Guwahati: On a rainy afternoon in April, a patrol team of the Indian Army prepared to set out for routine intelligence operations in Upper Assam’s Tinsukia district. The dense forest cover and waterways in this region between Assam and Arunachal Pradesh have served as key navigational routes, used by the banned United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-Independent), to Myanmar.
Referring to intelligence inputs on the presence of rebels in the area, the junior commissioned officer leading the team of 20 jawans advised them to exercise restraint.
“They are our own boys,” he reminded the jawans. “They have been misled into waging a battle, but we do not need to shoot them. No one should fire at will. We should try to capture them, and show them the way to return home.”
Daily briefings like this one are a vital part of counter-insurgency operations, said a unit officer in Tinsukia, and in compliance with “constitutional requirements, policy, and procedural guidelines”.
In joint operations by security forces across Upper Assam in the past three years, 52 insurgents have surrendered, 260 individuals have been apprehended, and 110 weapons recovered.
Tinsukia is among the eight districts in Assam that are considered “Disturbed Areas” under the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, or AFSPA.
In these areas, the controversial law gives the armed forces the power “to fire upon or otherwise use force, even to the causing of death” upon those suspected of contravening the law, waging an armed conflict, or even “posing an imminent threat”.
But things seem to be slowly changing in northeast India, which has had a long and fraught history of insurgency.
According to the latest data released by the Ministry Home Affairs (MHA), there was a 74 per cent reduction in insurgency incidents in 2021 in comparison to 2014. Further, deaths of security personnel and civilians went down by 60 per cent and 84 per cent, respectively, in the same period.
Citing this “improved security situation”, the Narendra Modi government withdrew AFSPA from several parts of Assam, Manipur, and Nagaland last April.
In March 2023, the government announced the “historic” revocation of AFSPA from additional locations in these three states.
The 2022 move, significantly, came months after 14 civilians were killed in a counter-insurgency operation in Nagaland’s Mon district, which the Army and Union Home Minister Amit Shah described as a case of “mistaken identity”. The killings had led to protests demanding total withdrawal of AFSPA in Nagaland.
So, what do AFSPA rollbacks mean for the region? ThePrint takes a look at this year’s developments, the potential implications, and the continuing security challenges in the states where the changes have come into effect.
Latest AFSPA changes & what they mean
With the latest notification of 31 March, effective 1 April, AFSPA still applies in 8 Assam districts, but has been lifted from Lakhipur sub-division of Cachar. In Nagaland and Manipur, AFSPA has been removed from the jurisdictions of 3 and 4 police stations, respectively. However, the law has been newly applied to the limits of 1 police station in Arunachal Pradesh.
Defence sources told ThePrint that the revocation of AFSPA from particular areas means that the armed forces moving through these places for administrative and logistical purposes can still use security for protection, but cannot launch counter-insurgency operations. Instead, all such operations will be undertaken by the state police, and the Army will operate only when requested or requisitioned by the civil administration.
However, intelligence collection and sharing will continue even for de-notified areas, the government sources added.
The lifting of AFSPA from the additional locations has, in general, been welcomed by the Army and police personnel in the region, who hope to see further rollbacks — contingent upon the security situation in the region.
In Assam, for instance, senior police officials said they planned to “informally” push for the complete removal of AFSPA in the near future. At the same time, they are also tuned to the possibility of threats, such as in the run-up to ULFA’s ‘Raising Day’ on 7 April, for which security arrangements were ramped up.
Lieutenant General Shokin Chauhan (Retd), a former director-general of the Assam Rifles and ex-chairman of the Cease-Fire Monitoring Group, Northeast and Nagaland, said he welcomed the government’s initiative but called for the lifting of the law to be done “with great care”.
“There are different kinds of tribes in the northeast, and each tribe has its own problems. Greater responsibility lies with the government to protect them and provide them security,” he said.
“Lifting AFSPA from certain areas may result in insurgents seeking shelter in such places and rebuilding their bases in the hinterland,” he cautioned.
Assam
The central government imposed AFSPA throughout Assam on 27 November 1990, when ULFA-led insurgency was at its peak in the state. From August 2017 onwards, the Assam government declared the entire state as a disturbed area. The Act has been extended every 6 months with the state government reviewing the security situation.
AFSPA can come into effect only in Disturbed Areas, and the power to declare an area as such is vested with the central and state governments.
