US President Donald Trump has given Pakistan’s establishment and Prime Minister Imran Khan something to celebrate about. As predicted, the meeting between Trump and Khan went well, too well, by the standards of Pakistanis eager for good news. Imran Khan can now return home to claim he has broken Pakistan’s international isolation, secured a central role in efforts for peace in Afghanistan, and even evoked Trump’s interest in the Kashmir question.
Imran Khan and the Pakistani establishment needed this break, however brief it might turn out to be. Trump embracing Khan will put off China, even if the Chinese maintain their usual inscrutability and refrain from public expressions of concern. Pakistan’s economy continues to be in decline and there is no sign of fresh investment. The country has borrowed $16 billion over the last one year, exports remain stagnant, and foreign exchange reserves have not increased beyond the $8 billion mark.
Moreover, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, Maryam Nawaz, has attracted massive crowds across Punjab province, demonstrating the precariousness of Imran Khan’s support in Pakistan’s most populous province. Heavy-handed tactics, the military’s backing, and a clampdown on media cannot change the fact that Maryam Nawaz is consolidating her father’s support base and becoming a popular challenger to Khan and the establishment.
In such an environment, a good meeting with Trump is a good break, never mind Khan’s previous statements about the United States and even Trump. But Trump’s affections are somewhat fickle, just as Khan is known for his U-Turns, something which he has not only defended but even proclaimed as the sign of ‘a real leader’.
Trump at his usual best
Just because he was hospitable does not mean Trump has suddenly become pro-Pakistan. He wants Pakistan’s help with a deal on Afghanistan and has, in return, dangled the prospect of help that he thinks Pakistan wants. Trump praised Pakistan and Imran Khan tactically, just as he praised North Korea’s Kim Jong Un as part of his standard procedure to try and get a deal.
Remember when Trump said he and Kim Jong Un had fallen in love? Or when he said he received a “beautiful letter” from North Korea’s murderous dictator, which he described as a sign of progress for denuclearisation talks? There has been no grand bargain in the Korean peninsula and Trump will soon realise that South Asia’s issues are also more complex than real estate negotiations.
For example, while Pakistan may have facilitated direct US negotiations with the Taliban, it is unlikely to stop providing the Taliban safe haven if they do not agree to a ceasefire and refuse to talk to the Afghan government. Trump likes America to win but, so far, the so-called Afghan peace talks just seem to be a recipe for an eventual Taliban victory.
Trump’s remarks about being able to end the war in Afghanistan in 10 days, presumably with weapons of mass destruction, have elicited a strong reaction from the otherwise quiet and gentle Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani. It could have the effect of uniting anti-Taliban Afghans, preparing them for a tough stance in what the US now calls ‘intra-Afghan dialogue.’
Also read: In US, Imran Khan & Bajwa want to replace suspicion with personal chemistry. It’s not easy
Khan’s short-lived moment of glory
The US has come a long way from the time when it sought an Afghan-led peace process and blamed Pakistan for the Taliban’s attacks inside Afghanistan. But even now, the Taliban remain the enemy and everyone knows where their leaders reside. If peace talks fail, Trump’s fantasy of ending the war with stronger firepower would inevitably involve damage to Pakistan.
Pakistan wants the US to pressure India into some new discussions over Kashmir in return for helping Americans talk to the Taliban. That might be beyond even America’s capabilities. Just as the Indian Ministry of External Affairs made clear in less than an hour of Trump’s remarks about US mediation over Kashmir, India will not budge from its position that India-Pakistan issues must be resolved bilaterally.
The US State Department has since walked back the comments about mediation, reiterating the US policy of letting India and Pakistan interact bilaterally. The US could ask India to resume talks with Pakistan, but India still has the ability to refuse until its complaints about Pakistan-based jihadi groups are addressed.
So, the optics of the Donald Trump-Imran Khan meeting notwithstanding, Pakistan is not in a very good position in its ties with the United States. Pakistanis want Trump and the US to solve the problems with their neighbouring countries and help Pakistan punch above its weight. But that will just not happen.
Trump reflects middle-class America’s sentiment when he says that the US cannot be the world’s policeman. A corollary to that is that America can also not be the world’s problem-solver.
Also read: Imran Khan’s US visit is for home audience. Bajwa’s Army will do the real talking
The glory of Imran Khan’s ‘great’ Oval Office meeting will be ephemeral. The real solution to Pakistan’s problems lies in ending militarism and militancy, building an economy that does not need constant infusions of debt and aid, seeking genuine friendship with neighbours including Afghanistan and India, and allowing the nation’s ethnic, religious, and political diversity to flourish. There seems to be no sign at the moment that Pakistan could achieve any of these.
