In the complex world of Indian politics, understanding voting behaviour is essential to comprehend the social dynamics at play. While much attention has been paid to the voting patterns of the Muslim electorate, the Hindu ‘upper’ caste’s consistent support for the Bharatiya Janata Party has largely gone unnoticed in academia. Pavithra Suryanarayan’s research paper is a notable exception.
From the 2014 Lok Sabha election to the 2022 assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Goa, and now in Karnataka, the BJP has remained the party of choice for Brahmins and other dominant caste groups. This predictability in their voting behaviour is similar to the Muslims’ voting preferences over time. When a community becomes so closely wedded to a single party, it carries serious policy implications in a democracy. Are Brahmin voters the new Muslims of India?
I look at the steadfast voting behaviour of Hindu ‘upper’ castes and Muslims, and analyse its implications for Indian politics. I choose these two groups since their voting behaviours display an almost ossified pattern. One group largely supports the BJP, whereas the other votes for any political formation that emerges as a challenger to the BJP.
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A Hindu-Muslim parallel
Brahmins, Rajputs, Vaishyas, and other ‘upper’ caste Hindus have shown unwavering support for the BJP since 2014. Various studies and post-poll analyses support this observation.
According to a post-poll analysis conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) on the 2014 Lok Sabha election in UP, an overwhelming majority of Hindu upper castes voted for the BJP. Specifically, 72 per cent of Brahmins, 77 per cent of Rajputs, 71 per cent of Vaishyas, and 79 per cent of other upper castes cast their votes in favour of the BJP.
These numbers further increased in the 2019 election, with the BJP receiving support from 82 per cent of Brahmins, 89 per cent of Rajputs, 70 per cent of Vaishyas, and 84 per cent of other upper castes. While there may be slight variations in data collected by different organisations, the overall trend remains consistent.
This trend is mirrored on the national level as well. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, over 60 per cent of Brahmins and nearly 50 per cent of other upper caste voters across the country supported the BJP. Five years later, 61 per cent of upper caste voters across India — and a staggering 73 per cent of upper caste voters in Bihar — chose the BJP. Furthermore, a CSDS analysis of the 2022 Uttarakhand election revealed that Thakurs and Brahmins overwhelmingly favoured the BJP.
Moving westward, the BJP enjoyed the support of half the Hindu upper caste voters in the Goa assembly election. The 2023 Karnataka assembly polls showcased a similar pattern, with a significant 64 per cent of Lingayats, an influential community in the state, voting in favour of the BJP, according to a poll conducted by India Today.
Muslims across India have been fixated in supporting any that challenges the BJP. Some scholars like Hilal Ahmed have argued that Muslims’ political participation cannot be understood by simply seeing them as a closed, homogeneous religious community. Citing a survey done by CSDS-Lokniti, he argued that Muslim voters consider various factors such as education, employment, and healthcare when determining their voting preferences in different contexts.
But an overwhelmingly large body of data suggests that the majority of Muslims prefer non-BJP parties. The trend continued in the Karnataka election.
Such voting behaviour reinforces stereotypes and unwittingly dilutes the political bargaining power of the voter community. Political parties may take the group’s support for granted, offering it fewer incentives to address its specific concerns or engage in meaningful negotiations to meet its demands. The phenomenon even leads to diminished representation.
And this has been most starkly observed among Muslims in India. Their consistent voting against the BJP has resulted in their influence waning over time, with political parties doing little to woo the community’s votes.
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Brahmins as the new Muslims and its fallout
A similar scenario could now be emerging among the Hindu upper castes. By consistently supporting the BJP, the electorate risks diminishing its influence and political bargaining power, thus facing potential marginalisation within the political sphere.
A prime example of this potential trajectory was evident in the recent Karnataka cabinet formation, where none of the ministers initially appointed belonged to the Brahmin community who supported the BJP. This issue was addressed in the first cabinet expansion.
The Hindu upper caste community must recognise the possibility of facing a similar predicament if they continue to stay loyal to the BJP.
There are more fallouts of party loyalism. Hindu upper caste may inadvertently marginalise alternative voices within their community who may have different political preferences. This could lead to a lack of diverse perspectives and limited representation of the full range of views and interests within the community.
When a particular voting bloc’s support for a single party becomes assured, it risks losing the system of checks and balances that forces the party to address the community’s specific needs and demands. A dominant party with unwavering support may become complacent and less accountable to the electorate, thereby hindering the democratic process.
Lately, fixed voting behaviour within the Hindu upper castes may lead to a lack of diversity in policy discussions and decision-making. Parties may prioritise policies and agendas that align with the preferences of the dominant voting bloc, potentially disregarding the needs and aspirations of other sections of society.
It’s time for Indian voters, including the Hindu upper castes, to realise that votes are powerful tools for political negotiation. Every voting bloc must strive to retain its relevance and ensure that its demands are met. The key lies in the group’s ability to diversify its political choices and not exhaust its political currency prematurely. After all, the strength of democracy lies in its diversity of choice and the balance of power that it can bring about.
Dilip Mandal is the former managing editor of India Today Hindi Magazine, and has authored books on media and sociology. He tweets @Profdilipmandal. Views are personal.
(Edited by Humra Laeeq)