On 1 April last year, the central government announced the removal of AFSPA in 23 out of 33 districts (there are 31 districts currently), as well as the Silchar sub-division of Cachar district.
In March 2023, the Disturbed Area status was withdrawn from Lakhipur sub-division of Cachar district in South Assam’s Barak Valley, but was was extended for another 6 months in 8 districts — Tinsukia, Dibrugarh, Charaideo, Sivasagar, Jorhat, Golaghat, Karbi Anglong, and Dima Hasao.
The Cachar area had long witnessed the movement of insurgents from the neighbouring states of Manipur and Nagaland.
The decision to withdraw AFSPA from any area was taken after multiple deliberations with various stakeholders, state government sources said.
In recent years, there have been only sporadic incidents involving insurgents in Assam. On 9 February, an ULFA(I) field commander, Uttam Lahon alias Uday Asom, was killed in a police encounter in Tinsukia district. Police said they recovered a rifle, two grenades, and IED materials from his possession.
Similarly, on 1 July last year, senior ULFA leader and self-styled ‘lieutenant’, Gyan Asom, was killed in an encounter with Assam Police and the troops of Assam Rifles at Tinsukia district’s Kakopathar.
This year, there were security concerns ahead of ULFA’s Raising Day on 7 April, marking the 44th year since it was founded in 1979.
When ThePrint spoke to Assam Director General of Police (DGP) G.P. Singh earlier this week, he said instructions had been issued to senior superintendents of police to “ensure that no untoward incident” took place on the day or its run-up. “Special alert is to be maintained in Upper Assam districts and inter-state border areas of Upper Assam,” he added.
On the possibility of further reducing the Disturbed Areas in the state in the next 6 months, Singh said: “Formally, we are watching the situation and would take appropriate decision at an appropriate time. Informally, we would push for complete removal in the coming months.”
India shares a 1,643-km-long border with Myanmar in 4 northeastern states — Arunachal (520 km), Nagaland (215 km), Manipur (398 km), and Mizoram (510 km). The kinship and ethnic ties that exist between communities on both sides of the porous border in these states makes it convenient for insurgents from northeast India to set up bases in the thick jungles of Myanmar.
The reserve forests along the far ends of eastern Assam include Burhi Dihing-North and South Block, Kotha, Namphai, Tinkopani, Tirap, Tipong, and their additions. These tropical rainforests cover the plains of the Burhi-Dihing river flowing through Tinsukia and Dibrugarh districts, and the foothills of the Patkai mountain range, which forms a major part of the India-Myanmar border.
The Burhi-Dihing in Assam and the Noa Dihing river flowing through Changlang district in eastern Arunachal Pradesh act as navigational aids for the movement of rebels.
The other alternative for entering Myanmar is the Manabum reserve forest and areas of Miao-Vijaynagar Road in Arunachal. In November last year, the ULFA(I) took responsibility for an ambush on an Army patrol party along the Pengeri-Bordumsa Road connecting Assam and Arunachal.
Arunachal Pradesh
According to an MHA notification on 24 March, Chowkham police station in Arunachal Pradesh is a new “Disturbed Area” under AFSPA.
This comes along with an extension of AFSPA in the districts of Tirap, Changlang, and Longding bordering Assam, and two other police stations, Namsai and Mahadevpur.
Nagaland
In Nagaland, the central government has now withdrawn the application of the Disturbed Area tag from 3 police station areas in two districts — Akuluto and V.K. Town police stations in Zunheboto district, and Sungro police station in Wokha district.
These are in addition to the 15 police stations in 7 districts of Nagaland from where AFSPA was revoked on 1 April 2022.
However, AFSPA remains effective in 8 districts — Dimapur, Niuland, Chumoukedima, Mon, Kiphire, Noklak, Phek and Peren — and 21 police stations in 5 other districts of Nagaland for another 6 months.
Nagaland has had a long and difficult history under AFSPA.
On 17 April 1991, Mon district in Nagaland was initially notified a Disturbed Area by the central government. Four years later, in April 1995, the entire state was given this designation. The Centre continued this position vide a notification dated 22 July 2003, with Nagaland remaining under AFSPA for nearly a decade.
A big turning point came when 14 civilians were killed by a Special Forces unit of the Indian Army in Mon district on 4 December 2021.
