The term “rogue state” was invented by the US, during the Clinton administration, and also abandoned during its tenure, with the term being replaced with the more benign “states of concern”. The term “rogue state” has never been defined properly except to lump those that the US was not happy with into one pejorative grouping.
At various points in time, the US has used the term to define North Korea, Afghanistan under the Taliban (the previous one under Mullah Omar), Cuba, Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Iran under the Ayatollahs, Syria under Bashar al-Assad, Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, Islamic State under Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, etc. More recently, some Latin American states like Venezuela have been lumped under the category, even though they were too small to threaten anybody.
Given the current state of the world, where two unending wars are killing thousands of people and many non-state actors are involved in terrorism and even attacks on critical supply chains and critical energy infrastructure, we should try to refine the term.
My own definition of a rogue state would run something like this: a state, or quasi-state, which not just indulges in terror, military strikes and regional or global destabilisation, but also threatens peace in general for reasons that go beyond its own survival. However, you could have a rogue state that fits both definitions: seeking survival and becoming a threat to the region due to its own military and covert operations. A paranoid state can be a rogue state too.
Given below is my own list of top 10 rogue states, even if some seem to be surprising arrivals on the list. Some of them are even robust democracies. I will start with No 10, and then end with the No 1 rogue state. Some are not states as commonly defined, and some are entities that exist at the sub-national level, but their ability to create mayhem and destabilise entire regions cannot be ignored.
No 10 rogue state: Turkey
Turkey is a perfect example of a country that is strategically located between Asia and Europe and also a part of Nato. It plays both sides (Russia and the US), and uses the threat to open its borders to immigrants to get the European Union to fall in line. In recent years it has been trying to revive it pivotal place in the Islamic world, something like what the Ottoman Caliphs had achieved. Ruled by an implacable Islamist, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey is building an alliance with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to create an Islamist pivot against Israel and the non-Islamist world, which includes India. Despite being a democracy, of sorts, Turkey has global ambitions and will play a destabilising role in Eurasia.
No 9 rogue state/s:
This is not one state, but many states (or parts of larger states) in Latin America which are run by narco-terrorists and where the state’s writ runs weak. These include some states in Mexico, parts of Colombia, parts of west Africa, and Myanmar, among others. These rogue states or sub-states controlled by non-state drug lords are a potent threat to neighbouring states and even countries which provide markets for drugs usage.
No 8 rogue state/s:
Again, there are multiple militaries or mini-states or militias here. The three terrorist organisations, the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza (till Israel neutralised a large part of its power), and the Houthis of Yemen fall into this category. They fit the definition of “rogue state” in the sense that they can end up attacking anybody – as the Houthis are doing right now against Saudi Arabia and the Hezbollah are doing to Israel.
No 7 rogue state/s:
Libya and Syria fall into this category. The end of the Gaddafi regime plunged Libya into a civil war, which can easily spiral into attacks in neighbouring states at some point. In Syria, former Islamic State actors are ruling the state, but while they currently remain in check, they could quite easily return to Islamist militancy and terror at some point if the central authority breaks down. One could add the Taliban government in Afghanistan to this list, but right now they seem keener to stay in power than threaten anyone else – apart from the tribal regions of Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
No 6 rogue state: North Korea
With North Korea we are entering familiar territory, for the simple reason that it is a paranoid state that is constantly at war with its own citizens and is, moreover, a nuclear power. Both South Korea and Japan worry about it endlessly.
No 5 rogue state: Russia
Even though Russia is not the economic power it once was, under Vladimir Putin it is hoping to regain some of its lost clout in the region, where there are independent states that were earlier part of the Soviet Union. While Russia is not going to war with them, it could try hand to ensure that only leaders aligned with Russian interests remain in power. The Ukraine war is the first direct military conflict Russia has initiated, and the blame must lie largely with Nato for trying to extend itself right up to Russia’s border. Putin will be willing to destabilise the whole of Europe to ensure that Ukraine remains neutral or neutralised. The war is now moving towards this conclusion, with Ukraine largely destroyed and dependent on European and US handouts to run its administration and army.
Rogue state No 4: Israel
Like Russia, Israel is India’s strategic partner, but it is paranoid, surrounded as it is by hostile Islamic states. The huge military capability gap between Israel and its neighbours makes it likely that it will keep destabilising the region. The war in West Asia, in which the US enthusiastically participated, has ended up in a near disaster for both. They easy victory they had hoped for by decapitating the Iranian leadership failed to materialise. But Israel will not give up its military and covert operations, and, given its utility for the US, it can count on Us support to destabilise the region.
Rogue state No 3: Iran
No surprise here, as Iran has not only managed to hold its own against the combined might of the US and Israel but also destabilised the entire neighbourhood by its drone and missile attacks on the Gulf states. Its state and non-state allies in Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza continue to give it strategic depth to destabilise the entire region, both through terrorism and denial of shipping routes for West Asia’s oil.
Rogue state No 2: Pakistan
In India, we know that Pakistan has been a rogue state for decades now. Most global terrorists have some Pakistani connection. With Turkey on its side, though not Saudi Arabia, it will now try to damage India again, both through terrorism and other kinds of economic warfare. With both the US and China now keen to slow down India’s rise, Pakistan has acquired new global clout and standing. Not just India, but the world should worry.
Rogue state No 1: USA
My top candidate for rogue state is Uncle Sam, the world’s primary superpower. Any country that can kidnap an elected President in another country (Venezuela), threaten allies in Europe over Greenland and get its way, create chaos in Libya and Syria, decapitate the heads of another sovereign state (Iran), bomb a capital city in Europe (Belgrade) for 78 days (to force it to let a province secede), goad Russia into a war over Ukraine (under Joe Biden) by endlessly expanding Nato, and start fires in his own Latin American backyard, is the world’s largest destabiliser. A country that now worries about its own machismo is a country that cannot be trusted to act in the larger interests of the world. The US is like a monkey with an automatic rifle in its hands. It has too much power to kill, and too little commonsense in its leadership and Deep State.
That is why I would call the USA rogue state No 1 in today’s world.
R Jagannathan is an editor and the former editorial director at Swarajya magazine. He tweets @TheJaggi. Views are personal.
This article has been republished from the author’s personal blog. Read the original article here.