New Delhi: New tuberculosis (TB) vaccines could save an estimated 7.3 million lives and generate up to $135 billion in economic benefits in low- and middle-income countries between 2030 and 2050, according to an analysis released Monday by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, a global organisation that works to increase access to vaccines in low-income countries.
The vaccines, which could be available from 2029, are being developed to protect adolescents and adults against infectious TB in the lungs. They could help address a major gap in TB prevention, as the existing vaccine offers limited protection against pulmonary TB later in life.
TB is caused by bacteria that usually affect the lungs. It spreads through the air when people with infectious pulmonary TB cough, speak or sneeze. Although the disease can be prevented and treated, it continues to kill more people globally than any other single infectious disease.
Currently, the only licenced TB vaccine, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), is more than 100 years old. It protects infants and young children against severe forms of TB, but its protection against pulmonary TB—the form that affects the lungs and can spread through the air—is limited in older age groups.
The new vaccine candidates aim to prevent infectious pulmonary TB among adolescents and adults. If successful, they could strengthen existing prevention efforts, alongside testing, treatment and other measures to control the disease.
However, ensuring that countries with the highest disease burden receive enough affordable doses will be crucial to the vaccines’ success, Gavi said in its Early Market Shaping Roadmap for Novel TB Vaccines, released Monday.
The analysis estimates that demand for the vaccines in low- and middle-income countries could average 85 million courses annually. Demand could be higher in the initial years as countries seek to protect more people across different age groups.
“Novel TB vaccines could be the next blockbuster immunisation tool, however they will only realise their potential if we can ensure sufficient, predictable and affordable supply for those countries with the highest disease burden,” Gavi CEO Dr Sania Nishtar said in a statement.
She added that Gavi had begun working with partners to help countries secure the doses they would need when the vaccines become available.
TB remains one of the world’s biggest infectious disease threats, despite being preventable and curable. According to the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) 2025 Global Tuberculosis Report, 10.7 million people developed TB worldwide in 2024, while 1.23 million died from the disease.
India had an estimated 2.71 million TB cases and more than 3,00,000 deaths that year, accounting for nearly a quarter of the world’s cases.
Challenges before rollout
Although some candidates could receive regulatory approval by the end of this decade, Gavi’s roadmap identifies several challenges that could slow their introduction.
For instance, gaps in evidence could lead to recommendations covering only people at the highest risk, limiting wider use. Countries could also face difficulties financing vaccination programmes, while manufacturers may hesitate to invest in production capacity without clear information about future demand.
Gavi has outlined three objectives to address these challenges.
These include ensuring sufficient, timely and affordable vaccine supply, supporting widespread use through routine immunisation and targeted catch-up campaigns, and encouraging a competitive pipeline of vaccine candidates from manufacturers in different regions.
Several high-burden countries, including some hosting vaccine trials, have already begun preparing for potential rollout.
Gavi said it would continue working with partners through the WHO TB Vaccine Accelerator’s Finance & Access working group to support these efforts. The aim, it said, is to ensure that new TB vaccines reach countries with the greatest need as rapidly and equitably as possible once they become available.
(Edited by Viny Mishra)
Also read: Century after last TB vaccine, India’s Serum Institute partners with Gates MRI for novel jab