New Delhi: India experienced the warmest February in 122 years with maximum temperatures reaching record heights this year. Northwest India bore the brunt of the heat, and there’s unlikely to be much respite in the coming months.
According to data by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the all-India maximum temperature in February this year reached 29.54 degrees Celsius — 1.7 degrees Celsius higher than normal — making it the warmest since 1901, it said Tuesday.
Regionally, northwest India faced the highest maximum abnormal temperatures, at 24.86 degrees, which is over three degrees higher than normal. Minimum temperatures also remained higher than normal, making this February the fifth-hottest on record.
This was down to a combination of factors, said senior IMD scientist S.C. Bhan in a press conference. “If you see the entire northern hemisphere, they got less rainfall because of reduced thunderstorms and rainfall activity, clear skies, and persistent anticyclone over this area, which led to higher temperatures,” he said.
The next few months are unlikely to bring respite, with the IMD forecasting higher than normal temperatures from March to May in northeast India, east and central India and some parts of northwest India. Normal to below normal maximum temperatures are most likely over remaining parts of the country.
“Forecasts suggest an enhanced probability for the occurrence of heatwaves over many regions of northwest and central India,” Bhan said.
Reduced rainfall is also likely over the northwest, west, and central regions next month, the IMD forecast says, adding that normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of peninsular India, parts of east central India and some isolated pockets of northeast India.
Also read: Why north India is seeing March-like temperatures in February
La Niña to El Niño
La Niña conditions — when there is a cooling of the Pacific Ocean, leading to low pressure over the western pacific and causing more rain in India — are still prevailing, but are likely to transition into El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions from February to April, the IMD has said.
La Niña has been persisting for three years now, since 2020.
“La Niña to Neutral conditions are still prevailing, but heating has been going on,” said Bhan.
An early forecast by the US’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed that an El Niño would develop later this year after three years of La Niña.
An El Niño causes abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean, negatively impacting Indian monsoon and resulting in higher global mean temperatures.
Also read: IMD issues ‘heat stress’ advisory to wheat farmers amid high temperatures