most disliked if not the most hated opponent-the Congress-to sneak into power in company of the NCP and the Shiv Sena that obviously fulfilled its long term ambition of occupying the chief ministerial chair.
Despite setbacks, the Modi-Shah duo went ahead with its long-term agenda and pushed the CAA through the two houses of Parliament that facilitated citizenship to persecuted Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Buddhists, Jains and Parsis from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan leaving Muslims outside of the provisions amended Act. The Home Minister also promised to the nation both from the floors of parliament as well as in his public meetings to bring the NRC.
In Jharkhand electoral battle, neither the cry of nationalism strengthened with the dose of the CAA and NRC nor the Modi’s charisma helped the BJP to retain power but a change in political climate at the state level became apparent. Whether this would impact the mood at the national level or not is too far to judge since the next general elections are due in 2024 only.
Coming assembly elections in Delhi in February are going to be the next test of the Modi’s hold on people and Shah’s electoral strategy on the ground whose outcome would form the initial contours of the emerging national politics as the BJP is trying to oust the Aam Admi Party (AAP) of Chief Minister Avind Kejriwal. The Congress, that had been completely routed in 2015 assembly elections failing to even open its electoral account in the 70-member assembly with the BJP just winning three seats, too would strive to revive its political fortunes.
Between Delhi and Bihar elections, scheduled to take place in October this year, shape of the politics would become more clear as it would become evident whether the BJP’s present vulnerabilities further deepen conceding space to the opposition or it is overcomed by Modi-Shah duo?
Also read: Modi govt now snubbing critics in other countries too. And US, UK won’t hold back for long
The author is Visiting Fellow at Observer Research Foundation. Views are personal.
This article was first published on ORF.
Our armies are dying on border, poor people are dying on street, millions of migrants include kids and 70+ are walking 300-700km on barefeel without shelter and food, but useless feku gov was using Covid crisis on building up fake image, advertisement using 93% popularity fake survey, paid news, hyper active BJP IT cell… they want use pak and hindu name for begging vote. where is fake chor chokidar now? feku gov can’t even have good relationship with small neighbouring hindu nepal country desite 10000 crs taxpayer money wasted on feku 100s of feku foreign tour.
can’t protect border,
can’t protect army,
can’t stop locusts coming fromm Pak
can’t project poor migrants,
can’t pay salary to doctors risking life to save patients from COVID
can’t protect helpless women and kids and
can’t protect economy,
can’t protect government department,
can’t protect jobs
WHY DO INDIA NEED UNEDUCATED FAKE LIAR CON ARTIST HINDI PRACHARAK (NAMO NO Action MORE TALK) WHO WORK FOR FEW RICH BUSINESSMEN, TAKE CREDIT OF OTHER HARD WORK FOR PUBLICITY, AND USE CELEBRITY FOR OWN ADVERTISEMENT. WHY DO INDIA NEED COSTLY BURDEN UNEDUCATED FAILED LIAR SHOW MAN AS PM
You will vomit if you listen uneducated fake degree gujarati feku lie election rally..
Look at how much chaiwal fake chokidar feku is burden for country and year cost
700crs for security
500crs for private jet
15-20crs designer clothes,topi,sunglass,style
2500crs for foreign tour (excluded security and clothes)
3500crs for bjp state election rally (365/3*30cr per rally)
3000-5000crs for advertisement (spreading fake news, for defending fake news, tarnishing other image)
The man was rotating his finger, closed his eyes and momentarily, how it will feel to imagine Sonia Gandhi family for helicopter fraud since they now have the motor mouth who will spill all the beans. Boy he was in Heaven then imagining his dream. Six years or nearly six, have gone by and his dream is still unfulfilled and yet another promise remains incomplete. Sheesh, what a loose mouth this one is.
INDIRA GANDHI’S CHARACTER WAS FORGED IN THE FIRE OF INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT AND WAS A THOROUGH NATIONALIST THROUGH & THROUGH . ANY COMPARISON WITH HER OF TODAY’S POLITICIANS IS NOT ONLY ODIOUS, BUT ALSO REPULSIVE
I have been an admirer of Mrs Indira Gandhi from leadership perspective. However, I have also accepted the fact that leaders are GREY personalities. There is nothing black or white about them. Indira Gandhi was a fine example of that and so is Modi. Yes, some of us who are proud of India’s independence movement, do find it hard to take any criticism for the leaders of that era. But it is history that judges them more than our opinions at this time and space.
And BTW, I still have the newspaper cutting framed of OBAMA winning the presidential elections, but over time realised that he was just a regular president hyped up by liberal press, perhaps just because he knew how to speak professionally. Not that it is NOT a good trait but that doesn’t mean every leader needs to be like him.
After the champagne flutes had been put away in May, serious thought ought to have been given to the question, What do we do with this superior mandate ? The answer should have been a statesmanlike blend of what was promised to the people, starting five years earlier, what it is they most needed and what India’s long term interest demanded. Instead, all the stops pulled out for hard Hindutva. How this has been received nationally is playing out on our TV screens. History need not be repeated if we would learn from its unchanging lessons.