Narendra Modi is down but not out.
Just because the BJP has lost critical state polls, which were dubbed ‘semi-finals’, there is no certainty that it will also lose the finals. It does appear a team less strong with the shock defeat, but it is still stronger than the opposition.
1. A timely warning
The election results on 11 December are a timely warning about the public mood. The warning may serve its purpose: Narendra Modi now knows where exactly the BJP stands in the public eye. It knows it can’t take 2019 for granted. It is not going to be re-elected on the basis of what it has done in five years – voters are clearly not too euphoric about it.
Modi has four months to shape a new narrative, show a new dream. He can see the writing on the wall – the big risks for him are farmers who are angry about not having enough money in their pockets, upper castes who feel they are being taken for granted, party workers who think the leaders have become too arrogant to listen to them.
Also read: BJP had 5 trump cards before this election, but that’s set to change now
2. No Congress wave
The Congress has won these states more because of the anti-incumbency wave against the BJP and less because of its positive message, although its promises on farm loan waivers and higher minimum support prices stood out. Only in Chhattisgarh has the Congress swept the state in a way that shows the change is transformative.
In Rajasthan, a state which habitually changes government every five years anyway, the Congress just about made it to the majority mark with an advantage of a mere 0.5 per cent in vote share. In Madhya Pradesh, not even that. Add the Modi factor to it in 2019, and you will see the BJP pick up more Lok Sabha seats in these states than the Congress.
3. Not a verdict against Modi
The reason for that is Brand Modi. It has taken a beating, but it may yet survive. In Rajasthan, Narendra Modi is perhaps more popular than in Uttar Pradesh. In Madhya Pradesh, both Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Narendra Modi enjoy a popular image – the anti-incumbency anger was directed at sitting MLAs and local BJP workers. I went around villages near Indore and asked people who they liked more, Modi or Shivraj? It was Modi all the way.
“2019 mein toh Modi ko hi dengay” was the refrain. I met many voters in and around Udaipur who were voting the Congress but insisted they’ll vote for Modi in 2019. Not the BJP, not the sitting MP, but Modi.
At least in these two states, any reporter who travelled found that people were not expressing anger against Modi but against their chief minister or MLAs.
Also read: This election loss has 10 lessons. BJP can choose to learn them or kiss 2019 goodbye
4. Shifting the burden of anti-incumbency
In these state elections, the BJP protected Brand Modi by not making the elections about Modi. It is quite possible they did so because they knew the public mood was not favourable. It seems the central BJP has quite successfully shifted the burden of anti-incumbency on to the state CMs, the MLAs and even party workers.
One narrative says Shivraj lost because of Modi’s policies – be it lower MSP for farmers or the public resentment over demonetisation, GST and the SC/ST Act. In Rajasthan, the process has been more open, with party supporters chanting “Modi tujhse bair nahi / Vasundhara teri chair nahi”.
In these states, voters have shed their anger in these polls. The Lok Sabha elections can now be comfortably about re-electing Modi.
It is possible that in other BJP-ruled states too, the party may try to shift Modi’s anti-incumbency to its state CMs. Through messenger apps such as RSS and WhatsApp and its hold over the mainstream media, Brand Modi is adept at setting the narrative in favour of the Prime Minister.
5. 2018 is not 2013
Historical precedent shows the incumbent central government can win or lose the general elections regardless of how it does in the semi-finals.
In 2013, the national mood was strongly against the Congress. The national mood today is nowhere as anti-establishment as it was in 2013. In 2013, the BJP consciously made the three state elections national in character since Narendra Modi had already been declared the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. In 2018, the BJP has consciously tried to make these state elections local, saving a diluted Brand Modi for the bigger battle.
Also read: How BJP loses: Whatever happened to Amit Shah’s Chanakyan strategies?
6. 2018 could be 1998
Yes it’s a big deal that the Congress party that seemed unable to stand on its two legs has stood up and shown it can still win elections. Yet, this is no guarantee the BJP will lose 2019. In 1998, the Congress had similarly won Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but 1999 saw a Vajpayee government.
In 2004, the Vajpayee-led BJP called for early elections precisely because it won these three states. And that’s how the Congress came to power.
Is 2018 more like 1998 or more like 2004?
1. On one hand, the Congress President can celebrate good performance of his party in the recently concluded Assembly election. On the other hand, BJP should do some critical assessment. Seniors in BJP are mature enough to know that reasons for setback in the assembly elections should be carefully analysed. 2. I feel that there are different probabilities after the Lok Sabha election, and two probabilities are: (a) BJP/NDA would not get a clear majority but Congress too does not get more 150 seats. (b) Regional parties in UP, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Odisha, West Bengal and Telangana together win about 200 seats and the Congress wins 100 seats. 3. When one discusses possibility of alliances that the Congress party can make with regional parties before the next year’s Lok Sabha election, one should not forget that the Congress party is weak in Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, West Bengal, Bihar, and the Eastern states too. In fact, credibility of Congress party as a national party has suffered during last few years. 4. To regain credibility, what should be done? More criticism of BJP and RSS will be of little assistance. Congress President has to think about what his party can do if NDA has to be defeated. 5. For a realistic assessment of its own strengths, senior Congressmen should spend some time to find out why Congress, a political party established in 1885, finds itself in a situation in which it has to seek alliances with parties like SP, RJD, NCP, BSP and many regional parties, whose survival is essentially based on caste-based politics.
Shivam Vij is out to curry favour with his bosses in Nagpur. The BJP will never come back to power in 2019. He must be day dreaming. Modi is a completely failed PM and he is as arrogant as Hitler with an inflated ego. I can tell Mr, Vij that the BJP will not cross the 150 mark in 2019,I have supported him for two years listening to his every speech word by word..Now not the moment he comes to TV i switch it off. He will go down Indian history as the worst PM India ever had. First I thought it was Deve Gowda and Chandra Shekhar. No it is Modi.
Kerala is not India.
One important message from these three elections is that urban citadels too are looking wobbly. No reason for complacency.
The most dumb article and obviously you cannot expect anything better on this website. I will give you 100 reasons why Modi would win .. 🙂 No great deal.
The dumb of the dumbest should now realise why the Rafale issue was promulgated so heavily by the media especially NDTV, AAJTAK and the likes, instigated by Congress JUST BEFORE THE FIVE STATE ELECTIONS.
I would be extremely excited to hear from Rajdeep Sardesai, Raj Kanwal, Pranay Roy and Barkha Dutt about their views in this context.
Comment: no Indian ya bharathiya wants nation to be successful at the cost of peace and harmony…
we want to be successful with our humanitarian content and lead by example to globe as vievakanad g…
not yogi and modi g…