The incident had led to widespread protests and demands by various organisations, student bodies, and tribal hohos (councils) to repeal AFSPA. Along with human rights activists, political leaders too demanded the repeal of the act from their respective states.
On 20 December 2021, the Nagaland legislative assembly unanimously passed a resolution demanding the repeal of AFSPA from the northeast, particularly Nagaland.
“The Mon incident is a reminder that continuous military operations do not bring permanent stability and peace to the region. Instead, such incidents and the imposition of AFSPA further reinforces the society’s insecurity and distrust towards the armed forces,” said Lt Gen Shokin Chauhan (Retd).
He added that such incidents tend to “inflame passions and local sentiment, making insurgent groups and their flawed narrative stronger”.
“It legitimises their continued extortion and recruitment of cadres,” he noted.
After the Mon incident, insurgent groups like the National Socialist Council of Nagalim-Isak Muivah (NSCN-IM) and NSCN (K-Khango) gave calls for Naga unity, invoking the spirit of “oneness and nationalism”.
The Nagaland government had formed a Special Investigation Team to probe the incident while the Army constituted a Court of Inquiry. The investigating teams have completed their enquiry, and the findings are being analysed, according to a PTI report in December last year.
Section 7 of the AFSPA offers protection to persons acting in good faith in their official capacity. The prosecution is permitted only after sanction of the central government.
Chauhan said that the Army hierarchy should be transparent in investigating allegations of human rights violations and exemplary punishment must be meted out where the charges are proved.
Manipur
AFSPA has been in force throughout Manipur since 1980. In 2004, however, the Okram Ibobi Singh-led Congress government announced that AFSPA had been withdrawn from 7 assembly constituencies in and around Imphal city.
In April 2022, the Disturbed Area notification was lifted from 15 police station areas in 6 districts. In 2023, 4 police stations were added to the list — Wangoi police station in Imphal West district, Leimakhong in Kangpokpi, and Nambol and Moirang police stations in Bishnupur district.
Building trust between the Army and the local population in Manipur remains a significant challenge, despite some progress.
Allegations of fake encounter killings have been levelled against the Indian Army, along with Assam Rifles and Manipur Police commandos, with more than 1,528 such cases reportedly occurring in the state between 2000 and 2012.
Over the years, the armed forces have conducted multiple operations throughout the state.
One notable location is Moirang’s Loktak Lake with its phumdis (floating islands), and home to indigenous Meitei families. Due to the surrounding areas of Loktak earlier being used as hiding grounds by insurgent groups, security forces undertook special operations here — Operation Loktak in 1999 and Operation Summer Storm in 2009, jointly launched by the Army and the state police. While these operations did yield success, they were also marred by allegations of human rights violations.
Through Operation Summer Storm, at least 12 insurgents of the proscribed People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) were killed in a 9-day operation at Keibul Lamjao National Park area near Loktak.
In the last few years, insurgency has simmered down, but a couple of incidents this year have raised security concerns.
On the eve of Republic Day, a blast in Ukhrul district left 3 people injured. PREPAK reportedly claimed responsibility for the blast.
This apart, Imphal valley-based insurgent groups have often warned against promoting Bollywood films and music in Manipur. On 4 February, a fashion show with Bollywood actor Sunny Leone as the show stopper had to be cancelled after a grenade blast took place at the venue in Hapta Kangjeibung, Imphal East. No casualty was reported.
‘Security threats from Myanmar, China’
Lt General Chauhan (Retd) said that phasing out AFPSA had to be done carefully and with stringent monitoring since there are also threats emanating from beyond India’s borders.
One such threat is insurgent groups that have set up bases in Myanmar.
“There is a need to continue monitoring parameters of normalcy, based on which such decisions have been taken. Even after the imposition of the AFSPA for more than 6 decades and the engagement of most insurgent groups in peace talks with the Indian government, the security threat persists from active outfits based out of Myanmar. These groups indulge in the smuggling of drugs, illegal weapons, and banned substances,” Chauhan said.
China, he added, was another problem. “China’s use of cyber-warfare, increased cross-border terrorism, the narcotics-arms nexus, illegal migration etc has adversely impacted the security of our already fragile Northeast,” he said.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)
Also read: Not just AFSPA, India must reboot counter-insurgency strategy & free Army from it