Even if Pakistan is somehow able to fulfil American expectations in relation to Afghanistan, it is likely going to be disappointed in the end. The Afghan peace talks have given Pakistan a temporary transactional advantage. But once the US pulls out of Afghanistan, Pakistan’s importance for Trump will diminish.
Trump said during his meeting with Imran Khan that “Pakistan is a big country;” he could someday turn around and remember that India is even bigger.
Husain Haqqani, director for South and Central Asia at the Hudson Institute in Washington D.C., was Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States from 2008-11. His books include ‘Pakistan Between Mosque and Military,’ ‘India v Pakistan: Why Can’t we be Friends’ and ‘Reimagining Pakistan.’ Views are personal.
Well written article though not wholly supporting. The transitional nature of bilateral relationship is real that evolves around various decades. we saw 2010s the worst decade in relationship lets see another decade of honymood era. But I do have a question weathet its possible to have close relations with US with the civilian dress?
I want to correct Indian military personnel I mentioned in first comment was wrong. It’s 7,00,000.
PM IKhan did not seek or needed this meeting. PM’s 3 days visit and army cheif ‘s 6 days visit along with ISI chief. Mr. Haqqani is a failed Indian lobbyist who can cry in India but just like 3 days visit of khan has burnt down 20 years of Indian narratives that India spent billions., to ashes. Similarly three ground facts remain.
1- Afghan people majorly and USA wants settlement without India in Afghan with help of pak.
2- Indian players in pak and afghan are exposed and rooted out.
3- modi requested Kashmir mediation and Kashmir is out of 70,00,000 Indian military control.
Nice Article. Love the line “There has been no grand bargain in the Korean peninsula and Trump will soon realise that South Asia’s issues are also more complex than real estate negotiations.”.
Indeed, Pakistan should have known its relationship with US has always been transactional. When u look back at the Pakistani grievances against US, it has always been that US has used Pakistan. Some went to the extend of qualifying it “as a used condom”! Nobody in Pakistan seem to realize the bitter truth that Pakistan has a geopolitical advantage right now wrt Afghanistan issue and that once that issue is dealt with, Pakistan’s advantage will diminish drastically. What then?
But then one also realizes that whatever happens is what the Army wants and is to its advantage. Right now it wants money to flow in so it can keep buying arms. The nation can wait!
What really happened – is that president trump sent a strong signal. He clearly indicated he could ramp up the war and win it, against the taliban. However, pakistan is in a position to take care of the taliban.
Now the onus is on pakistan to deliver on promises made. Remember it was Imran Khan who sought the meeting. Now it would be really foolish if Imran Khan/Pakistan does not deliver, that would turn trump against them very quickly.
However if he delivers on promises, Pakistan can look forward to increased aid and trade as well.
India’s ass is on 🔥 fire, lol
Pakistan cannot be trusted at all. Right from civilian authority to military and intelligence, they have been perpetual liars. Afghans have been victims of terrorism exported by Pakistan in the last 40 years. It is cristle clear for Pakistani military that sooner or later it will loss some of its parts being not a natural country but a conglomeration of usurped lands of Baluch, Pushtoons and Sindhi. It is all these reasons that Pakistan has promoted terrorism and nurtured terrorists on permanent basis where they have been using FATA as a launch pad for terrorism in Afghanistan. Same is true for India where Pakistan has been exporting using the Afghan issue and attached it with Kashmir.
Excellent one Mr. Haqqani !
The events of the past couple of days will be very frustrating for India but this phase – as Mr. Husain Haqqani rightly points out – are a brief interregnum before comeuppance catches up with Pakistan. If anything these events will make the comeuppance evermore stiffer and bitter.
In the meanwhile, we will have to wait. And wait. And wait…
Paks have always been good at short term tactics. Big time losers in the long run. How else they could produce such a failed terrorist state, circulating the begging bowl constantly?!
Paks produce nothing to compete in the global economy. They can produce only terrorists.
Mr Haqqani is right. Trump is a clown and a serial liar whose words mean nothing.
Hussain Haqqani Sahab,
Your concern is no doubt heartfelt since you’ve been with nearly every political party in Pakistan’s history, you sold Pakistan’s secret while serving as a NON CAREER diplomat. You were then picked as Pakistan’s ambassador, while sitting in the US, by the notoriously corrupt Asif Ali Zardari government. Finally you were removed from your position in disgrace as “ambassador” because you were working against Pakistan in that position.
Pakistan needs your advice like we need a hike in the head. Don’t you worry about Pakistan. I know your concern is that of a parasite for its host, but IK has got this handled. Go chauffeur Bilal Zardari. Snake